Silber, Terminmarkt: Short-Positionen des "Smart Money" erreichen neues Allzeithoch

Erneut ergeben sich kuriose Entwicklungen an der COMEX:

Quelle: CME, CoT

Ölpreis-Rally befeuert durch Short-Eindeckungen

Am Öl-Markt kommt es in den letzten Wochen wie erwartet zu einem massiven Short Squeeze:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Rohstoffe: Hedgefonds erhöhen rekordhohe Short-Positionierungen

Noch nie zuvor in der Geschichte waren Hedgefonds so bärisch für Rohstoffe wie zu dieser Zeit..

"..The net-short position across 18 U.S.-traded commodities expanded to 202,534 futures and options as of Jan. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures published three days later. That’s the largest since the government data begins in 2006 and compares with 164,203 contracts a week earlier.."

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Quote:

Hedge Fund Bets Signal There's More Pain Ahead for Commodities

January 17, 2016 — 10:00 PM CETUpdated on January 18, 2016 — 5:15 AM CET

The commodity meltdown that pushed oil to a 12-year low and copper to the cheapest since 2009 isn’t over yet. At least, that’s how hedge funds see it..

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/commodity-collapse-has-more-to-go-as-funds-make-record-bear-bet

Gold: Hedgefonds erhöhen rekordhohe Short-Wetten, Extrem-Positionen am Terminmarkt

Das sogenannte "Managed Money" (hauptsächlich Hedgefonds) hat die rekordhohe Short-Positionierung an der COMEX noch einmal verstärkt. Die Spannung steigt damit weiter an..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quote:

Gold, Terminmarkt: Hedgefonds waren nie bärischer - Kontrasignal?

Wir sehen erneut eine äußerst spannende Konstellation an der Terminbörse COMEX..

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2015/12/gold-terminmarkt-hedgefonds-waren-nie.html

Gold und Öl: Rekordhohe Short-Positionierung der Hedgefonds

Hedgefonds bleiben für Gold und Öl extrem bärisch. Die Short-Quoten notieren auf historischen Hochständen und erhöhen den Preisdruck an den Terminmärkten. Auf der anderen Seite fällt das Sentiment ins Bodenlose. Diese brisanten und spannenden Entwicklungen gilt es aktuell besonders zu beachten. Die massiven Short-Positionen müssen früher oder später aufgelöst werden..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Gold, Terminmarkt: Hedgefonds waren nie bärischer - Kontrasignal?

Wir sehen erneut eine äußerst spannende Konstellation an der Terminbörse COMEX.

Hedgefonds waren in der Historie noch nie zuvor bärischer bei Gold positioniert:

"..At 1.4 million ounces the market is now in its biggest net short position ever, surpassing bearish positions entered into in July and early August. That was the first time hedge funds were net negative since at least 2006, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission first began tracking the data..."

Diese brisante Entwicklung könnte im Hinblick auf die historisch hohen Short-Positionierungen ein starkes Kontrasignal implizieren..

Quelle: mining.com, Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Quote:

Hedge funds have never bet this much on a falling gold price

Frik Els | December 1, 2015

On Tuesday on the Comex market in New York, gold futures with February delivery dates eked out a small gain in brisk post-holiday trade, but remains not far off near five-and-half year lows hit last week..

Link: http://www.mining.com/hedge-funds-have-never-bet-this-much-on-a-falling-gold-price/?utm_source=digest-en-au-151201&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest

US-Aktienmarkt: Total NYSE Short Interest explodiert auf Rekord-Niveau, höchste Level vor Lehman Brothers

Sehr spannende Entwicklung - credit to ZH.

Quelle: NYSE, zerohedge.com

Gold, Terminmarkt: CoT-Daten haben sich erneut massiv verbessert

Die neusten Daten sind da: Commercials (u.a. US-Banken, Producer) haben ihre Short-Positionen weiter reduziert, während die Large Specs (u.a. Managed Money) ihre Long-Positionen Richtung zero schicken bzw. ihre Shorts nochmals ausbauen. Small Specs nun wieder solide short auf den Goldpreis. 

