Posts mit dem Label Yellen werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Posts mit dem Label Yellen werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen

Donnerstag, 15. Dezember 2016

Nach FED-Entscheidung: Chaos am Devisen- und Anleihe-Markt

Der Yen und Euro befinden sich zum US-Dollar nach der FED-Entscheidung im freien Fall. Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht auf Zerohedge:

Dollar Surges, Yields Soar, Euro Tumbles To 13 Year Low As Markets React To Hawkish Fed

This morning the world awakes to a landscape in which markets are frantically rushing to catch up to a suddenly hawkish Fed which not only hiked for the second time in a decade but, as per yesterday's Fed statement and Yellen press conference, realized it has been behind the curve all along, and the result has been a spike in the dollar across virtually all currency pairs with the USDJPY surging above 118.40, coupled with a jump in bond yields around the globe as bond (the US 10 Year is trading at 2.64%, the highest since September 2014) as traders dump any hint of duration..

Freitag, 18. November 2016

Dollar-Index erreicht neues Jahreshoch, Euro verzeichnet historische Verlustserie

Der viel beachtete USD-Index brach in den letzten Tagen über die markante Marke von 100 aus (Momentaufnahme) und erreichte ein neues Mehrjahreshoch. Parallel steigen die Chancen einer Zinserhöhung in den USA im Dezember auf den höchsten Stand YTD. Währenddessen befinden sich Euro und Yen zum US-Dollar in einem historischen Fall. Hierzu zwei aufschlussreiche Charts:

Quelle: bloomberg.com


Quellebloomberg.com

Samstag, 24. September 2016

Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: Der Wochenrückblick von Haywood

Hier finden Sie den Wochen-Report von Haywood:

The Weekly Dig

Haywood Mining Team
Investors Sceptical on Copper as Red Metal Hits $2.20/lb

While the Federal Reserve announced its decision to hold interest rates (as expected) given continued weak economic data out of the U.S., the price of copper has defied the bears in September, rising from just above $2.00 per pound on September 1 through the $2.20 per pound level on Friday. Many commentators remain unconvinced that better times are ahead for copper, with the red metal commonly viewed as a useful guide to the state of the global economy. Certainly the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates could be seen as supporting this view, although some would view the Feds decision to keep interest rates on hold as more to do with timing given the impending U.S. election; in a statement released on Wednesday the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible rate hike this year, most likely in December, which may provide upward momentum for copper and other base metals in the medium term. 

Meanwhile, after testing the $1,300 per ounce level last week, the Feds decision saw the price of gold rise 2% following the announcement before finishing at $1,338 per ounce on Friday. Gold equities followed suit, with the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index rising 4% to finish at 64.9 on Friday. Silver (↑5%), platinum (↑3.7%) and palladium (↑4.3%) were all up, finishing at $19.70, $1,055 and $704 per ounce respectively. In base metals, nickel prices surged almost 9% this week, finishing at $4.82 per pound while lead (↓1.4%) and zinc (↑3%) each finished at $0.87 and $1.03 per pound respectively. The price of WTI crude regained some of its recent losses, up 2.6% to finish at $45. Finally, the UxC Weekly Spot Price of uranium was down (↓3.1%) closing at $24.12 per pound on Friday..





Quellestockcharts.com

Sonntag, 18. September 2016

Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: Der Wochenrückblick von Haywood

Werfen Sie einen Blick in den informativen Wochenrückblick von Haywood:

The Weekly Dig

Mick Carew, PhD
Haywood Mining Team
Gold Tests $1,300 per Ounce Level Amid Continued Fed Uncertainty

The price of gold continued to fall this week amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision later this month as investors continued to cover short positions in the yellow metal. The central bank will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, and some market watchers are still considering the possibility the Fed will raise interest rates at the meeting. This comes despite U.S. retail sales figures this week for the month of August, which showed a decline of 0.3%. It was the first decline in retail sales since March. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims were up slightly and mortgage applications rose last week,PPI for final demand was flat in August. On Friday, the yellow metal closed at $13,11 per ounce, testing the $1,300 per ounce level which many gold bugs believe represents a floor in the price of gold. Gold equities were also down this week; the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index fell 5% to finish at 234 on Friday while the S&P/TSX Venture Index was down 1.5% to finish at 799. Silver (↓1.5%) and platinum (↓4%) fell along with gold, finishing at $18.76 and $1,015 per ounce, while palladium rose slightly during the week to finish at $671 per ounce. The base metals, copper jumped 3% on Wednesday, finishing at $2.16 per pound. Lead was also up 5% while nickel (↓4%) and zinc (↓1.5%) were down for the week. The price of WTI crude fell to finish at $43.21 (↓5%).


