Posts mit dem Label Dollar werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Posts mit dem Label Dollar werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Donnerstag, 8. Juni 2017
U.S. Dollar-Index fällt auf den tiefsten Stand seit der Wahl von Donald Trump
Der Höhenflug des US-Dollars kam in den letzten Monaten zum Erliegen..
Freitag, 18. November 2016
Dollar-Index erreicht neues Jahreshoch, Euro verzeichnet historische Verlustserie
Der viel beachtete USD-Index brach in den letzten Tagen über die markante Marke von 100 aus (Momentaufnahme) und erreichte ein neues Mehrjahreshoch. Parallel steigen die Chancen einer Zinserhöhung in den USA im Dezember auf den höchsten Stand YTD. Währenddessen befinden sich Euro und Yen zum US-Dollar in einem historischen Fall. Hierzu zwei aufschlussreiche Charts:
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Mittwoch, 31. August 2016
Dollar-Index (DXY) steigt 8. Tag in Folge, Rohstoff-Index (CRB) fällt 5. Tag in Folge
Die Dollar-Stärke wirkt sich wieder einmal negativ auf die Rohstoffe aus. Der U.S. Dollar-Index (DXY) steigt dabei bereits den 8. Tag in Folge an - das ist die längste Rally seit Juli 2014 (!):
Quelle: stockcharts.com
Quelle: stockcharts.com
Mittwoch, 6. Juli 2016
FOMC Minutes: FED stellt weitere Zinserhöhung in Aussicht
Hierzu der aktuelle Report von Zerohedge:
FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Wanted More Info Before Hiking
Since June's FOMC statement, bonds and bullion have been well bid with stocks unchanged as rate-hike hopes collapsed. For those looking to glean insight from a confused Fed's minutes today, we wish them luck. As WSJ notes, the minutes can prove to be dated and that will be especially so given that Brexit occurred just days after, so the best we could hope for from today's minutes was "what-ifs."
- *ALMOST ALL FED OFFICIALS SAW MAY PAYROLLS RAISING UNCERTAINTY
- *SOME OFFICIALS SAID LOWER PAYROLLS MAY SIGNAL BROADER SLOWDOWN
- *FOMC: PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR CONSEQUENCES OF U.K. VOTE
The key line however is the following:
Most judged that they would need to accumulate additional information on the labor market, production, and spending to help clarify how the economy was evolving in order to evaluate whether the stance of monetary policy should be adjusted.
In other words, nothing new as confusion continued, except for a Fed that is increasingly facing the realization that normalization is over as we draw readers' attention to the fact that the wordcount for 'uncertain' soared to 38.
Pre-Minutes: S&P Futs 2086, 10Y 1.385%, Gold $1367, BBDXY 1188.5
Further headlines:
- *MANY OFFICIALS SAID MAY PAYROLL REPORT UNDERSTATED JOB PACE
- *SOME FOMC MEMBERS ARGUED AGAINST DELAYING RATE HIKE TOO LONG
- *MOST OFFICIALS IN JUNE SAW HIKE WARRANTED IF GROWTH PICKED UP
- *FOMC: PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR CONSEQUENCES OF U.K. VOTE
As Bloomberg reports,
The minutes of their June 14-15 meeting show that the Federal Open Market Committee saw it prudent to wait for the result of Britain’s June 23 referendum, which at the time was still too close to call. The decision in favor of Brexit has since sent the pound tumbling and has driven bond yields to record lows.The committee also weighed the health of the U.S. economy and the long-run trajectory for rate increases. A slowdown in hiring was among their chief concerns and another reason for caution. While “participants generally agreed that it was advisable to avoid overreacting to one or two labor-market reports,” the implications of recent employment data were viewed as “uncertain,” the minutes show. Most officials judged that they needed more information on jobs, production and spending.“Most participants judged that, in the absence of significant economic or financial shocks, raising the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate if incoming information confirmed that economic growth had picked up,” job gains were sufficient to achieve full employment and inflation was moving up toward their 2 percent goal in the medium term, the minutes showed.
Confirming what we had noted previously (via WSJ),
The minutes can prove to be dated, even though they are now released 3 weeks after the latest gatherings. That will be especially so given what happened a week after the June meeting: Brexit. While uncertainty about how that vote would pan out helped keep central bankers on the rate-hike sidelines (though the jobs report 2 weeks earlier did most of that work for them), don't expect much insight beyond what ifs. And with Fed-fund futures putting 2016 on ice regarding a rate hike, the minutes likely won't change minds on that.
