Dienstag, 30. September 2014

Spekulationen um goldgedeckten Yuan halten an: Basteln die Chinesen an einer neuen Weltleitwährung?

Neues aus der Gerüchteküche heute von ZH und Alan Greenspan:

Why Is China Hoarding Gold? Alan Greenspan Explains

Tyler Durden's picture

Remember when instead of pontificating on and explaining the consequences of three decades of devastating, ruinous, irresponsible Fed policies, and eagerly sharing ideas on how to "fix" these unfixable problems, Alan Greenspan was the primary culprit behind everything that is now wrong and broken with the world's financial system? Oh, and also was not an "Austrian" economist?
Good times.
Today we bring you the "other" Greenspan: the one who is blissfully unaware that, almost singlehandedly, he destroyed western capitalism, which is now living day to day, on borrowed time from one central bank printer to another. Ironically, the topic of his most recent Op-Ed for the Council of Foreign Relation's Foreign Affairs magazine, is none other than the default Kryptonite to every central banker, himself included if only a decade or so ago: gold.
And specifically the reason why, as we have covered consistently over the past 3 years, while the rest of the world is selling (if only paper gold), China just can't get enough of (physical) gold.
So for everyone curious what the world's most infamous central banker, probably of all time, thinks about China's gold hoarding ambitions, read on.
* * *
Why Beijing Is Buying
By Alan Greenspan, first posted in Foreign Affairs
If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country’s currency could take on unexpected strength in today’s international financial system. It would be a gamble, of course, for China to use part of its reserves to buy enough gold bullion to displace the United States from its position as the world’s largest holder of monetary gold. (As of spring 2014, U.S. holdings amounted to $328 billion.) But the penalty for being wrong, in terms of lost interest and the cost of storage, would be modest. For the rest of the world, gold prices would certainly rise, but only during the period of accumulation. They would likely fall back once China reached its goal.
The broader issue -- a return to the gold standard in any form -- is nowhere on anybody’s horizon. It has few supporters in today’s virtually universal embrace of fiat currencies and floating exchange rates. Yet gold has special properties that no other currency, with the possible exception of silver, can claim. For more than two millennia, gold has had virtually unquestioned acceptance as payment. It has never required the credit guarantee of a third party. No questions are raised when gold or direct claims to gold are offered in payment of an obligation; it was the only form of payment, for example, that exporters to Germany would accept as World War II was drawing to a close. Today, the acceptance of fiat money -- currency not backed by an asset of intrinsic value -- rests on the credit guarantee of sovereign nations endowed with effective taxing power, a guarantee that in crisis conditions has not always matched the universal acceptability of gold.
If the dollar or any other fiat currency were universally acceptable at all times, central banks would see no need to hold any gold. The fact that they do indicates that such currencies are not a universal substitute. Of the 30 advanced countries that report to the International Monetary Fund, only four hold no gold as part of their reserve balances. Indeed, at market prices, the gold held by the central banks of developed economies was worth $762 billion as of December 31, 2013, comprising 10.3 percent of their overall reserve balances. (The IMF held an additional $117 billion.) If, in the words of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, gold were a “barbarous relic,” central banks around the world would not have so much of an asset whose rate of return, including storage costs, is negative.
There have been several cases where policymakers have contemplated selling off gold bullion. In 1976, for example, I participated, as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, in a conversation in which then U.S. Treasury Secretary William Simon and then Federal Reserve Board Chair Arthur Burns met with President Gerald Ford to discuss Simon’s recommendation that the United States sell its 275 million ounces of gold and invest the proceeds in interest-earning assets. Whereas Simon, following the economist Milton Friedman’s view at that time, argued that gold no longer served any useful monetary purpose, Burns argued that gold was the ultimate crisis backstop to the dollar. The two advocates were unable to find common ground. In the end, Ford chose to do nothing. And to this day, the U.S. gold hoard has changed little, amounting to 261 million ounces.
I confronted the issue again as Fed chair in the 1990s, following a decline in the price of gold to under $300 an ounce. One of the periodic meetings of the G-10 governors was dedicated to the issue of the European members’ desire to pare their gold holdings. But they were aware that in competing with each other to sell, they could drive the price of gold down still further. They all agreed to an allocation arrangement of who would sell how much and when. Washington abstained. The arrangement was renewed in 2014. In a statement accompanying the announcement, the European Central Bank simply stated, “Gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves.”
Beijing, meanwhile, clearly has no ideological aversion to keeping gold. From 1980 to the end of 2002, Chinese authorities held on to nearly 13 million ounces. They boosted their holdings to 19 million ounces in December 2002, and to 34 million ounces in April 2009. At the end of 2013, China was the world’s fifth-largest sovereign holder of gold, behind only the United States (261 million ounces), Germany (109 million ounces), Italy (79 million ounces), and France (78 million ounces). The IMF had 90 million ounces.
However much gold China accumulates, though, a larger issue remains unresolved: whether free, unregulated capital markets can coexist with an authoritarian state. China has progressed a long way from the early initiatives of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. It is approaching the unthinkable goal of matching the United States in total GDP, even if only in terms of purchasing-power parity. But going forward, the large gains of recent years are going to become ever more difficult to sustain.
It thus seems unlikely that, in the years immediately ahead, China is going to be successful in vaulting over the United States technologically, more for political than economic reasons. A culture that is politically highly conformist leaves little room for unorthodox thinking. By definition, innovation requires stepping outside the bounds of conventional wisdom, which is always difficult in a society that inhibits freedom of speech and action.
To date, Beijing has been able to maintain a viable and largely politically stable society mainly because the political restraints of a one-party state have been offset by the degree to which the state is seen to provide economic growth and material wellbeing. But in the years ahead, that is less likely to be the case, as China’s growth rates slow and its competitive advantage narrows.

