Schweiz: Deflation seit 18 Monaten

Das Inflationsniveau in der Schweiz befindet sich jetzt bereits seit über 1,5 Jahren unter der Nulllinie:

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Der Aufstieg der Deflation

Vor allem in der Westlichen Welt ist der deflationäre Trend seit einigen Jahren auf dem Vormarsch..

Quelle: reuters.com

China, Geldpolitik: Abwertung des Yuans setzt sich fort

Das Yuan-Basket fällt letzte Woche auf ein neues Jahrestief:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Europa: Deflation bleibt den 2. Monat in Folge bestehen

Die Inflationsraten in der Eurozone bleiben im Keller..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Japan verkauft 10-jährige Anleihe zum ersten Mal mit negativer Rendite

From ZIRP to NIRP..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Neues Interview mit Ronald Stöferle über Stagflation, Geldpolitik, Gold und Silber

Hörenswertes Interview:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2016: Interview mit Frank Holmes

Jochen Staiger von der SRC hat auf der VRIC 2016 ein sehenswertes Interview mit Branchenexperte Frank Holmes aufgenommen:

Frank Holmes on the Importance of PMI Index & Performance of Gold Stocks in other Currencies

Rohstoffe: Deflationscrash verfestigt sich, China setzt Angebotsflut fort

Die chinesischen Rohstoff-Exporte befinden sich seit geraumer Zeit in einem steilen Aufwärtstrend und tragen signifikant zum Überangebot am globalen Rohstoffmarkt bei. Da zeitgleich die Nachfrage nach vielen Basisrohstoffen schwächelt, erhöht sich der Druck auf die Rohstoffpreise quasi automatisch..

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Platin vs. Gold, Volkswagen-Skandal hinterlässt Spuren: Spread erreicht neues Mehrjahreshoch, Platin:Gold Ratio fällt auf 20-Jahrestief

Der Platinpreis fällt zum Goldpreis auf einen historischen Tiefstand.

Der VW-Skandal (das Edelmetall wird vor allem in Diesel-Katalysatoren verbaut), hohe Lagerbestände und der scharfe Deflationscrash im Rohstoff-Sektor sind die Hauptgründe für den Ausverkauf. Weiter ist der enge und kleine Platin-Markt wie immer sehr anfällig für Preismanipulationen..

Hier der Blick auf den sehenswerten Spread zwischen Platin und Gold, der nun auf einem historischen Tief notiert.

Quelle: http://www.denvergold.org/precious-metal-prices-charts/platinum-gold-spread/

Parallel fällt das Platin-Gold Ratio logischerweise auf einen historischen Tiefstand:

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Deflationscrash setzt sich fort: Bloomberg Commodity Index bricht auf neues 16-Jahrestief ein

Rohstoffpreise fallen auf den tiefsten Stand seit 1999 und so haben sich alle Preisgewinne vom ehemaligen "Super-Zyklus" jetzt komplett aufgelöst. Der Blick auf zwei vielsagende Charts:

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Quelle: bloomberg.com

China-Krise und Deflationsschock belasten: Kupfer bricht auf neues 6-Jahrestief ein

Dr. Copper bleibt massiv unter Druck, das Chartbild sieht desaströs aus. Der Kupferpreis liegt nach einer weiteren, schweren Verlustwoche nur noch wenige Prozent über der markanten Marke von 2 USD/Pfund entfernt:

Quelle: stockcharts.com

China, Wirtschaft: Importe und Exporte fallen weiter

Nach den neusten Zahlen aus China, folgt der Blick auf zwei spannende Charts:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Nyrstar: Europas größter Zinkproduzent vor Default

Das nächste Opfer im historischen Bärenmarkt in der Rohstoffbranche - credit to Zerohedge:

CEO Of Europe's Largest Zinc Producer Hints At Default: Bonds Hit Record Lows, Stock Plunges Most Ever

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2015 12:19 -0400

• Australia
 
• Belgium
 
• Bond
 
• CDS
 
• China
 
• default
 
• Glencore
 
• None
 
• SWIFT
 
• Zurich

It had been a while since we had any major news involving the ongoing devastation in the global mining sector courtesy of China, where as we previously reported more than half of the local commodity companies can't cover their interest expense and are thus caught in a deflationary race to the bottom even as the government has no choice but to bail them all out.