Kurz gesagt: Die CoT-Daten sehen extrem gut aus und schon bald könnten die massiven Gold-Shorter auf die Schlachtbank geführt werden (doch Vorsicht: Natürlich steht noch der potentielle, finale Crash Richtung $1.000 USD/Oz nach wie vor im Raum und die charttechnische Lage ist äußerst heikel). Dazu passt auch gut die neuste Positionierung der Hedgefonds, die Verhältnisse aufzeigt, die es noch nie zuvor gab (ff. Short-Positionierungen auf ATH)..

Chart-Credit to Wellenreiter:

Gold: Das gab es noch nie zuvor - Hedgefonds sind Netto-Short

Credit to Zerohedge:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Edelmetalle, Terminmärkte: Managed Money behält rekordhohe Short-Positionierungen

Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht von GoldMoney, featured by Mining.com:

Precious metals subdues as panic over

GoldMoney | October 24, 2014

For gold and silver it has been a week of two halves: first prices rallied to a peak on Tuesday, then declined to show net losses for the week on Wednesday for silver and Thursday for gold. Broadly these precious metals reflected first weakness then strength in the US dollar. And equities reversed the nervousness of the previous week after a FOMC member suggested QE would be extended, with the S&P 500 closing up 7% on Thursday from its October 15 low.Share on email

So it has been panic over for the moment in the markets and back to business as usual for precious metals. However there are signs of good underlying demand for physical gold, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivering 68.37 tonnes into public hands over the holiday period (two weeks with only five trading days), and a further 51.5 tonnes last week. The chart below shows gold withdrawn from the SGE this year, totalling 1,547 tonnes so far, on course for a 1,900 tonne total this year, only 300 tonnes short from the 2013 total.

There has been a significant pick-up in deliveries in recent months. Indian demand for gold has recovered as well, with the Diwali festival coming up, coupled with attractive prices. Jewellers reported demand being up about a third on last year.

An opinion poll of voters in next month’s referendum on the Swiss National Bank’s gold policy shows 45% to 39% in favour of requiring the SNB to repatriate its gold held abroad, maintain 20% gold on its balance sheet, and sales of gold prohibited. So far, the gold market is ignoring this startling development, but if the SNB is forced by law to comply with these measures one can imagine chaos ensuing as the SNB attempts to comply while the Russian and Asian central banks are also buying; not to mention the likely political pressure on other European central banks to do the same thing. You never know: the SNB might just be the victim of a protest vote.

Russia continues to add to her reserves, taking them to nearly 1,150 tonnes making her the fifth largest official holder. Ignoring all this positive news of physical gold passing from weak into strong hands, the Managed Money category on Comex still has near-record short positions as shown below.

And silver shorts are even more dramatic, clearly in record territory:

The fact that public speculators are so short is strong evidence that the outlook is for higher prices on a massive bear squeeze, and not the fall in prices universally expected by the talking-heads in capital markets.

Next week

Monday. Eurozone: M3 Money Supply. UK: CBI Distributive Trades. US: Pending Home Sales. Japan: Retail Sales.

Tuesday. US: Durable Goods Orders, Durables Ex-Transport, S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Federal FOMC meeting starts. Japan: Industrial Production,

Wednesday. UK: BoE Mortgage Approvals, Net Consumer Credit, Secured Lending, M4 Money Supply. US: FOMC Fed Funds Rate.

Thursday. Eurozone: Business Climate Index, Consumer Sentiment, Economic Sentiment, Industrial Sentiment. US: Core PCE Price Index, GDP, GDP Deflator, Initial Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending. Japan: CPI Core, Real Household Spending, Unemployment.

Friday. Japan: Housing Starts, Construction Orders, BoJ Overnight Rate. Eurozone: Flash HICP, Unemployment. US: Core PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI,

by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney, Head of Research

Link: http://www.mining.com/web/precious-metals-subdues-as-panic-over/

Silber (SLV), Termin-Börse: Rekord Short-Positionen an der COMEX

Erneut sehen wir eine heikle und gleichzeitig explosive Situation der COMEX:

Record Shorting In Silver

Oct. 6, 2014 1:49 PM ET  |  13 comments  |  About: iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

Disclosure: The author is long SLV. (More...)

Summary

• Large speculators held a record number of short contracts on COMEX silver.
• Short interest in certain silver stocks are still low compared to last year's December bottom.
• Gold could drag down silver even more if gold cannot hold its support zone.
• Historically, October is usually a poor month for silver.