Important Information and Legal Disclaimers
This report is neither a solicitation for the purchase of securities nor an offer of securities. Our ratings are intended only for clients of Haywood Securities Inc., and those of its wholly owned subsidiary, Haywood Securities (USA) Inc., and such clients are cautioned to consult the respective firm prior to purchasing or selling any security recommended or views contained in this report.  



Freitag, 16. September 2016

US-Notenbank FED: Chancen einer Zinserhöhung brechen ein

Nach einigen schlechten Daten zur US-Wirtschaft befinden sich die Rate Hide Odds wieder deutlich im Sinkflug. Der Markt rechnet mit keiner Zinserhöhung bei der nächsten FED-Sitzung im September (21.09) und sieht die Chancen auf eine Zinserhöhung im Dezember aktuell auch nur noch bei ca. 45%..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Sonntag, 4. September 2016

Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: Der Wochenrückblick von Haywood

Werfen Sie einen Blick in den informativen Wochen-Report von Haywood.

The Weekly Dig
Mick Carew, PhD, mcarew@haywood.com
Haywood Mining Team

Lower than Expected U.S. Jobs Data Spurs Late-Week Gold Rally

§  The price of gold and gold-related equities continued to fall early in the week, with the yellow metal falling towards the $1,300 level as the possibility of an earlier-than-expected rate hike in 2016 appeared more likely. This speculation was supported by positive macroeconomic data earlier in the week, with jobs data in particular suggesting employment in the U.S. continued to be robust. The gold price fell as low as 1,305 per ounce during intra-day trading on Wednesday as investors exited the gold space. However, after a rally on Thursday which saw some of these losses recouped, non-farm payroll data for August came in lower than expected; rising by 151,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 275,000 increase in July. This was well short if the 180,000 new jobs predicted by economists. August traditionally has been a difficult month for jobs numbers, and 2016 proved no exception, likely putting the Federal Reserve on hold for a rate hike anytime soon. Gold finished at $1,328 on Friday, while silver was up (4%) after an early week fall, finishing at 19.52 per ounce. Platinum (↓1%) and palladium (↓1.4%) were both lower, finishing at $1,064 and $680 per ounce respectively. Base metals were up this week, with copper (0.3%), nickel (2.5%), lead (3.6%) and zinc (2.05%) each finishing at $2.09, $4.54, $0.88 and $1.07 per pound respectively. The price of WTI crude fell heavily early in the week before regaining some of those losses on Friday to finish at $44.20 per barrel.


This report may be distributed in the following states: nil. Otherwise, this report may only be distributed into those states with an institutional buyer state securities registration exemption.  






Sonntag, 28. August 2016

Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: Der Wochenrückblick von Haywood

Werfen Sie einen Blick in den informativen Wochenrückblick.

The Weekly Dig
Mick Carew, PhD, mcarew@haywood.com
Haywood Mining Team

Markets Jitter as Investors Prepare for Possible End-Of-Year Rate Rise

§  Today, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that the case for raising U.S. interest rates had strengthened in recent months because of improvements in the labour market and expectations for moderate economic growth. The Fed last raised rates in December last year, its first hike in nearly a decade, but has since held off further increases due to a global growth slowdown, financial market volatility and generally tepid U.S. inflation data. With an election looming, most commentators see a raise in September as unlikely; instead December looms as the month for a possible rate hike reflecting last year’s rise in December. However, the Fed again reiterated its position that if rates are raised, they will be done so gradually. As expected, markets were jittery on the news, having fallen during the week as bullish employment data heightened expectations of a positive economic outlook from the Fed; on Tuesday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell over one hundred points before stabilizing at 14,639 at close. Investors in gold and gold mining equities appeared to have anticipated the Fed’s tone, with gold falling 1.5% during the week, and finishing at $1.320 per ounce on Friday; silver (↓3.4%), platinum (↓3.9%)  and palladium (↓3.2%)  also fell, finishing at $18.61, $1,071 and $685 per ounce. Base metals followed a similar trend, with copper (↓4%) and nickel (↓5.6%) both finishing lower at $2.06 and $4.43 per pound; lead was down slightly (↓0.3%) while zinc bucked the trend, finishing higher at $1.05 per pound. WTI crude prices had a volatile week after inventories rose before finishing lower at $47.33 per barrel.


