Donnerstag, 23. Oktober 2014

Schweizer Referendum zum Staatsgold: Erste Umfragen liefern spannende Ergebnisse

Hierzu die jüngsten Kommentare von Peter Boehringer:

"Interessanter Artikelhinweis zur Schweizer Goldinitiative (Referendum am 30.11.2014): Der N8waechter hat ein KingWorld-News-Interview mit Egon von Greyerz  übersetzt, in dem doch beachtliche Umfrageergebnisse einer Schweizer Zeitung zitiert werden:
„… Nun ist die erste Meinungsumfrage herausgekommen. Eine schweizer Zeitung hat die Meinungsumfrage gerade veröffentlicht. Das JA-Lager [Befürworter der Goldheimholung und Gold-Aufstockung] liegt bei 45 Prozent und das NEIN-Lager bei 39 Prozent, wobei 16 Prozent sich noch nicht entschieden haben. Das ist eine schockierende Entwicklung, denn die JA-Kampagne hat noch nicht einmal angefangen.“

ð  Noch nicht einmal angefangen“ ist natürlich nicht ganz korrekt. Die Schweizer Kollegen sind bereits durchaus rührig - und es wird in den kommenden Wochen eine Reihe weiterer Kampagnen-Veranstaltungen geben.
ð  Aber ja: der schweizer Mainstream hält mit geballter, gleichgeschalteter Medienmacht auf intellektuell niedrigstem aber leider wegen der Massenberichte doch einflussreichem Niveau übermächtig dagegen. Umso beeindruckender das o.g. Zwischenergebnis (das ich kaum für möglich gehalten hätte).

PS: So wichtig das Schweizer Referendum aus den auch von uns auf dem KOPP-Konferenz-Podium genannten Gründen auch ist: Rein quantitativ verblasst all das angesichts des chinesischen Goldhungers: die Chinesen scheren sich nicht um die europäischen Kämpfe der Bürger gegen die Zentralbanken. Sie KAUFEN EINFACH. En masse:  2013 waren es bereits 2200 Tonnen (!) – also das Doppelte der bei der SNB im Feuer stehenden Goldmenge!"


Swiss gold referendum: Early opinion poll strikes fear

The first opinion poll regarding the Swiss gold referendum suggests the ‘Yes’ campaign has started in the lead.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 22 Oct 2014 

The first Swiss opinion poll regarding the country’s gold referendum, which takes place at the end of November, will have struck fear into the country’s establishment, giving those in favour of the changes a lead. The poll was taken before the Yes campaign has even presented its case to the people in any detail, which it will do in a press conference tomorrow. The establishment, on the other hand, is totally against the proposal, saying that the passing of the referendum would stifle the future financial management options of the country’s economic policy makers. 
The poll proposal was started by Swiss People's Party MP Luzi Stamm and two other MPs, with the 100,000 signatures required for a referendum obtained by early 2013. TheSwiss People’s party is described as a national conservative and right-wing populist political party and is the largest party in the Federal Assembly, with 54 members of the National Council and 5 of the Council of States.

