Dienstag, 21. Juli 2015

Gold, China: Analyse der Offiziellen Reserven aus dem PBOC Statement

Aktuelles "Must Read" vom geschätzten Analysten Koos Jansen von Bullionstar.com:

Analyzing PBOC Official Gold Reserves Increment

As always, please make sure you’ve read The Mechanics Of The Chinese Domestic Gold Market before continuing.

Finally last Friday the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) updated its official gold reserves, from 1,054 tonnes, a figure reported since 2009, to 1,658 tonnes. Most gold analysts expected a number substantially higher than what was just disclosed. In this post we’ll analyze the 1,658 tonnes figure.

Before diving into the analysis, I like to share that I think it’s possible the PBOC hasn’t been completely honest by stating their gold reserves have grown by only 604 tonnes since 2009. I think in reality they have a little more than 1,658 tonnes, but let’s discuss that later on. In my analysis, I always try to start with official data and work my way from there, instead of start with speculative data and work backwards. It’s very easy in the gold space to rebut all official data, mainly because there is so much speculation. Therefor, I would like to start with the figure just disclosed, then I’ll try to answer, why 1,658 tonnes?

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