Dienstag, 16. Februar 2016

Goldman Sachs: Erneute Verkaufsempfehlung für Gold

Goldman Sachs verfestigt die bärische Haltung zum gelben Metall..

Goldman Channels FDR's `Nothing to Fear' With Sell Gold Call

February 15, 2016 — 7:10 PM PST Updated on February 15, 2016 — 9:14 PM PST

·         New fears, like past fears, are not justified, Goldman says
·         Bullion is seen dropping to $1,000 in 12 months, bank saysShare on Facebook

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says it’s time to bet against gold as bullion’s rally to the highest level in a year isn’t justified, backing the bearish call with a comment from a former U.S. leader in a report that was issued, appropriately enough, on Presidents’ Day. Prices tumbled.

Gold will slump back to $1,100 an ounce in three months and $1,000 an ounce in 12 months, analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Max Layton wrote in the report that was dated Feb. 15 and received on Tuesday. It was headlined with a remark from former President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
There’s “nothing to fear but fear itself,” the analysts entitled the seven-page note, channeling comments from Roosevelt’s 1933 inauguration when the U.S. economy was being ravaged by the Great Depression. “It’s time to sell the fear barometer,” the bank said, and recommended shorting gold.

Gold jumped to highest since February 2015 last week as sinking equity markets, weaker oil prices, and diminished bets for higher U.S. borrowing costs spurred haven demand. Prices were further boosted by the spread of negative interest rates and concerns about a crisis in Europe’s banks. Goldman said it still expected rates to rise, putting the odds of U.S. recession at just 15 to 20 percent, and rejected the notion that a re-run of the crisis was likely.

‘Not Justified’

“We believe that these new fears, like past fears, are not justified,” the analysts wrote, saying that financial markets had overreacted. “Systemic risks stemming from the collapse in oil and commodity prices are extremely small.”

Gold for immediate delivery sank as much as 1.5 percent to $1,191.02 an ounce and traded at $1,193.52 at 1:09 p.m. in Singapore. It’s down from $1,263.48 on Feb. 11, the highest price since February 2015. Goldman’s targets for bullion are the same as those given by the bank in a note last week, when it said that U.S. rates will still rise..

Quelle: goldmansachs.com


The recent gold surge is overdone - Goldman

In a note to clients late yesterday titled “Nothing to fear but fear itself,” Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie says that the fear guiding global financial markets right now “ignore the facts that systemic risks from oil, China and negative rates are very unlikely.”
Currie says that the negative macro impacts from low oil prices have likely already played out and are not systemic; the spillover from the Chinese economy slowing down is limited; and that the U.S. economy is far from a recession.
“Financial markets have overreacted to the point that current inflation breakevens would require oil prices to keep declining for the next 7 years.”
“We believe that the sharp rise in gold prices this past week was mostly due to concerns over systemic risks, particularly in the banking sector, given the sharp correlation of gold prices with bank stocks and other measures of systemic credit risks. While this is a continuation of a trend established since the beginning of the year that started with systemic concerns over oil and China, we believe that these new fears like the past fears are not justified.”
Currie says we’re likely heading for a bounce once the market realizes that European banks, which are currently at the center of concerns over negative interest rates, are still able to fund themselves and that money markets are open with no evidence of strain in either euro or dollar funding..

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