NexGen Energy: Nach starken Bohrresultaten auf dem fokussierten Uranprojekt folgen weitere signifikante Insiderkäufe

Sehr positive Insider-Transaktionen bestätigen das große Vertrauen der Firmen-Verantwortlichen in den zukünftigen Werdegang der jungen Uran-Explorationsfirma.

Zuletzt vermeldete NexGen Energy (TSX-V:NXE) weitere erfolgreiche Bohrungen in der fokussierten Arrow-Zone auf der Rook I-Liegenschaft, die sich zu 100% im Besitz der Juniorfirma befindet. Rook I ist in der hochgradigsten Uranförderregion der Welt lokalisiert (Athabasca Basin).  

NexGen's jüngste Trefferrate kann sich definitiv sehen lassen: 30 von 32 Bohrlöchern trafen auf Uran-Mineralisierungen und darunter waren einige sehr gute Treffer dabei. Dadurch konnte die Größe der mineralisierten Ressourcen-Zone gesteigert werden. Siehe hierzu die informative Drilling-Map unten.

Gegenwärtig laufen bereits die Vorbereitungen für das kommende Winterbohr-Programm..

Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es keine Verwunderung, dass Insider der Firma zuletzt kräftig ihre Beteiligungen aufgestockt haben. So schaffte es NexGen Energy bspw. gestern sogar in die Top-Liste der Insider-Aktivitäten an der TSX-Venture (TSX-V).

Mehr als 2,1 Mio. NexGen-Aktien wurden von Insidern erworben und so wandern zusätzliche Stücke in relativ feste Hände. Schon vor dieser signifikanten Transaktion lagen über 50% der Firmenanteile bei strategischen Investoren, Insidern inkl. Family & Friends..

