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Mittwoch, 7. Oktober 2015

Morgan Stanley, mining stocks: "Emerging markets, miners a screaming buy"

Und auf einmal geht Morgan Stanley in den "Bullen-Modus" über - gewiss kein Zufall.

Der Hauptgrund für die heutige Kurs-Explosion bei den Blue Chips der Rohstoff- und Minenbranche:

Emerging markets, miners a screaming buy, says Morgan Stanley

Published: Oct 7, 2015 8:35 a.m. ET

Strategists lift mining sector to overweight from underweight

A one-two punch of global-growth jitters and a slump in commodity prices are freaking out investors. In that atmosphere investors have become skittish about buying battered stocks now.

Morgan Stanley, however, argues that the time to buy those assets is now.

In a Wednesday note, the investment firm makes the case that the stars are aligning to make emerging-markets and miner stocks a good fourth-quarter bet.

“While many investors remain wary of markets just here, we think we’re setting up for a strong 4Q rally, even if the next few weeks remain volatile.”Morgan Stanley

“We recommend investors raise their exposure to EM/commodities given the combination of very low sentiment, attractive relative valuations and a likely inflection in macro sentiment,” analysts led by Graham Secker, the bank’s chief European equity strategist, said in the report.

“While many investors remain wary of markets just here, we think we’re setting up for a strong 4Q rally, even if the next few weeks remain volatile.”

Morgan Stanley says the real boost should come from China. That is the same China that unsettled investors, sparking a global rout in markets this summer. The bank says improved news flow out of China on both economic growth and policy-making should lift sentiment across emerging markets.

Fears of a so-called hard landing in China, as Beijing attempts to manage a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, hit emerging-markets stocks and their currencies.

Emerging-market equity funds have seen 14 consecutive weeks of outflows, with the current outflows representing the largest since 2008, according to Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley argues that 10 weeks of outflows typically is a good contrarian buy signal and that “any sign of stabilization of EM data would be the catalyst to encourage investors to start to rotate away from their current positioning.”

To reflect the newfound bullish stance on emerging markets, Morgan Stanley made a round of recommendation changes.

First, they upgraded the mining sector to overweight from underweight, based on expectations for stronger demand in the short term and extremely low valuations. On a company specific basis, Morgan Stanley lifted Rio Tinto RIO, +7.48%RIO, +7.34% RIO, +3.29% and BHP Billiton BLT, +4.58% BHP, +3.20% BHP, +1.59% to overweight from equal weight and raised Anglo American AAL, +9.98% to equal weight from underweight.

Secondly, the strategists said they are increasing the weighting toward companies exposed to emerging markets at the expense of European stock exposure. Within their basket of overweight-rated stocks with China-exposure, they pointed to Burberry BRBY, +1.39% BURBY, +2.29% LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis VuittonMC, +1.10% BMW BMW, +4.08% and Swedish ball-bearing maker SKFSKFB, +0.19% to name a few.

And third, Morgan Stanley recommended an overweight position in the U.K.’s FTSE 100 UKX, -0.01% while going underweight the more domestic-driven FTSE 250 IndexMCX, -0.59% This is partly because of the FTSE 100’s heavy weighting in mining shares, as well as the benchmark’s underperformance over the past 12 months..


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