Samstag, 11. Oktober 2014

Offizielle Bestätigung vom SGE-Chef: Chinesische Goldnachfrage lag 2013 bei 2.000 physischen Tonnen

Hierzu ein aktuelles Statement von Peter Boehringer, Gründer der PBVV Vermögensberatung in München und Vorstand der Deutschen Edelmetall-Gesellschaft e.V.:

"Unten zK: der unabhängige Goldanalyst Koos Jansen, der schon seit längerem argumentiert und begründet, dass China etwa 1800-2000 Tonnen Gold p.a. nachfragt, wurde nun (zumindest mal für 2013) von berufener Stelle BESTÄTIGT. Und damit wurden zugleich die offiziellen aber seit Jahren manipulativ dubios niedrigen WGC-Zahlen (gut „1000 Tonnen“ für 2013) quasi offiziell „dementiert“. Der berufene Mund war Xu Luode, Chairman der Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). In einer Rede schon im Juni 2014 – aber von Koos jetzt verbreitet. Siehe unten Link. Wohlgemerkt: Das ist nur CHINAs Nachfrage. Der Rest der Welt inklusive Indien (geschätzte fast 1000 Tonnen Nachfrage p.a.) kann sich somit um –je nach Annahmen zum Minenoutput und Recycling– weitere 1000-2000 Tonnen Goldangebot p.a. kloppen. Ganz „logisch“, dass bei dieser physischen Marktlage der Goldpreis 2013 stark abfiel, nicht…"


SGE Chairman: 2013 Chinese Gold Demand Was 2000t
Published: 10-10-2014 18:23
SGE Chairman: 2013 Chinese Gold Demand Was 2000t
This is the final blow for the ones who still can't comprehend, after all evidence presented, the amount of Chinese non-government gold demand in 2013. At the LBMA forum in Singapore June 25, 2014, one of the keynote speakers was chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Xu Luode. In his speech he made a few very candid statements about Chinese consumer gold demandthat according to Xu reached 2,000 tonnes in 2013In contrast to the Word Gold Council (WGC) that states Chinese gold demand was 1,066 tonnes in 2013. Xu's speech has now finally been translated and published, in the LBMA magazine The Alchemist #75. 
Xu's statements once again confirm what I have been writing for months. SGE withdrawals equal Chinese wholesale demand:
import + mine + scrap = total supply = SGE withdrawals = wholesale demand
Let's go through a couple of quotes from Xu:  
Data on China’s gold imports has not previously been made available to the public. However, gold has historically been imported through Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is highly transparent, disclosing details such as the number of tonnes of gold imported on a monthly basis. Last year, China imported 1,540 tonnes of gold. Such imports, together with the 430 tonnes of gold we produced ourselves, means that we have, in effect, supplied approximately 2,000 tonnes of gold last year. 
The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China. Of course, we all know that the Chinese ‘dama’ [middle-aged women] accounts for a significant proportion in purchasing gold. So last year, our gold exchange’s inventory reduced by nearly 2,200 tonnes, of which 200 tonnes was recycled gold. 
Again, we can read the simplified equation (for 2013):
import (1540t) + mine (428t) + scrap (229t) = SGE withdrawals (2197t) 
Additionally, it's very clear what kind of metric the SGE uses. Xu subtracts recycled gold from SGE withdrawals to measure consumer demand, which equals newly added gold (import + mine = 1968t) to the private gold holdings of Chinese citizens. Confirming the Chinese gold market with the SGE at its core, is designed by the PBOC to track the quality and quantity of gold held in non-government reserves.  
By flipping the variables in the formula I was able to estimate Chinese import in 2013 (SGE withdrawals - mine - scrap = import) by an error margin of only 2.6 %. Year to date SGE withdrawals account for 1425 tonnes, of which I estimate 855 tonnes was imported. Western media are still focusing on the amount of gold Hong Kong net exports to China, which is dropping like a brick, as a proxy for Chinese imports. However, this data has dramatically lost its significance as China has openly announced it imports more gold directly into cities like Shanghai and Beijing. This was clearly communicated, see the next video from 1:14.
The Shanghai Customs department published a press release September 19 on their website saying they imported 48 batches of gold in the first eight months of this year worth $15 billion dollars, which roughly translates to 380 tonnes. Unfortunately the article does not say where this gold came from, but it very well supports the fact China continues to import large amounts of bullion, which can be seen by strong SGE withdrawal data. in September import has increased 30 % m/m. 
The strange thing is, there were many industry professionals and journalists in the room when Xu spoke at the LBMA forum (click for the delegate list), but only one of them rushed to his laptop during the break to share the content of Xu's speech, paramount information. He sent me an email that I immediately published for the whole world to read. This person was my friend and CEO of BullionStar, Torgny Persson.
However, there still hasn't been a single mainstream news outlet that has covered the immense discrepancy between the Chinese demand numbers from the WGC and the SGE. I would like to express my deepest concern about how the mainstream media is covering the (Chinese) gold market. Xu stated, at the most prominent precious metals forum in the world, Chinese gold demand reached 2,000 tonnes. By the way, later on in his speech he repeated it twice! 
Earlier, I have reported on the data that physical gold consumption in China’s gold market has, in effect, reached more than 2,000 tonnes last year.  All of you here are experts in this industry and are very clear about the percentage accounted for by these 2,000 tonnes of physical gold in the global market.
How could the press have missed this? A difference of 1,000 tonnes in Chinese non-government gold demand.
The first publication I posted about what Torgny emailed me from the LBMA forum can be found here. In the comment section underneath there is a conversation with Bron Suchecki who also listened to Xu's speech, however, he (and one other journalist) couldn't recall Xu saying Chinese demand hit 2,000 tonnes. Fortunately we know have it in black and white; Xu said it three times and other SGE officials have made the same statements.
I would recommend everyone to read the entire speech from Xu (here). 
Koos Jansen
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