Inflations-/Deflations-Debatte: Jüngster Beitrag von Incrementum

Lesenswertes Doku:

Monetary Tectonics Inflation vs Deflation Chartbook by Incrementum

Link: http://www.scribd.com/doc/197725461/Monetary-Tectonics-Inflation-vs-Deflation-Chartbook-by-Incrementum

Quelle: incrementumadvisors.com 

Quelle: incrementumadvisors.com

Gold: Nachfrage und Verbrauch in Indien ziehen kräftig an

Indien ist aufgrund des berühmten Akshaya Tritiya Festes wieder komplett im Schmuck- und Goldfieber. Wie in China zieht auch in die Nachfrage beim weltgrößten Goldkonsumenten in den letzten Wochen erheblich an.

Gold retail sales in India swell 15%

Gold sales are expected to have crossed 25 tonne in volume terms in India on Akshaya Tritiya this year, as compared to 17 tonne last year..

Link: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=190068&sn=Detail

Huge India gold spree takes shine off slowing inflation

 (Reuters) - India's gold and silver imports shot up 138 percent on year in April as customers took advantage of lower prices, increasing pressure on the current account balance and limiting the space for monetary easing even though inflation slowed in the month..

Link: http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/13/india-economy-trade-idINDEE94C04D20130513

Gold: Physischer Kaufrausch in China hält an

Chinesische Investoren sorgen dafür, dass die physische Goldnachfrage aus dem Reich der Mitte die eindrucksvolle Rekordjagd fortsetzt. Im März hatten die chinesischen Goldimporte auf Monatsbasis erst ein neues Rekordhoch markiert. Im April erwarten Händler und Experten sogar nochmal eine signifikante Steigerung der Goldeinfuhren, nachdem der Kaufrausch landesweit ungebrochen anhält. Während die Derivateseite im Goldmarkt schwächelt, zeigt der physische Markt demonstrative Stärke. So vergrößert sich die Schere zwischen dem Gold-Papiermarkt und dem physischen Markt weiter.

".. "April imports will be stronger than March," Lee Cheong Gold Dealers chief dealer Ronald Leung said in Hong Kong. "The world was buying gold and China was no different."

The drop in gold prices has prompted a gold rush in China, with Chinese shoppers flocking to retailers to buy jewellery and gold bars.

A spokesman for Hong Kong jewellery chain Chow Tai Fook, the world’s largest jewellery retailer by market value, said traffic at its China stores jumped by 50% during the May Day holidays.

The surge in Chinese travellers during the three-day May Day holiday also drove gold sales in Hong Kong to rise by an estimated 50%, with total gold sales from April 29-May 2 reaching 40 tons, local media quoted Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange president Haywood Cheung as saying.

The jump in Chinese physical demand also prompted some banks to ship in more supplies from London and Swiss vaults, traders said

With China’s economy still on shaky ground, investors could increasingly be turning to gold as a so-called safe-haven investment.

Gold exports to China from Hong Kong hit a record high of 557.478 tons last year.."

Link: http://www.bdlive.co.za/world/asia/2013/05/08/gold-hungry-china-set-for-further-surge-in-imports

Gold: Crash in den westlichen ETFs, physischer Kaufrausch in Fernost

Während das wichtigste Gold-ETF, SPDR Gold Trust / GLD, weitere Abflüsse am Montag vermeldet, steigt die physische Nachfrage in Fernost weiter bedeutend an. In China sprechen Marktpartizipanten bereits schon vom größten Goldrausch der letzten 50 Jahre.

"Gold Rush" in China "Biggest in Half a Century" But ETFs Still Liquidating 

WHOLESALE gold bullion prices rallied back above $1420 an ounce Tuesday morning in London, having earlier dipped back towards where they started the week following yesterday's 2% jump amid what one Hong Kong dealer suggested was the biggest rush to buy gold in half a century..

..

The world's largest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD) continued to see net outflows Monday, with his holdings ending the day down more than 18 tonnes at 1104.7 tonnes.

Since the start of 2013, the volume of gold held to back GLD shares has dropped nearly 20%.

In China by contrast, "physical gold dealers and jewelry makers have had to replenish their inventory following robust sales," according to Song Heping, assistant manager at Xiamen City Commercial Bank.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the equivalent of 40.6 tonnes was traded in the benchmark 'four nines' spot contract (for gold of 99.99% purity) Tuesday, down a little from yesterday's record of 43.6 tonnes. By comparison, the previous record, set on February 18 this year immediately after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, was 22 tonnes.

"Physical markets have responded to the much cheaper gold price levels," says UBS precious metals analyst Joni Teves.

"Our physical flows to Asia have been particularly elevated this week."

"In terms of volume, I haven't seen this gold rush for over 20 years," says Haywood Cheung, president of the Hong Kong Gold & Silver Exchange Society, quoted by the Financial Times.

"Older members who have been in the business for 50 years haven't seen such a thing."

Dealers in Hong Kong Tuesday reported gold bars selling at premiums over the spot price not seen for eighteen months, citing supply constraints for physical bullion..

Link: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ben-traynor/gold-rush-in-china-biggest-in-half-a-century

Disconnect zwischen physischem Goldmarkt und ETF-Markt: Update

Dazu ein aktueller Gastbeitrag auf Zerohedge:

Guest Post: Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/23/2013 21:29 -0400 - Submitted by Bud Conrad of Casey Research

How can we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week?

Here are some of the factors:

• George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF by 55% in the fourth quarter of 2012.
• He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about 12.2% at present.
• On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that some members were discussing slowing the Fed $85 billion per month buying of Treasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thought before, the "printing" may not cause as much dollar debasement.
• On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered its target price. It even recommended getting out of gold.
• COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year (much more on this technical point below).
• The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculators and trend followers.
• Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million euros' worth of its gold to cover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was a fear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable gold holdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied the sale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has already moved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell, the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers, rather than flood the physical markets.

My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough by themselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-23/guest-post-physical-gold-vs-paper-gold-ultimate-disconnect

Quelle: zerohedge.com