Referendum results – chart from King World News
The key points to be put forward in the referendum proposals include repatriation of foreign held Swiss gold, a moratorium on selling future gold holdings and perhaps most significantly to purchase sufficient gold to bring the precious metal held up to 20% of the country’s gold and currency reserves from the current 7.7%. This latter aim would involve, according to the writer’s calculations, the purchase of nearly 1,650 tonnes of gold to bring the nation’s holdings to around 2,700 tonnes, which would put it in third place amongst the world’s gold holding nations. It is suggested that such a purchase programme could put a rocket under the gold price, even if phased in over several years.
There is obviously plenty of time left for the Swiss elite to try and put their case across but, as was seen in the runup to the Scottish independence referendum, if they don’t play the media right they could help the anti-establishment cause, rather than turn things around in their favour. In Scotland, the Yes vote for independence gained momentum according to the polls throughout the campaign, and the more that the establishment spelt out what they saw as the disadvantages of independence (the ‘No’ campaign) the stronger the ‘Yes’ campaign performed.  In the event the Yes campaign failed but the difference here is that it was coming from a long way behind, while in Switzerland it seems that its ‘Yes’ campaign may be starting as the front runner.
Switzerland makes a fair number of key political decisions via the referendum process, but in most cases the status quo prevails and it had been assumed that the gold referendum would follow this pattern. This opinion poll really sets the cat among the pigeons.
According to a blog report on Mark O’Byrne’s  site the opinion poll cited was by the largest circulation newspaper in the country 20 Minuten – a morning free sheet. And the newspaper says that the poll was firstly a large one as opinion polls go with a sample of over 13,000 people and that it was organised by political scientists Lucas Leeman and Fabio Wasserfallen according to demographic, geographic and political variables and was weighted so that the sample corresponds as closely as possible the structure of the voting population.
In a comment on the referendum former US Congessman and Presidential candidate, the pro-gold Ron Paul says that Switzerland is ruled by a group of elites who are more concerned with their own status, well-being, and international reputation than with the good of the country. The gold referendum, if it is successful, would be a slap in the face to those elites.
Meanwhile Swiss fund manager Egon von Greyerz, whose views would put him naturally into the Yes camp, commented in an interview on King World News that the Swiss government is against this initiative, like all governments are, because it takes away from them their ability to manipulate the currency and gold markets. He goes on to say that the government continues to argue that gold is not good for the country. He noted that the Swiss Finance Minister called gold ‘A risky asset,’ and therefore not be held by Switzerland. However he goes on to make the point that in his view  she is totally wrong because it’s the Swiss franc that is risky, not gold. The Swiss franc has already fallen 50 percent against gold, he said, in just the last 15 years, and it’s gone down 90 percent against gold since 1914.
As a hard money Austrian school of economics adherent, von Greyerz reckons that, given the retention of the status quo if the No vote prevails, this will remain the case because governments always print unlimited amounts of money. He says that Switzerland has printed more than any other country in the world on a relative basis since 2008 - 400 billion Swiss francs in order to buy risky euro assets and other foreign currency assets in order to keep the Swiss franc low.
In von Greyerz’s view Switzerland has always prospered by having a strong currency, low inflation, and a strong economy. The Swiss have pegged the Swiss franc to the euro and the very weak economic zone that is Europe. This is a recipe for disaster he feels. To align the Swiss people to a failed political experiment like the EU can only lead to a catastrophic outcome.
Von Greyerz is hardly impartial in his views and has been working with the ‘Yes’ campaign in his home country. Speaking against the proposal, Thomas J Jordan, Chairman of the Swiss National Bank’s governing body said in a recent speech “...the gold initiative has a very direct impact on the SNB’s capacity to act. ..The initiators see a high level of gold reserves as a guarantee for currency stability. They fear that the Swiss franc will decline in value and that price stability will be threatened if a large proportion of the balance sheet does not consist of gold holdings. They are also concerned that the SNB’s gold reserves held abroad are not secure and will not be accessible in critical situations. We share the objectives the initiators put forward, such as maintaining currency and price stability and ensuring both the SNB’s capacity to act and its independence. However, the measures proposed to this effect are not suitable; in fact, they are even counterproductive. Instead, they are based on misunderstandings about the importance of gold in monetary policy and would compromise the SNB’s capacity to act in pursuing its monetary policy, which would run counter to the objectives envisaged. In other words, these measures would, in certain situations, considerably hinder the SNB in fulfilling its monetary policy mandate and be detrimental to Switzerland. We therefore consider it our duty to point out the serious disadvantages of the initiative already at an early stage.”
So here we have the ‘for and against’ arguments. Should the Yes vote win and the result be thus enshrined in the Swiss Constitution, there would be a likely strong positive impact on the gold price, although perhaps not as strong as some might suggest given that it could then take a couple of years to become law and the eventual gold purchase programme could take a further few years and thus have only a relatively small impact on global gold demand as it is doubtful the SNB would act quickly on this given its opposing views.
The chances of the Yes vote are perhaps stronger than initially envisaged. The Swiss are for the most part a conservative people and have gold imbued into their culture. The arguments to maintain the status quo are largely abstruse economic ones, while the Yes campaign will be a more emotive one which could well appeal more to the public. There is thus a good chance that the Swiss people will indeed, as Ron Paul says, vote for a slap in the face of the country’s elites, but don’t necessarily expect a Yes vote, should it arise, to provide anything more than a knee-jerk reaction in the gold price..

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