The Minutes showed the Fed's key concerns, namely about the economy:
While weakness in the drilling and mining sector was attributable to the earlier declines in oil prices, participants identified a variety of potential causes of the broader weakness in investment spending, including a slowdown in corporate profits, concern about prospects for economic growth, heightened uncertainty regarding the future course of domestic regulatory and fiscal policies, and a persistent reluctance on the part of firms to undertake new projects in the wake of the financial crisis. Some participants mentioned that the sluggishness in business investment could portend a broader economic slowdown. A couple of participants also noted that elevated inventory levels could be a drag on economic growth in the near term. However, participants also cited factors that could lead to a pickup in business spending, including the recent turnaround in energy prices and the greater optimism on the part of firms indicated by surveys of businesses and anecdotal reports in some Districts.
The May jobs report:
The employment report for May showed considerably weaker growth in payrolls than had been expected, and gains in previous months were revised down. Although the unemployment rate fell in May, a drop in labor force participation accounted for the decline.
More on the May jobs report:
Almost all participants judged that the surprisingly weak May employment report increased their uncertainty about the outlook for the labor market. Even so, many remarked that they were reluctant to change their outlook materially based on one economic data release. Participants generally expected to see a resumption of monthly gains in payroll employment that would be sufficient to promote continued strengthening of the labor market. However, some noted that with labor market conditions at or near those consistent with maximum employment, it would be reasonable to anticipate that gains in payroll employment would soon moderate from the pace seen over the past few years.
... and the interpretation :
... many participants thought that the underlying pace had slowed some from that of previous months. Some noted that other indicators did not corroborate a material weakening of labor market conditions. These indicators included a number of regional surveys of labor market conditions, relatively low levels of initial claims for unemployment insurance, surveys of business hiring plans, and positive views of labor market conditions in recent consumer surveys. In addition, a few participants commented that the movements in labor force participation in recent months were, on balance, consistent with its secular downtrend. In contrast, some noted that the lower rate of payroll gains could instead be indicative of a broader slowdown in growth of economic activity that was also evidenced by other downbeat labor market indicators, such as a decline in the diffusion indexes of industry payrolls, an increase in the number of workers reporting that they were working part time for economic reasons, or the recent sharp drop in labor force participation. Finally, a few participants suggested that the weak employment growth may instead reflect supply constraints associated with a general tightening of labor market conditions. These participants saw the rising trend in wages, business reports of reduced worker availability, and high rate of job openings as supporting this interpretation.Others thought it unlikely that such constraints would have become evident so abruptly.
Lack of Inflation:
Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Core PCE price inflation registered an increase of 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending in April, while recent readings on retail energy prices moved up notably. Most participants expected to see continued progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. They viewed the firming in some measures of core inflation, the evidence that wage growth was picking up, the ongoing tightening of resource utilization, the recent firming in oil prices, and the stabilization of the foreign exchange value of the dollar this year as factors likely to boost inflation over time. However, other participants were less confident that inflation would return to its target level over the medium term. They thought that progress could be very slow, particularly in light of the likelihood that tighter resource utilization may impart only modest upward pressure on prices. They also saw important downside risks, including persistent disinflationary pressures from very low inflation and weak economic growth abroad as well as the softening in some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations and market-based measures of inflation compensation.
And of course, Brexit:
Most participants noted that the upcoming British referendum on membership in the European Union could generate financial market turbulence that could adversely affect domestic economic performance. Some also noted that continued uncertainty regarding the outlook for China’s foreign exchange policy and the relatively high levels of debt in China and some other EMEs represented appreciable risks to global financial stability and economic performance.
Under what conditions would the Fed raise:
Participants weighed a number of considerations in assessing the conditions under which it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds rate. Most participants indicated that they made only small changes to their forecasts for achieving and maintaining the Committee’s objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation over the medium term. Several noted that the fundamentals underlying their forecasts remained solid, with several mentioning, in particular, that financial conditions were accommodative and household balance sheets had improved. In evaluating recent economic information, participants generally agreed that it was advisable to avoid overreacting to one or two labor market reports; however, the implications of the recent data on labor market conditions for the economic outlook were uncertain. Most judged that they would need to accumulate additional information on the labor market, production, and spending to help clarify how the economy was evolving in order to evaluate whether the stance of monetary policy should be adjusted. In addition, participants generally thought that it would be prudent to wait for the outcome of the upcoming referendum in the United Kingdom on membership in the European Union in order to assess the consequences of the vote for global financial market conditions and the U.S. economic outlook.* * *However, some other participants were uncertain whether economic conditions would soon warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. Several of them noted downside risks to the outlook for growth in economic activity and for further improvement in labor market conditions, including the possibility that the sharp slowdown in employment gains and the continued weakness in business fixed investment signaled a downshift in economic growth, as well as the potential for global economic or financial shocks. Moreover, several of them worried about the declines in measures of inflation compensation and in some surveybased measures of inflation expectations and suggested that monetary policy may need to remain accommodative for some time in order to move inflation closer to 2 percent on a sustained basis. A few pointed out that with inflation likely to remain low for some time and to rise only gradually, maintaining an accommodative stance of policy could extend the strengthening of the labor market. In addition, several participants observed that because short-term interest rates were still near zero, monetary policy could, if necessary, respond more effectively to surprisingly strong inflationary pressures in the future than to a weakening in the labor market and falling inflation.
