Payrolls Rise 156K, Missing Expectations, Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.0%
With Wall Street all bulled up on the economy, expecting a print of 175K while the whipser number was decidedly higher, and closer to 200K thanks to Goldman's optimism, moments ago the BLS reported that in September the US created only 156K jobs, missing expectations, and down from the upward revised 167K in August, leaving the question of whether the Fed will hike imminently, unanswered.
However, offsetting the September miss, last month's disappointing print of 151K was revised to 167K. At the same time, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down from +275,000 to +252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 7,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 192,000 per month.
The household survey employment number of 151.968MM was 354K bigger than last month, and pushed the annual increase higher by 2.0%, the biggest since March 2016..
Gold Leads, Bonds Bleed As Jobs Miss Sends Rate-Hike Odds Tumbling
The highest unemployment rate since April sent rate hike odds for November tumbling from almost 30 to around 15%. The kneejerk in stocks faded, bond yields surged, gold is leading the post-payrolls run...
Nov rate hike odds are tumbling but Dec is marginally higher..
Sending the USD lower...
Part-Time Jobs Soar By 430,000 As Multiple Jobholders Surge To August 2008 Levels
While today's headline jobs print was somewhat disappointing, with the Establishment Survey missing the expected print of 175K, and growing by 156K, it was offset by a far higher 354K jump in the household survey which offset last month's weakness. But while the quantitative headline aspect is open to interpretation, the qualitative component of the September jobs print was downright ugly for two key reasons.
First, looking at the composition of jobs, full-time jobs declined by 5,000 to 142,296K while part-time jobs soared by 430,000...
... the biggest monthly jump since February..
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