By Ivan Y.

The most recent Commitments of Traders report was released on Friday and it showed that the Non-Commercial traders (i.e. large speculators such as hedge funds and managed futures funds) held a record amount of COMEX short positions. 52,104 contracts (or 260.5 million ounces) were held short as of September 30th. This was more than a 5,000 contract increase from the previous week. Prior to this week's record, the previous record was 49,012 contracts, which occurred right around the time when silver bottomed this June. As it turned out, this was not the ultimate bottom, but silver did rally nearly 15% from that point.

Historically, silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) has found a bottom when short interest by the large speculators has peaked. This was true this June and also during the two silver bottoms last year in June and December.

In all my years of following silver, I have discovered that the COT report is one of the most useful tools in detecting market tops and bottoms. The short interest can certainly go higher, which would push silver even lower, but the shorters are really pushing the limits here. The 260.5 million ounces that are held short is more than the 181.9 million ounces of silver inventory in the COMEX vaults. And out of that amount at COMEX, only about one-third of it is eligible for delivery.

Short Interest in Silver Stocks

While short interest on the COMEX would indicate that silver is close to a bottom, short interest in certain silver stocks is still relatively low, which would indicate to me that perhaps there isn't enough pessimism yet in some of these silver stocks to indicate a bottom for silver and the silver stocks. For example, as of September 15th, short interest in Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) was a little over 1.4 million shares. This is significantly lower than the 4-plus million shares that were short last December when silver bottomed. Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) is another good example. Short interest was last reported to be a little over 2.8 million shares, but it was nearly 6 million last December. The same condition also applies to the short interest for Endeavour (NYSE:EXK).

Ideally, a higher short interest in these silver stocks would be a better indicator that silver has bottomed.

Conclusion & Final Thoughts

I would like to see even more short selling at the COMEX and in the silver stocks before I would feel confident that silver has found a bottom in this cycle. Also, gold's precarious position on the charts is another concern. Gold is testing a support zone in the $1180-1200 range right now. Gold double-bottomed in this range last year. If gold's support zone breaks, it could drag silver even lower. It wouldn't shock me at all if gold fell to $1000. I'm not betting on it, but I recognize that it could happen.

Finally, for anyone interested in the seasonality of silver, here is the data of how silver has performed historically during the month of October. Take it for whatever you think it's worth. It could be meaningless or it might be useful.

Quelle: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2543425-record-shorting-in-silver?uprof=37

Quelle: bigcharts.com

Gold-"Markt": Paper-Market Penetration Part X.

No comments required:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quote:

Gold Plunges Back Below $1300 As "Someone" Dumps $2.3 Billion In Futures

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2014 11:00 -0400

With The Fed proclaiming bubbles in some of the most-loved segments of the stock market and explaining that the economy is doing "ok" but they must remain dovish for longer for feasr of "false dawns"... what better time than now to dump $2.3 Billion notional in futures... of course the dump in gold's anti-status quo price coincided with an odd v-shaped recovery in stocks... Gold remains above its pre-June FOMC levels still.

The break was precipitated by the sale of over 17,000 contracts (or over $2.3 Billion notional)...

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-15/gold-plunges-back-below-1300-someone-dumps-15-billion-futures

Silber: Nächste Entscheidung steht an, Spannung steigt

Die letzten CoT-Daten an der COMEX deuten erneut auf eine brisante Situation im Silber Papier- & Termin-Markt hin. Die Short-Positionen des „Managed Moneys“ (hauptsächlich Hedgefonds) sind zuletzt wieder auf irrwitzige Hochstände gelaufen.

„..Now let us look at silver, using the same market data. The shock comes with our first chart, which is of Managed Money short positions. These trend-chasers have got themselves into a potential trap, with short positions totalling 214,020,000 ounces, equivalent to 25% of annual global mine output. Whether or not they can extricate themselves from this position will depend on the banks and commercial hedgers providing the liquidity for them to do so..”

Werfen Sie in diesen Tagen auch einen Blick auf die massive Volumen-Zunahme seit Start des 2. Quartals - hier scheint es hinter den Kulissen schon heiß zu werden. Die charttechnische Situation hat sich bei Silber während der letzten Handelstage wieder aufgehellt, nachdem der markante Bereich um 18,70 USD/Oz (Juni 2013 Tief) erneut erfolgreich verteidigt wurde. 

