Gold Market Update
originally published March 22nd, 2015On our 8-year chart for gold we can see that to erase the bearish scenario shown associated with a deflationary implosion, gold has simply to break up upside from the long-term downtrend shown, which wouldn’t take all that much of a rally from here. Latest COTs suggest that is about to attempt to do this.
If the dollar index, shown at the top of this chart, is indeed burning out here, then gold is likely to get a powerful boost going forward as the dollar retreats.The immediate outlook for gold has improved dramatically following the dollar’s topping action of recent days after the Fed was rumbled, and the vast improvement in the COT structure of the past 2 weeks.
While the negative outlook set out in the last update could yet come to pass in the event of a deflationary implosion – and remains a risk until gold breaks out of the downtrend shown here on our 8-year chart – latest COTs certainly suggest that the risk has been averted for now.
In anticipation of the dollar reversing after the Fed meeting, we liquidated our PM sector short positions for a profit on the site and reversed to long, and the way things are shaping up we won’t need to close our long positions for a while.
On the short-term 6-month gold chart we can see recent action in more detail. On this chart we can see how gold started to rally immediately after the Fed and it has already succeeded in breaking out from the shorter-term downtrend in force from mid-January. Although the breakout from this downtrend is still only marginal, which normally would lead us to expect some backing and filling, the now highly favorable COT suggests that it will soon get on with it and continue higher..
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