But the one word that best summarizes the report is "uncertainty", used well over 30 times througout the text.
Since June's FOMC Statement...
Quelle: stockcharts.com
Freitag, 24. Juni 2016
Nach dem BrExit: Globale Bestände der Gold-Investments springen um 3,4 Mrd. USD auf höchsten Stand seit 2013
Die Anleger weltweit kehren im großen Stil in den Goldmarkt zurück. Hier sehen Sie die Entwicklung der globalen Bestände der Gold-Investments..
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Montag, 30. Mai 2016
China, Devisenmarkt: Abwertungen gehen weiter, Yuan fällt zum US-Dollar auf 5-Jahrestief
Der Blick auf den informativen, inversen Langfrist-Chart von USD/CNY:
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Mittwoch, 18. Mai 2016
Kupferpreis fällt auf 3-Monatstief
Der Kupferpreis kommt nicht in die Gänge und steht erneut vor einer bedrohlichen Kursmarke..
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Sonntag, 15. Mai 2016
Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: Der Wochenrückblick von Haywood
Hier finden Sie den informativen Wochenrückblick von Haywood vor.
The Weekly Dig
Haywood Mining Team
U.S. Retail Sales Boost Dollar Sending Base Metals Prices Lower
§ Better-then-expected retail sales data from the U.S. together with increased consumer confidence heightened the prospects of an interest rate hike later this year, thus sending the dollar up for the second straight week; the U.S. dollar hit a two-week high against a basket of currencies, resulting in the greenback’s best fortnightly performance since February. The strengthening dollar has weighed heavily on base metal prices, eroding most of the gains from late March which saw copper in particular peak at $2.32 per pound during intra-day trading on March 18, although prices still remain above the $1.94 per pound low the red metal hit in late January. Base metals have also been affected by rampant speculation in Chinese commodity markets, which sent the price of iron ore with 62% Fe content delivered to China north of $70 per tonne last month despite fundamentals suggesting continued oversupply; iron ore delivered to Quingdao fell 0.9% to $54.54 per tonne on Friday, while copper (↓4.2%), nickel (↓5%), lead (↓2.7%) and zinc (↓0.2%) each finished at $2.07, $3.90, $0.77 and $0.85 per pound respectively. The appreciating U.S. dollar also saw precious metals down during the week, with gold in particular hitting a low of $1,263 per ounce during the week before recovering to finish at $1,275; silver (↓2.2%), platinum (↓2.9%) and palladium (↓2.8%) all ended the week at $17.09, $1,050 and $591 per ounce respectively. WTI crude pierced the $46 per barrel level following lower production level exacerbated by the wildfires in Alberta this week, finishing at $46.13. Finally, the UxC Weekly Spot Price of uranium pierced the $28 per pound level, finishing at $28.06 per pound.
This report may be distributed in the following states: nil. Otherwise, this report may only be distributed into those states with an institutional buyer state securities registration exemption.
Dienstag, 19. April 2016
Historische Entwicklung: China startet Gold-Benchmark mit Yuan-Dominierung
Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht von Zerohedge über das historische Ereignis:
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2016 09:35 -0400
China Launches Yuan Gold Fix To "Exert More Control Over Price Of Gold"
Overnight a historic event took place when China, the world's top gold consumer, launched a yuan-denominated gold benchmark as had been previewed here previously, in what Reuters dubbed "an ambitious step to exert more control over the pricing of the metal and boost its influence in the global bullion market." Considering the now officially-confirmed rigging of the gold and silver fix courtesy of last week's Deutsche Bank settlement, this is hardly bad news and may finally lead to some rigging cartel and central bank-free price discovery. Or it may not, because China would enjoy nothing more than continuing to accumulate gold at lower prices.
The first Chinese benchmark price, derived from a 1 kg-contract traded by 18 participants on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), was set at 256.92 yuan ($39.69) per gram on Tuesday, equivalent to $1,234.50/ounce.