Es wird beim volatilen Silberpreis daher nicht nur chart- und markttechnisch wieder extrem spannend in den nächsten Tagen und Wochen..

Quelle: tradesignalonline.com, stock-world.de

MM Silver Shorts in Contracts, Quelle: 24hgold.com

Silber: Termin- und Papier-Markt: Aktuelle Positionierungen und Ausblicke

Im zweiten Teil des aktuellen Beitrags von lasdair Macleod auf 24hgold.com wird die Lage im "Silber-Papier-Markt" erörtert:

Market positions for gold and silver 

by Alasdair Macleod - Finance And Economics.org - Published : June 10th, 2014

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to the extreme technical positions in the market for gold and silver. The information is derived from the weekly Commitment of Traders reports, and the monthly Bank Participation reports. It should be noted that while these are the most complete sets of market reports available they are essentially of hedging and speculative activity, which is not the same as physical demand. Nor do they cover other paper markets, some of which are growing in importance, such the Shanghai Gold Futures Exchange.. 

Link: http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-market-positions-for-gold-and-silver.aspx?contributor=Alasdair+Macleod&article=5538221690H11690&redirect=False

..

Silver

Now let us look at silver, using the same market data. The shock comes with our first chart, which is of Managed Money short positions..

Quelle: 24hgold.com

Quelle: 24hgold.com

Quelle: 24hgold.com

Gold, Termin- und Papier-Markt: Aktuelle Positionierungen und Ausblicke

Ende des 2. Quartals und Anfang des 3. Quartals wird es wieder enorm spannend am Papier-Goldmarkt, wie man den aktuellen, brisanten Positionierungen der einflussreichen Spielern entnehmen kann. In jedem Fall liegt erneut eine explosive und sehr interessante Konstellation vor, die auch auf der Up Side erheblich überraschen könnte. 

Dazu passt auch der aktuelle "Fehlausbruch" beim Goldpreis nach unten, der diese Woche wieder gekauft wird (Momentaufnahme). Die enormen Short-Positionen könnten für krasse Bewegungen und eine starke Volatilität am / bis zum Ende des Monats sorgen.

Hierzu Folgend zu diesem Thema ein informativer Beitrag von lasdair Macleod auf 24hgold.com:

Market positions for gold and silver 

by Alasdair Macleod - Finance And Economics.org - Published : June 10th, 2014

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to the extreme technical positions in the market for gold and silver. The information is derived from the weekly Commitment of Traders reports, and the monthly Bank Participation reports. It should be noted that while these are the most complete sets of market reports available they are essentially of hedging and speculative activity, which is not the same as physical demand. Nor do they cover other paper markets, some of which are growing in importance, such the Shanghai Gold Futures Exchange..

Link: http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-market-positions-for-gold-and-silver.aspx?contributor=Alasdair+Macleod&article=5538221690H11690&redirect=False

Quelle: 24hgold.com

Quelle: 24hgold.com

Quelle: 24hgold.com

Irrwitzige Short-Quoten: Kinross Gold, Yamana Gold und New Gold

Das Short-Selling in einigen Goldminen-Aktien erreicht während der letzten Wochen in zahlreichen Titeln wieder irrwitzige Level. Bei Kinross Gold (NYE:KGC), Yamana Gold (NYE:AUY) und New Gold (NYE:NGD) lassen sich gegenwärtig besonders krasse Short-Quoten einmal mehr feststellen. Alle diese Shorts müssen früher oder später gecovert werden, was eine massive Aktienkurs-Explosion auslösen sollte..

Hierzu ein Ausschnitt aus einem aktuellen Beitrag von The Motley Fool mit den aktuellen Short-Zahlen der oben genannten Goldproduzenten:

Are These Heavily Shorted Gold Stocks Set to Soar?

By Nelson Smith - May 7, 2014 | See also: AUY, K, NGD, YRI 

There are a lot of benefits of being a contrarian investor.

..

Kinross Gold

Investors have turned bearish on Kinross Gold (TSX: K) over the last few weeks, increasing their short position on the company almost 50%, from 27 million shares to more than 40 million.