This report may be distributed in the following states: nil. Otherwise, this report may only be distributed into those states with an institutional buyer state securities registration exemption.  



Montag, 8. August 2016

Montag, 1. August 2016

Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: Der Wochenrückblick von Haywood

Werfen Sie einen Blick in den informativen Wochen-Rückblick. Die kanadischen Börsenplätze sind heute aufgrund eines Feiertags (Civic Holiday) geschlossen.

The Weekly Dig
Mick Carew, PhD, mcarew@haywood.com
Haywood Mining Team

Gold Price Rises as U.S. Rates Unchanged and Presidential Campaign Heats Up

§  As expected, U.S. interest rates were held steady, as continued global economic uncertainty weighed on the minds of the Federal Reserve’s board members. Following the announcement, a statement from the Federal Reserve suggested a somewhat positive outlook for the U.S. economy, stating that "near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished" and the job market is "improving". The Fed's decision was not unanimous, however, as one of the 10 board members voted to raise the rate but was outnumbered. Nevertheless, expectations of a rate hike before the end of the year appear to be gathering momentum. The week also saw Hillary Clinton accept the Presidential Nomination for the Democratic Party; with both candidates now confirmed, the stage is set for a fiery campaign leading to the November election. On the back of both announcements, and worse than expected GDP numbers, the price of gold gained 2% for the week and finished at $1,357 per ounce. Gold equities rose accordingly, with the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index regaining much of the losses incurred nsince hitting a multi-year high of 277 on July 11. The Index rose 7% for the week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index continued its steady rise towards the 800 mark, up 3.5% to finish at 796 on Friday. Silver, Platinum and palladium were also higher, finishing at $20.40 (á3.5%), $1,148 (á5.7%) and $709 (á3.4%) per ounce respectively. Base metals were mixed; lead (â0.8%) was down, while copper (á0.1%), nickel (á2%) and and zinc (á0.1%) rose to finish at $2.23, $4.80 and $1.02 per pound. WTI prices fell 7%, while the UxC Weekly Spot Price of uranium was up (á4.5%) closing at $26.13 per pound on Friday.


This report may be distributed in the following states: nil. Otherwise, this report may only be distributed into those states with an institutional buyer state securities registration exemption.  


Mittwoch, 27. Juli 2016

Big Picture: QE-Wahn läuft weiter, expansive Geldpolitik auf Allzeithoch

Zwar hat die FED die QE-Maßnahmen eingestellt, doch die expansive Geldpolitik in der westlichen Welt bewegt sich auf einem Rekordhoch. Dies ist natürlich auf die extrem expansive Geldmarktpolitik in der EU und in Japan zurückzuführen..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Dienstag, 12. April 2016

Krisen-Sitzung: Obama trifft Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen

Hierzu ein aktueller Beitrag von den DWN:

Krisen-Sitzung: Obama trifft Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 12.04.16

US-Präsident Obama hat sich mit der Chefin der US-Notenbank zu einem Krisen-Gespräch getroffen. Das Gespräch dürfte dem Zweck gedient haben, Verwerfungen an den Märkten bis zur Wahl im November möglichst zu verhindern..