Quelle: INK Research (inkresearch.com)

Die aktuellen Insider-Käufe reihen sich passend in die letzten, bedeutenden Insider-Transaktionen ein, welche durch die Bank positiv waren:

Sep 26/14 Sep 24/14 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 100,000 $0.360
Sep 26/14 Sep 23/14 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 400,000 $0.370
Sep 19/14 Sep 18/14 Patricio, Richard J. Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 100,000 $0.405
Sep 18/14 Sep 18/14 Patricio, Richard J. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 50,000 $0.410
Sep 18/14 Sep 17/14 Patricio, Richard J. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 50,000 $0.425
Sep 17/14 Sep 17/14 Ainsworth, Garrett Paul Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 100,000 $0.410
Aug 22/14 Aug 20/14 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 175,000 $0.430
Jun 12/14 Jun 11/14 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 150,000 $0.320

Quelle: https://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=nxe

Link zur aktuellen Firmen-Präsentation: http://www.nexgenenergy.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Sept-10-2014-NexGenArrow.pdf

NexGen Drills 123.90 m Total Composite Mineralization Including 10.13 m of Total Composite Off-scale at the Arrow Zone

September 17, 2014

NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX-V: NXE) (“NexGen” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce radioactivity results from the last two drill holes (AR-14-31 and -32) of the summer 2014 drilling program on the 100% owned Rook I property, Athabasca Basin, Saskatchewan.

Drill holes AR-14-31 and -32 were 15 m step outs to the northeast and southwest along strike from AR-14-30, which returned 206.6 m total composite mineralization including 53.85 m off-scale radioactivity (see news releases from August 26th, and September 3rd, 2014). The Company is also pleased to announce uranium geochemical results for drill holes RK-14-31 to -42 also reported in this news release. Figure 1 shows the 32 drill holes that have tested the Arrow zone to date. The down-hole gamma logs for AR-14-31 and -32 are shown in Figures 2 and 3.

  • AR-14-32 intersected 123.90 m total composite mineralization including 10.13 m off-scale radioactivity (>10,000 cps) within a 343.45 m section (328.15 to 671.60 m).
  • AR-14-31 intersected 107.9 m total composite mineralization within a 460.35 m section (186.00 to 646.35 m).
  • Strike length extension of the concentrated high grade uranium mineralization encountered in AR-14-30 has been confirmed.
  • RK-14-37 assays 1.08% U3O8 over 18.25 m (456.80 to 475.05 m), 1.31% U3O8 over 11.85 m (522.40 to 534.25 m), and 5.35% U3O8 over 4.60 m (569.6 to 574.2 m).
  • 30 of 32 drill holes completed at Arrow to date have intersected uranium mineralization.
  • SRK Consulting Inc. has been retained to review all data on the Arrow zone to assist with the optimization of targeting in future drill programs.  
  • Working capital of $6.5 million..
Link: http://www.nexgenenergy.ca/nexgen-drills-123-90-m-total-composite-mineralization-including-10-13-m-of-total-composite-off-scale-at-the-arrow-zone/

Quelle: nexgenenergy.ca


NexGen Energy: Aufstrebende Uran-Discovery im weltklasse Athabasca Becken in Kanada

Trotz sehr anspruchsvoller Lage im Uran-Sektor, schreiten ein paar Uran-Juniors signifikant voran und heben sich von der Masse ab. Herausragende Discoveries ziehen eben auch in einem Bärenmarkt..

Eurozone: Inflationsraten brechen weiter ein und markieren neues 5-Jahrestief

To sum it up:
"..In other words, the European economic collapse is bullish because it means more failed monetarist experiments to make rich richer. QE and D.." :)

Heutiges Update @ Zerohedge:

Eurozone Inflation Drops To Fresh 5 Year Low, EURUSD Tumbles

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2014 06:14 -0400

Anyone confused why futures are doing their best to surge in the overnight session, the answer is simple: first it was Japan reporting the latest batch of atrocious economic data, which an hour ago was followed by Europe own abysmal econofreakshow, where Eurostat just reported that in September Eurozone inflation rose a meager 0.3% from a year ago, the lowest annual increase since October 2009.This marks the 12th straight month that Euro inflation has been below 1%, and far below the ECB's goal of 2% inflation..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-30/eurozone-inflation-drops-fresh-5-year-low-eurusd-tumbles

Quelle: zerohedge.com


Quelle: yahoo.finance.com

Gold, Angebotspipeline: Peak-Gold-Minenproduktion immer wahrscheinlicher

Hierzu die jüngste Projektionen von SNL Metals & Mining, welche die jüngsten Aussagen von Goldcorp-Chef Chuck Jeannes stark untermauern..