This likely has something to do with investors nervousness about the Russian government, where the company has about a quarter of its assets. As the Ukraine situation gets more dicey, investors get more nervous about how geopolitics could affect the company’s future in the region. Will the Russian government do the unthinkable and seize Kinross’s assets?

That’s unlikely, to say the least. Since Russian officials have significant assets overseas, it’s not in the country’s best interest to blindly seize Canadian assets. Considering Russia exports a great deal of its natural resources, seizing assets in the country will likely anger its customers, and lead to reduced markets for its resources. For an economy as resource rich as Russia’s, that’s certain death.

Yamana Gold

Yamana Gold’s (TSX: YRI)(NYSE: AUY) shares are also being bet against by a large number of investors, as more than 22 million shares are now being sold short.

Investors with a long-term time horizon see a company that’s trading for less than it’s net asset value, and has a comfortable cash position. It just completed a feasibility study on the Cerro Maro project, which is projected to be one of the entire industry’s lowest cost mines. The company also indicated that its cost-cutting programs have been successful, which should lead to increased cash flow in 2014.

New Gold

Shares in New Gold (TSX: NGD) are also heavily bet against, as investors have sold more than 39 million shares short. This represents almost 35 days worth of trading.

The company just beat its first quarter earnings forecast, and has been upgraded recently by Jennings Capital, which sees a potential upside of more than 35% higher than current levels. Analysts are bullish about the company’s low cost base, increasing production, and the location of the company’s mines, which are all in geopolitically stable regions..

..

Link: http://www.fool.ca/2014/05/07/are-these-heavily-shorted-gold-stocks-set-to-soar/

Quelle: bigcharts.com

Gold-Papier-Markt: US-Großbanken wieder mit 50k-Kontrakten Netto-Long

Die 4 großen US-Banken haben ihre Short-Positionen auf den Terminmarkt-Goldpreis in den letzten 12 Monaten massiv zurückgefahren. Dadurch konnten die mächtigen Player im Gold-Papier-Kasino COMEX  parallel zum großen Goldpreis-Einbruch in 2013 ihre Shorts mit signifikanten Gewinnen schließen.

Die Positionierung hat sich während der letzten paar Monate nun komplett gedreht und die 4 einflussreichsten Big Player der Finanzbranche - allen voran natürlich Goldman und JP Morgan - sind nun Anfang Dezember 2013 satte 55k+ Kontrakte wieder Netto-Long an der COMEX.

Und damit ist die Sachlage auf der Seite der Banken zunächst relativ klar - die Big 4 spekulieren wieder auf einen erheblichen Goldpreis-Anstieg..

Quelle: http://www.elliott-waves.com/freie-analysen/paradigmenwechsel-am-papiergoldmarkt/14129/

Gold: Short-Quote an der COMEX steigt auf neues ATH

Seit Mitte 2012 haben sich die COMEX Gold Shorts (Optionen & Futures) nun mehr als verzehnfacht. In der Historie folgten auf solch hohe Short-Quoten früher oder später stets aggressive Short-Coverings, welche für ordentlichen Kaufdruck am ETF/ETP-Goldmarkt sorgten. Bis dato lässt sich jedoch nur feststellen, dass die Gold Shorts an der COMEX trotz des neuen ATH-Niveaus noch keine Anzeichen für einen Rückgang zeigen.

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quote:

COMEX Gold Optionen & Futures: Short Positionen auf neuem ATH

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2013/05/comex-gold-optionen-futures-short.html

COMEX Gold Optionen & Futures: Short Positionen auf neuem ATH

An der COMEX wird es langsam aber sicher heiß:

Speculator Gold Gross Shorts At All Time Highs

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2013 14:22 -0400

Premia for gold bars (physical over paper) rallied to their highest since late-2008 according to SocGen, even as 'professional' investors look to position the exact other way. The combined short positions of futures and options speculators in COMEX gold is now at a record high for the third week (having surged from 4.3 million ounces in late September to a a stunning 13.9 million ounces short now. At the same time, Gold ETFs have only seen one in-flow day in the last 34 days. It seems investors are well-and-truly on one side of this boat - even as price continues to buck the supposed structural weakness..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-13/speculator-gold-gross-shorts-all-time-highs

Quelle: zerohedge.com