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25th of November 2015
Update
After a nasty and brutal sell-off starting mid of
October Gold has been consolidating between $1,064 and $1,095
over the last two weeks. Although we are very close to the potential
bottom zone around $980 - $1,035 Gold could still continue to consolidate
or even start a recovery. The extreme pessimism and the constructive
CoT-Data do support a bounce but it looks
like nobody wants to catch a falling knife here.
So the long expected final
move could indeed happen any time and within just a couple of
days. Price-wise I don't see much more downside risk (max
8.5%) but time-wise we could still be in for another round
of recovery before the bears finally manage to push prices down
towards $1,000.
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While commodity prices are still in a massive
downtrend, the US-Dollar continues to push higher. At the same time
the yield curve is flattening and negative real interest rates are
more and more obvious. Yet the Baltic Dry Index (as a representative
for global trade) is sitting at 12 year lows while the weak oil price
is killing the fracking business. The astronomic world wide debt
levels will never be paid back and central banks will continue to
flood the markets with liquidity just to keep this craziness going.
This will only lead to even more distortion and will diminish
accurate price signals. Deflation remains the name of the game and
what we are witnessing is very likely the final stage of a decades
long fiat money experiment. I believe we have to stay away from any
risk in these markets and prefer to be in cash even though it might
mean to loose purchasing power. My favorite asset classes remain Gold
and Bitcoin.
Gold because it represents a 5000-year old track record and freedom
from 3rd party risk. Bitcoin because it is traded in a free market
and represents the technology of the 21st century. Besides that real
estate with a positive cashflow and agriculture are two more asset
classes I do like. Stocks in general are probably overvalued and many
of them are already in a bear market.
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Great video about the biggest obstacle to your making
money in trading and investing.
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Midas Touch Gold Model Summary
Compared to last week we have the following changes:
New buy signals on the Gold
USD-Daily Chart, Gold Volatility CBOE Index,
Gold CoT-Report,
Gold Sentiment, Gold
in Indian Rupee, GDX Goldmines-Daily
Chart and US
Real Interest Rate.
New sell signals are coming from SPDR Gold Trust which
continues to loose its holdings and from the US-Dollar-Daily Chart. Gold Seasonality remains
supportive until second week of December.
Overall the model is in Neutral/SidewaysMode since 5 trading days.
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Gold Daily
Chart
Gold continues to behave pretty weak. Although $1,064 so
far has stopped the sell-off there is no indication of a major low
or even an intermediate bottom. The only bounce towards $1,095 was
quick, very short-lived and failed already below $1,105. Only
a daily close above $1,105 will open up the chance for a
recovery towards $1,130 and maybe higher.
As long as the slow stochastic remains bearishly
embedded the downtrend will continue. Once $1,064 is taken out
Gold should quickly drop towards my ultimate target zone between
$980 - $1,035. Here I do expect at least a huge recovery but more
likely the end of the bear market.
Overall we are getting very close to a huge opportunity
in the gold market on the long side!! Remain patient but
alert and do your homework to be ready once we are hitting $1,025.
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Recommendations
Swing-traders hopefully followed my recommendation to sell Gold
short between $1,175 - $ 1,180 and should now move their stops
to $1,095. You might be able to ride this winning trade down to
$1,025 where you should cover everything.
As well I recommend to place a multiple scale in "Gold
long" order between $1,035 and $980. E.g. 1/4 @ $1,035, 1/4 @
$1,020, 1/4 @ $1,005 and 1/4 @ $985.
Investors should now be very alert as we are approaching
another great buying opportunity below $1,050. If Gold goes below this
number buy with both hands until you have 10% of your networth in
physical Gold and Silver.
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Long-term
personal believes (my bias)
Gold is in a bear market and headed towards $1,035 -
$980. Once this bear is over a new bull-market should start and
push Gold towards $1,500 within 2-3 years.
Long-term price target DowJones/Gold-Ratio remains around 1:1.
Long-term price target Gold/Silver-Ratio remains
around 10:1 (for every ounce of gold there are 9 ounces of silver
mined, historically the ratio was at 15:1 during the
roman empire).
Long-term price target for Gold remains at
US$5,000 to US$8,900 per ounce within the next
5-10 years (depending on how much money will be printed..).
Fundamentally, as soon as the current bear market
is over Gold should start the final 3rd phase of this
long-term secular bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing
their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us
news about institutions and central banks buying or repatriating gold.
The coming 3rd and finally parabolic stage will end in the
distribution to small inexperienced new traders &
investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic.
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Disclaimer &
Limitation of Liability
The above represents the
opinion and analysis of Mr Florian Grummes, based on data available to
him, at the time of writing. Mr. Grummes's opinions are his own and are
not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Grummes
is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from
any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in the Midas Touch.
As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious
risk of loss, Mr. Grummes recommends that you consult with a qualified
investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in
your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when
making any kind of a transaction with financial
ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market
analyst, Florian Grummes is not a Registered Securities Advisor.
Therefore Mr. Grummes's opinions on the market and stocks can only be
construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are
subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered
Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate
regulations in your area of jurisdiction. The passing on and
reproduction of this report is only legal with a written permission of
the author. This report is free of charge. You can sign up here: http://eepurl.com/pOKDb
Hinweis gemäß § 34 WpHG (Deutschland):
Mitarbeiter
und Redakteure des Midas Touch Gold Newsletter halten folgende in
dieser Ausgabe besprochenen Wertpapiere: physisches Gold und Silber,
sowie Gold-Terminkontrakte.
Imprint & Legal
Disclosure
Anbieterkennzeichnung gemäß § 6 Teledienstgesetz (TDG)/Impressum bzw.
Informationen gem § 5 ECG, §14UGB, §24Mediengesetz
Herausgeber und verantwortlich im Sinne des Presserechts / inhaltlich
Verantwortlicher gemäß §6 MDStV
Florian Grummes
Hohenzollernstrasse 36
80801 München
Germany
E-Mail: info@goldnewsletter.de
Website: www.goldnewsletter.de
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