Quelle: SNL Metals & Mining (snl.com) 


Branchengröße Goldcorp: CEO sieht Peak Gold bereits gekommen

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2014/09/branchengroe-goldcorp-ceo-sieht-peak.html

Quelle: SNL Metals & Mining (snl.com)

Chinesische Goldnachfrage bleibt an der Goldbörse Schanghai auf einem hohen Level

Während die westliche Welt im September erneut viel Papiergold auf den Markt wirft, decken sich die Chinesen mit physischem Gold ein.

Die physischen Gold-Auslieferungen an der Gold-Börse Shanghai (SGE) waren in diesem Jahr bis dahin alles andere als schwach - und ziehen in den letzten Wochen wieder stark an. 

Seit Jahresstart wurden bis zum 26. September 2014 (jüngster Stichtag) bereits mehr als 1.378 Tonnen (vs. totale Goldminenproduktion YTD bei ca. 2.100 Tonnen) physisches Gold in Shanghai ausgeliefert.

In den vergangenen Wochen hat sich die Menge der wöchentlichen Auslieferungen gegenüber den Vormonaten in der Spitze mehr als verdoppelt. So scheinen die Chinesen die aktuelle Goldpreis-Schwäche einmal mehr dankbar auszunutzen.

Damit löst die chinesische SGE auch in 2014 die amerikanische Termin-Gold-Börse COMEX (x-fach mehr Leverage, x-fach mehr reine Spekulation, x-fach mehr Papier-Gold inkl. naked gold shorts) als wichtigsten Spieler auf dem physischen Goldmarkt ab.

Quelle: bullionstar.com, SGE, UGS

Quelle: bullionstar.com, SGE

Montag, 29. September 2014

Extreme Stärke: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) setzt Rally die 11. Woche am Stück fort

Die enorme Stärke des US-Dollars hält auch letzte Woche an. Der U.S. Dollar-Index (DXY) steigt im Wochenverlauf um 1% an, markiert ein neues Mehrjahreshoch und läuft auf den höchsten Stand seit Frühsommer 2010. Die anhaltende Rally - ohne jegliche Korrektur - hat Seltenheitswert. Die Luft für weitere Anstiege wird somit immer dünner, eine Korrektur immer wahrscheinlicher. Die chart- und markttechnische Situation in einigen Währungspaaren ist massiv überverkauft, siehe bspw. JPY/USD, EUR/USD..

Quelle: de.investing.com

Quelle: bigcharts.com

Goldminen, Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI): Erneuter Test der 200-Punkte-Marke

Für den vielbeachteten Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) wäre die Verteidigung der 200-Punkte-Marke diese Woche von Bedeutung, nachdem der Goldminen-Index einen rabenschwarzen September-Monat mit massiven Verlusten erlitt. Unter dieser Marke liegt die vorerst "letzte" Unterstützungsbastion bei rund 188 Indexpunkten, dem Tief von Dezember 2013 inkl. des Mehrjahrestiefstands. Die chart- und markttechnische Situation ist im HUI kurzfristig extrem überverkauft.

Chart-Update kurz vor dem Quartalsende:

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Die Lage im renommierten Philadelphia Gold- & Silver Index (XAU) ist ebenfalls angespannt..

Quelle: bigcharts.com

Sonntag, 28. September 2014

Goldminenbranche Australien: Krise im Explorationssektor verschärft sich weiter

Goldproduzent Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) wendet sich erneut direkt an die Politik. Verzweiflung ist durch die Bank zu spüren. Die Baisse im Explorationssektor wird zu massiven Folgeschäden auf der zukünftigen Angebotsseite führen..