Indeed, complacency seemed ready to set back in, with Glencore stock recently rising as high as its recent equity offering price of 125p. And then today we noticed that not only is Glencore's CDS back above 700 bps, the widest it has been in three weeks, but that another mining company has fallen into the market's crosshairs, this time Belgium-based (with Zurich HQ) Nyrstar NV, Europe's largest refined-zinc producer, whose stock crashed the most since its initial public offering in 2007, while it bonds tumbled to a yield of 19%, suggesting a default may be imminent..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-22/ceo-europes-largest-zinc-producer-hints-default-bonds-hit-record-lows-stock-plunges-

Quelle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-22/ceo-europes-largest-zinc-producer-hints-default-bonds-hit-record-lows-stock-plunges-

Sprott's Thoughts - Eric Sprott: "The Powers That Be Don't Want To Admit There's A Problem"

Hörenswertes Interview.

Sprott's Thoughts

Wednesday, September 9, 2015 - Tekoa Da Silva

Eric Sprott: "The Powers That Be Don't Want To Admit There's A Problem"

Link/Quelle: http://sprottglobal.com/thoughts/articles/eric-sprott-the-powers-that-be-do-not-want-to-admit-there-is-a-problem/

Bärenmarkt bei den Rohstoffen hält an: Wichtiger Metall-Index fällt auf neue Mehrjahres-Tiefstände

Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht von Zerohedge:

Economically Key Industrial Metals Complex Is Breaking Down

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/23/2015 08:19 -0400

• Copper
 
• CRB
 
• Crude
 
• Crude Oil
 
• ETC
 
• Fibonacci

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

On March 5, we noted that the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index was “Hanging On The Precipice” of a major long-term support level. At the time, the global deflationary spiral was reaching its nadir as all matters of commodities and pricing metrics were reaching multi-year lows. Not coincidentally, the U.S. Dollar was soaring at the time to new 12-year highs. The concern with the Industrial Metals space threatening to break down was the inherent message vis-a-vis the global economic outlook. As we stated in the March post:

It makes sense that pricing of industrial metals (like aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, etc.) would make for a decent barometer of economic strength. These metals go into the manufacturing of a myriad of products. Thus, their pricing, i.e., a sign of the level of demand for these metals, is a tip off to the level of global economic demand present.

Quelle: zerohedge.com

The failure of the Industrial Metals complex to hold key support would appear, to us, to bode ill for the global economic outlook. The key support level threatening to give way was the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (near 307) of the rally from 2009 to 2011 to which the Index had recently dropped. That level, at the time, had held for several days, confirming its relevance, and perhaps significance, as a support level.

We had seen the price of crude oil as well as the comprehensive CRB commodity Index break their own such 61.8% Fibonacci levels en route to major collapses. However, we also saw copper hold its similar level so it appeared that the Industrial Metals could go either way. Considering the lack of any bounce at all off of the 61.8% level, the chart had the looks of a continuation pattern. Thus, our suspicions were that the index would eventually break down. Well, our suspicions were correct…for 1 day. On March 18, the Index appeared to be breaking down, only to reverse itself the following day and commence a furious rally over the subsequent 6 weeks. After jumping some 13%, the Industrial Metals Index tested its previous break-down level from December near 345 – and failed.

Over the past 6 weeks, the Industrial Metals Index has gotten pummeled, losing its entire post-”false breakdown” gains. It has returned to the key 61.8% support level around 307 and, this time, it is threatening to slice through it.

The fact that the Index has dropped immediately to new 6-year lows is a concern. One would expect prices to at least be temporarily slowed by the prior lows. The failure to do that suggests a dearth of demand at this formerly key level. That said, prices could certainly be setting up another false breakdown. If the index is able to recapture that 307 line in short-order, that possibility cannot be overlooked. That could further lead to the potential of this down move being a successful test of the March lows. Thus, all of this action near the 61.8% line could just be a complex bottoming process. Furthermore, and we are looking well ahead here, if such a successful test leads to a rally above the May highs, it could signify a potentially major long-term low in the Industrial Metals complex.

However, that is merely the “could be”. We prefer to deal with the “what is”. And what is happening is that the Industrial Metals Index is breaking down below the key 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the 2009-2011 rally. Further breakdown in prices could, again, be a sign of global economic weakness. And perhaps arguing for a further breakdown in prices is the recent action in the U.S. Dollar.

Interestingly, in March, when the Industrial Metals Index was last breaking down, it was doing so in the face of a soaring dollar. That is not the case now. In fact, since the Index peaked in early May, the U.S. Dollar is actually lower by about 1.5%. Therefore, we can’t merely look at this as an anti-dollar move. It has come of its own accord, without the headwinds of a U.S. Dollar rally. If the Dollar were to rally, it’s possible we could see a significant acceleration of this plunge in the Industrial Metals.

For now, we’ll just focus on that 307 level. Above it, the Index has a chance to rally. Below it, it could be bombs away. Right now, we are below it. Therefore, we will continue to look for more downside in the Industrial Metals. And that downside could mean more than just losses in this space – it could be a warning sign for global economic demand.

