Rohstoffsektor 2013: Morgan Stanley wirft einen Blick in die Glaskugel

Die US-Bank Morgan Stanley ist neben Goldman Sachs und JP Morgan einer der Hauptspieler bei den Finanzanlagen im Rohstoffbereich. Für das kommende Jahr sieht Morgan die Precious Metals weiter in einem sehr lukrativen Terrain, wobei Gold stärker als Silber gesehen wird. Aufgrund der vielen Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich der Wachstumsraten der globalen Wirtschaft und BRIC-Staaten, werden Basis- und Industriemetalle wie Zink und Nickel in den nächsten 12 Monaten schwächer gesehen, während der Ausblick für Kupfer und Eisenerz wesentlich positiver ist. Die drei wichtigsten Makrotrends, auf die MS die Analysen für 2013 stützt:

"1. Macro uncertainty puts focus on structural stories. Overall, macro challenges and uncertainty should keep demand growth subpar, especially in 1H13, suggesting beta trades will be less effective. Growth is setup to accelerate meaningfully later in 2013, particularly in the DM, but this requires favorable policy measures. Even then, challenges to EM export growth models may weigh on commodities dependent on traditional Asia demand. Thus, we view structural stories as a safer play.

2. Supply has responded to higher prices, but not in equal measure. Higher prices have brought both a supply and demand response, but the elasticity of supply and demand, as well as the length of the cycle, varies significantly across commodities. Thus, significant differences in supply- side fundamentals and end-market use remain important factors for relative performance. Commodities with less elastic supply include gold, copper, oil and agriculture to a lesser degree.

3. End markets and the availability of substitutes help set the threshold for demand rationing. Where supply is constrained, demand must be rationed through higher prices, but similar to the supply story, the elasticity of demand varies by commodity. Demand for necessities such as energy and grains tend to be more resilient to higher prices. Moreover, commodities with limited or high cost substitutes tend to see more resilient demand in the face of higher prices (crude oil, copper, corn/soybeans, etc.), raising the price point for demand destruction.."

Der Ausblick für die verschiedenen Rohstoffsegmente:

Quelle: 2013 Commodities Outlook, December 2012