Northern Star calls for govt action on exploration
Photo: Bloomberg
25th September 2014 
PERTH (miningweekly.com) – Gold miner Northern Star Resources has called on the Western Australian government to invest more on exploration incentives, rather than lobbying an additional tax on the gold industry.
Speaking at a Western Australia Mining Club event, in Perth, Northern Star MD Bill Beament said the state government’s policy changes should reflect the changing reality, in which exploration in the state was not only declining, but in which Western Australia might see a dearth in gold projects over the next ten years.
“The simple truth is that the remaining deposits are deeper and harder to find. That means exploration is becoming an even higher-risk investment,” Beament said.
He echoed concerns previously expressed by the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies around the fact that Australia’s investment in exploration expenditure was at historical lows.
“We have an exploration crisis in my opinion, and if we don’t find more minerals at a far greater rate than is currently the case, the mining industry is going to die,” Beament said.
“This is a crisis that demands urgent and widespread attention and is currently getting neither. Instead, there are more debates about how governments can suck more money out of the industry.”
Beament said that a more effective way for the government to gain additional funds from the resource sector would be to increase royalty receipts by an increase in production, rather than increasing the royalty rates.
“To increase production, we need to find more gold. To find more gold, we need to increase exploration. The argument needs to focus on how we can increase the size of the pie, rather than how it is sliced. It needs to centre on how government policy can drive the next generation of exploration as the ultimate means of increasing royalty.”
The Western Australian government was currently undertaking a royalty review, which was expected to be completed by the end of 2014.
In its 2015/16 state budget, the state government announced that royalty income would account for over 25% of the government’s revenue in 2017/18, up from only 5% in 2003/4. By 2015/16, an additional A$560-million would be added to the royalty revenue.
Industry players, including Doray Minerals, Evolution Mining, Gold Fields, Newmont Asia Pacific, Northern Star Resources, Norton Gold Fields, Ramelius Resources, Regis Resources, Silver Lake Resources and St Barbara, have formed the Gold Royalty Response Group in an effort to raise awareness of what an increased royalty rate could mean to the industry.
Edited by: Mariaan Webb

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (INDEX)
Quelle: bigcharts.com

Abhängigkeit und implizierte Systemrelevanz der größten US-Banken steigt auf neues Allzeithoch

Lesenswerter Beitrag hierzu von ZH:

5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives

Tyler Durden's picture

When is the U.S. banking system going to crash?  I can sum it up in three words.  Watch the derivatives.  It used to be only four, but now there are five "too big to fail" banks in the United States that each have more than 40 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives.  Today, the U.S. national debt is sitting at a grand total of about 17.7 trillion dollars, so when we are talking about 40 trillion dollars we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable.  And unlike stocks and bonds, these derivatives do not represent "investments" in anything.  They can be incredibly complex, but essentially they are just paper wagers about what will happen in the future.  The truth is that derivatives trading is not too different from betting on baseball or football games.  Trading in derivatives is basically just a form of legalized gambling, and the "too big to fail" banks have transformed Wall Street into the largest casino in the history of the planet.  When this derivatives bubble bursts (and as surely as I am writing this it will), the pain that it will cause the global economy will be greater than words can describe.
If derivatives trading is so risky, then why do our big banks do it?
The answer to that question comes down to just one thing.
The "too big to fail" banks run up enormous profits from their derivatives trading.  According to the New York Times, U.S. banks "have nearly $280 trillion of derivatives on their books" even though the financial crisis of 2008 demonstrated how dangerous they could be...
American banks have nearly $280 trillion of derivatives on their books, and they earn some of their biggest profits from trading in them. But the 2008 crisis revealed how flaws in the market had allowed for dangerous buildups of risk at large Wall Street firms and worsened the run on the banking system.
The big banks have sophisticated computer models which are supposed to keep the system stable and help them manage these risks.
But all computer models are based on assumptions.
And all of those assumptions were originally made by flesh and blood people.
When a "black swan event" comes along such as a war, a major pandemic, an apocalyptic natural disaster or a collapse of a very large financial institution, these models can often break down very rapidly.
For example, the following is a brief excerpt from a Forbes article that describes what happened to the derivatives market when Lehman Brothers collapsed back in 2008...
Fast forward to the financial meltdown of 2008 and what do we see? America again was celebrating. The economy was booming. Everyone seemed to be getting wealthier, even though the warning signs were everywhere: too much borrowing, foolish investments, greedy banks, regulators asleep at the wheel, politicians eager to promote home-ownership for those who couldn’t afford it, and distinguished analysts openly predicting this could only end badly. And then, when Lehman Bros fell, the financial system froze and world economy almost collapsed. Why?