Sonntag, 3. April 2016

Rohstoff- und Minenbranche: The Dig - Wochen-Rückblick vom Haywood Mining Team

Der lesenswerte Wochenrückblick von Haywood:

Industry Report 
April 1, 2016

The Weekly Dig
Mick Carew, PhD, mcarew@haywood.com
Haywood Mining Team

Uranium Prices Slide as Lack of Immediate Demand & Excess Inventory Loom

§  Given the surge in metal prices during Q1/16, the uranium price decline over the same period is somewhat of an anomaly. Gold (↑9%), copper (↑2%) and even iron ore (↑23%) have each experienced gains since the end of 2015, albeit coinciding with significant price volatility. However, uranium prices during Q1/16 have been disappointing, again falling below the $29.00 per pound this week; the UxC Broker Average (BAP) Price of uranium finished at $27.33, its lowest price since June, 2009, and potentially sets up the weekly uranium spot price on Monday for its lowest level in over 10 years. The decline in the price of uranium can be attributed to a dearth of non-discretionary buying from utilities combined with an over-supplied market which continues to inflate global inventories, partially attributable to the continued shutdown of Japanese reactors and the ramp-up of production at selected uranium mines including Cigar Lake. Meanwhile, both precious and base metal prices declined this week; the price of gold rose on Tuesday to over $1,240 per ounce during intra-day trading on the back of more dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, but subsequently fell again later in the week following better-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data (see page 2). Silver (↓1%) and palladium (↓2%) prices finished at $15.08 and $564 per ounce, which platinum finished slightly higher at $956 per ounce on Friday. Copper (↓2.4%), nickel (↓4%) and lead (↓0.73%) prices each fell during the week, while zinc was the shining light for base metals, finishing up 4.1% at $0.85 per pound as zinc supply concerns following several mine closure last year continue to mount. Finally, WTI crude prices fell sharply to 36.71 per barrel on Friday after OPEC oil output rose again in March.

This report may be distributed in the following states: nil. Otherwise, this report may only be distributed into those states with an institutional buyer state securities registration exemption.  

Mittwoch, 16. März 2016

Spannung vor dem nächsten FED-Treffen

Hierzu ein informativer Bericht von Zerohedge:

Trading The FOMC

Tyler Durden's picture




With the market already pricing in dramatically fewer rate-hikes that the "cheerleading" Fed,Deutsche Bank expects the USD to respond favorably to the FOMC’s signals on Wednesday,contrary to the pattern seen after the last four FOMC meetings with press conferences.
The waning influence of the Fed’s projections is showing up in derivatives markets. After the December revision to the projected path of interest rates, traders responded much less than they did earlier in the year in the market for derivatives known as overnight-indexed swaps.

But, as Deutsche's Alan Ruskin notes, the likely comment on the balance of risks will be one indication that all upcoming FOMC meetings are "live." Among the conundrums facing the Fed, are how much weight to place in the predictive powers of the past (USD led) tightening in financial conditions; and the signal from a flatter yield curve...
Table 1 shows how FX and bond markets have typically registered much larger (absolute) one day price changes on days when FOMC’s end with a press conference than when they don’t. These FOMC press conference daily moves also vastly exceed the sustained reaction on payroll days. The reasons are not hard to find – FOMC days with press conferences, have the Fed Chair Q&A, as well as the economic projections and the notorious dot plot to respond to.
On these main elements, we expect the March meeting to break as follows:
i) The dot plot. DB’s econ team expects the median dots to come down by 25bps for all of 2016, 2017, 2018 and the longer-run. Prima facie this may seem dovish but the dots will have to come down by more than this, especially the 2016 dot, to be seen as genuinely bullish, because the market is pricing in so much less than the Fed projects. The market has less tightening priced in for the end of 2018 than the Dec FOMC median dot for the end of 2016!

Mittwoch, 17. September 2014

Wichtiger Tag, FOMC Meeting: Yellen's große Muppet Show geht in die nächste Runde

Zerohedge dazu mit dem jüngsten Beitrag.

Vor den marktrelevanten Ereignissen noch die "geniale" Quote der Woche v. Yellen an Amerika's arme Bevölkerung:

"..Her message? It is important to build assets, or said otherwise...  get rich..."


Hilsenrath Backs Away From His "Considerable Time" Prediction


Tyler Durden's picture



Yesterday's exuberant equity market reaction has been largely defined by the mainstream media as driven by WSJ Hilsenrath's 'confirmation' that Yellen will keep the uber-dovish phrase "considerable time" in the FOMC statement today. So, we wonder, why did the Fed-whisperer, after markets had closed last night, issue a quasi-retraction of his prediction explaining that instead of some prohetical "I just know" statement, it was a "best guess," as he concluded, "will the Fed take these steps? Only the people in the room know that. The rest of us will see Wednesday afternoon." It appears the sell-side disagrees with him on the language...