China's gold benchmark is the culmination of efforts by China over the last few years to reform its domestic gold market in a bid to have a bigger say in the bullion industry, long dominated by London where the global spot benchmark price is currently set. As is well known, as the world's top producer, importer and consumer of gold, China has balked at having to depend on a dollar price in international transactions, and believes its market weight should entitle it to set the price of gold.
Quelle: angelpub.com
Samstag, 16. April 2016
China, Geldpolitik: Abwertung des Yuans setzt sich fort
Das Yuan-Basket fällt letzte Woche auf ein neues Jahrestief:
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Sonntag, 27. März 2016
Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: The Dig - Wochen-Rückblick vom Haywood Mining Team
Der lesenswerte Wochenrückblick von Haywood:
Industry Report
March 24, 2016
The Weekly Dig
Haywood Mining Team
Gold Price Fails to Find Support after Brief Surge following Brussels Attacks
§ The terror attacks in Brussels dominated this week’s headlines, after simultaneous bombings were reported at Brussels airport and at the City’s Metro Station, resulting in at least 32 people dead and over 200 injured. The tragedy amplified tensions in the region, as Europe still reeled from similar attacks in Paris in November last year. As expected, global markets fell, while safe-haven assets including government bonds and gold rose, with the latter hitting $1,259 per ounce during intra-day trading on Tuesday; markets settled quickly, however, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down only 41.30 points, while the S&P 500 was largely unchanged at close. Following these brief market gyrations, metal prices across the board declined significantly; precious metals, and gold in particular, fell on the back of a strengthening U.S. dollar, finishing the week at $1,219 per ounce (↓3.7%) on Thursday heading into the Easter holiday period. The strengthening U.S. dollar has been attributed to the view that the Federal Reserve’s Open Market statement last week may have been too “dovish”. In response, silver (↓4.7%), platinum (↓4%) and palladium (↓3.3%) fell, finishing at $15.19, $947 and $574 per ounce respectively, while base metals fared no better, with copper (↓2.4%), nickel (↓2.85%), lead (↓3.5%) and zinc (↓2.5%) each finishing at $2.26, $3.91, $0.79 and $0.81 per pound respectively. One of the worst performers for the week was oil, with U.S. supply data indicating higher-than-expected stockpiles and stubbornly high production; WTI crude prices tumbled 5.4% to finish at $39.53 per barrel. Finally, UxC Broker Average (BAP) Price of uranium underwent a relatively flat week, finishing slightly lower (↓1%) at $29.44 per pound.
This report may be distributed in the following states: nil. Otherwise, this report may only be distributed into those states with an institutional buyer state securities registration exemption.
Mittwoch, 23. März 2016
Kanadischer Dollar: Rohstoff-Baisse belastet
Ein informativer Blick auf den langfristigen Chart des Währungspaars CAD/USD:
Quelle: mineweb.com
Mittwoch, 16. März 2016
Spannung vor dem nächsten FED-Treffen
Hierzu ein informativer Bericht von Zerohedge:
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2016 12:55 -0400
Trading The FOMC
With the market already pricing in dramatically fewer rate-hikes that the "cheerleading" Fed,Deutsche Bank expects the USD to respond favorably to the FOMC’s signals on Wednesday,contrary to the pattern seen after the last four FOMC meetings with press conferences.
The waning influence of the Fed’s projections is showing up in derivatives markets. After the December revision to the projected path of interest rates, traders responded much less than they did earlier in the year in the market for derivatives known as overnight-indexed swaps.
But, as Deutsche's Alan Ruskin notes, the likely comment on the balance of risks will be one indication that all upcoming FOMC meetings are "live." Among the conundrums facing the Fed, are how much weight to place in the predictive powers of the past (USD led) tightening in financial conditions; and the signal from a flatter yield curve...
Table 1 shows how FX and bond markets have typically registered much larger (absolute) one day price changes on days when FOMC’s end with a press conference than when they don’t. These FOMC press conference daily moves also vastly exceed the sustained reaction on payroll days. The reasons are not hard to find – FOMC days with press conferences, have the Fed Chair Q&A, as well as the economic projections and the notorious dot plot to respond to.
On these main elements, we expect the March meeting to break as follows:
i) The dot plot. DB’s econ team expects the median dots to come down by 25bps for all of 2016, 2017, 2018 and the longer-run. Prima facie this may seem dovish but the dots will have to come down by more than this, especially the 2016 dot, to be seen as genuinely bullish, because the market is pricing in so much less than the Fed projects. The market has less tightening priced in for the end of 2018 than the Dec FOMC median dot for the end of 2016!
Abonnieren
Posts (Atom)