Quelle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-23/economically-key-industrial-metals-complex-breaking-down

Big Picture: Geldumlaufgeschwindigkeit weiter rückläufig

Brisante Entwicklung:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht von Martin Armstrong - featured by Zerohedge:

Martin Armstrong Warns Of The Coming Crash Of All Crashes

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2015 14:10 -0400

• Capital Formation
 
• Central Banks
 
• Federal Reserve
 
• Glass Steagall
 
• Martin Armstrong
 
• Nationalization
 
• recovery
 
• Unemployment

inShare42

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics,

Why are governments rushing to eliminate cash?

During previous recoveries following the recessionary declines, the central banks were able to build up their credibility and ammunition so to speak by raising interest rates during the recovery. This time, ever since we began moving toward Transactional Banking with the repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999, banks have looked at profits rather than their role within the economic landscape.

They shifted to structuring products and no longer was there any relationship with the client. This reduced capital formation for it has been followed by rising unemployment among the youth and/or their inability to find jobs within their fields of study. The VELOCITY of money peaked with our Economic Confidence Model 1998.55 turning point from which we warned of the pending crash in Russia...

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/martin-armstrong-warns-coming-crash-all-crashes

USA: Inflations- und Deflations-Raten in der Historie (ab 1670)

Informativer Langfrist-Chart:

Quelle: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/

Quote:

Crisis Chronicles: The Panic Of 1819 - America’s First Great Economic Crisis

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/05/2014 18:55 -0500

• Federal Reserve
 
• France
 
• Great Depression
 
• headlines
 
• Mexico
 
• Monetary Base
 
• Monetary Policy
 
• Money Supply
 
• Ohio
 
• Paul Volcker
 
• Quantitative Easing
 
• Real estate
• Recession
 
• recovery
 
• Unemployment

Authored by James Narron, David Skeie, and Don Morgan; via The NY Fed's Liberty Street Economics blog,

As we noted in our last post on the British crisis of 1816, while Britain emerged from nearly a quarter century of war with France ready to supply the world with manufactured goods, it needed cotton to supply the mills, and all of Europe needed wheat to supplement a series of poor harvests. The United States met that demand for cotton and wheat by expanding agricultural production, facilitated by the loose credit policies of a growing number of lightly regulated state banks. Meanwhile, the Treasury needed revenue to pay off debts from the Louisiana Purchase and the War of 1812, so the government turned to selling land acquired in the Louisiana Purchase. But the increased agricultural demand and easy credit policies led to a speculative real estate boom, particularly in Alabama. So when the Treasury started to pay off its debts, the specie drain caused a painful but necessary contraction and the boom went bust. In this edition of Crisis Chronicles, we describe America’s first great economic crisis..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/crisis-chronicles-panic-1819-america’s-first-great-economic-crisis

Trotz Geldflut und Rekord-Schuldenmanie: Geldumlauf-Geschwindigkeit weiter rückläufig

Die prägnanten Langfrist-Charts der amerikanischen Geldumlauf-Geschwindigkeit anhand der Geldmenge 1 und 2 sprechen Bände. Die fallende Umlaufgeschwindigkeit spiegelt das große Misstrauen, sinkende Kreditausgabe und fallende Investitionen in der Finanzindustrie wider, welche weitere Deflationssignale senden:

Quelle: http://research.stlouisfed.org

Quelle: http://research.stlouisfed.org

Eurozone: Inflationsraten brechen weiter ein und markieren neues 5-Jahrestief

To sum it up:

"..In other words, the European economic collapse is bullish because it means more failed monetarist experiments to make rich richer. QE and D.." :)

Heutiges Update @ Zerohedge:

Eurozone Inflation Drops To Fresh 5 Year Low, EURUSD Tumbles

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2014 06:14 -0400

Anyone confused why futures are doing their best to surge in the overnight session, the answer is simple: first it was Japan reporting the latest batch of atrocious economic data, which an hour ago was followed by Europe own abysmal econofreakshow, where Eurostat just reported that in September Eurozone inflation rose a meager 0.3% from a year ago, the lowest annual increase since October 2009.This marks the 12th straight month that Euro inflation has been below 1%, and far below the ECB's goal of 2% inflation..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-30/eurozone-inflation-drops-fresh-5-year-low-eurusd-tumbles

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quote:

Quelle: yahoo.finance.com

Inflations-/Deflations-Debatte: Jüngster Beitrag von Incrementum

Lesenswertes Doku:

Monetary Tectonics Inflation vs Deflation Chartbook by Incrementum

Link: http://www.scribd.com/doc/197725461/Monetary-Tectonics-Inflation-vs-Deflation-Chartbook-by-Incrementum

Quelle: incrementumadvisors.com 

Quelle: incrementumadvisors.com