The root cause wasn’t just the reckless lending and the excessive risk taking. The problem at the core was a lack of transparency. After Lehman’s collapse, no one could understand any particular bank’s risks from derivative trading and so no bank wanted to lend to or trade with any other bank. Because all the big banks’ had been involved to an unknown degree in risky derivative trading, no one could tell whether any particular financial institution might suddenly implode.
After the last financial crisis, we were promised that this would be fixed.
But instead the problem has become much larger.
When the housing bubble burst back in 2007, the total notional value of derivatives contracts around the world had risen to about 500 trillion dollars.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, today the total notional value of derivatives contracts around the world has ballooned to a staggering 710 trillion dollars ($710,000,000,000,000).
And of course the heart of this derivatives bubble can be found on Wall Street.
What I am about to share with you is very troubling information.
I have shared similar numbers in the past, but for this article I went and got the very latest numbers from the OCC's most recent quarterly report.  As I mentioned above, there are now five "too big to fail" banks that each have more than 40 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives...
JPMorgan Chase

Total Assets: $2,476,986,000,000 (about 2.5 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $67,951,190,000,000 (more than 67 trillion dollars)


Total Assets: $1,894,736,000,000 (almost 1.9 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,944,502,000,000 (nearly 60 trillion dollars)

Goldman Sachs

Total Assets: $915,705,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,564,516,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)

Bank Of America

Total Assets: $2,152,533,000,000 (a bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,457,605,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)

Morgan Stanley

Total Assets: $831,381,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $44,946,153,000,000 (more than 44 trillion dollars)
And it isn't just U.S. banks that are engaged in this type of behavior.
As Zero Hedge recently detailed, German banking giant Deutsche Bank has more exposure to derivatives than any of the American banks listed above...
Deutsche has a total derivative exposure that amounts to €55 trillion or just about $75 trillion. That’s a trillion with a T, and is about 100 times greater than the €522 billion in deposits the bank has. It is also 5x greater than the GDP of Europe and more or less the same as the GDP of… the world.
For those looking forward to the day when these mammoth banks will collapse, you need to keep in mind that when they do go down the entire system is going to utterly fall apart.
At this point our economic system is so completely dependent on these banks that there is no way that it can function without them.
It is like a patient with an extremely advanced case of cancer.
Doctors can try to kill the cancer, but it is almost inevitable that the patient will die in the process.
The same thing could be said about our relationship with the "too big to fail" banks.  If they fail, so do the rest of us.
We were told that something would be done about the "too big to fail" problem after the last crisis, but it never happened.
In fact, as I have written about previously, the "too big to fail" banks have collectively gotten 37 percent larger since the last recession.
At this point, the five largest banks in the country account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States, and the six largest banks control 67 percent of all banking assets.
If those banks were to disappear tomorrow, we would not have much of an economy left.
But as you have just read about in this article, they are being more reckless than ever before.
We are steamrolling toward the greatest financial disaster in world history, and nobody is doing much of anything to stop it.
Things could have turned out very differently, but now we will reap the consequences for the very foolish decisions that we have made..