In a webcast Tuesday, I explained why I thought the Federal Reserve would stick with, but qualify, an important phrase in its policy statement Wednesday which assures near-zero interest rates for a “considerable time.” This was simply my best analysis of where I think the Fed is going based on what we have been reporting and what officials have said in the past.

...

Here’s my analysis: Janet Yellen is a methodical individual and the Fed, in normal times, is a slow-moving institution. It takes time for debates to play out. Ms. Yellen is seeking consensus, as we reported earlier this week. The considerable time debate doesn’t feel ripened or fully aired. When Ms. Yellen has used the phrase in recent months she has qualified it, but not suggested changing it. Meantime the Fed has other business on its plate. The exit plan has been in the works for months, as has the plan to end bond buying. Changing the “considerable time” guidance now, while also announcing an exit plan, could be viewed by market participants as a surprising move toward raising rates.

Fed officials haven’t forgotten last year’s “taper tantrum,” when long-term interest rates shot up as they commenced discussions about winding down the bond program.

We reported earlier this week that Ms. Yellen, as Fed chairwoman, hasn’t behaved as the easy-money policy “dove” that many market participants expected. That doesn’t mean she’s suddenly a hawk. It just means she’s not a dove.

Ms. Yellen’s most logical next step, to my mind, would be to stick for the time being to what she’s been saying, which is that rates will stay low for a “considerable time” with the strong qualification that this could change if the job market keeps improving quickly. Staying on message this month could entail signaling an end to the bond program and a more formal exit strategy. The Fed would then have time to air out a change in the “considerable time” formulation for a later date, giving Ms. Yellen time to get all of her colleagues on board.
*  *  *
He concludes: "Will the Fed take these steps? Only the people in the room know that. The rest of us will see Wednesday afternoon."
*  *  *
Indeed Jon.
*  *  *
But here is what the sell-side thinks...
Fed expected to adopt more hawkish stance at Sept. 16-17
meeting, debate whether to drop “considerable time” language from
statement, based on published research.
Barclays
  • Fed expected to take “modestly hawkish” tone at meeting, Barclays strategists led by Rajiv Setia wrote in report
  • “Dovish dots” seen moving higher, press conference will have “subtle shifts” in tone
  • Fed likely to retain “considerable time” language; if dropped,
    “front end should get hurt” and “10/30 curve should still flatten”
BofAML
  • First rate increase now seen as occurring next June vs. Sept. 2015, economist Ethan Harris wrote in note
  • Growth has been stronger than expected, while inflation is in line with Fed’s forecast
  • Fed could drop reference to “considerable time”
Jefferies
  • Fed statement to be “somewhat more hawkish” than in past, economists Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons wrote in note
  • FOMC meeting will fail to clarify ambiguity over timing of rate lift-off
JPM
  • First rate increase is now expected next June vs 3Q 2015, economist Michael Feroli wrote in note
  • Sees 25bps increase in Fed funds corridor to 25bps-50bps; subsequent
    moves in Sept. and Dec., bringing corridor to 75bps-100bps by end of
    2015
Market Securities
  • Fed to modify “considerable time,” cut QE by another $10b, strategist Christophe Barraud wrote in note
Morgan Stanley
  • Fed’s 2017 dots may prompt curve shifts, strategists led by Matthew Hornbach wrote in note
  • “Stage is set for some disappointment” if Fed doesn’t change “considerable time” language
Renaissance Macro
  • Fed’s more hawkish outcome may be priced into markets now, economist Neil Dutta wrote in note
  • “We cannot be entirely sure” how hawkish FOMC meeting will be
SGH Advisors
  • FOMC may change forward guidance language, CEO Sassan Ghahramani wrote
  • Growing number of FOMC members appear to be pressing for change
Standard Chartered
  • FOMC meeting to have “moderately hawkish tone,” economist Thomas Costerg wrote in note
  • Fed members will note downward trend in unemployment rate, healthy payroll growth
  • “Considerable time” expected to be removed
TD
  • Fed to change “considerable time wording, take more hawkish tone,
    Eric Green, head of U.S. rates and economic research, wrote in note
  • Fed policy is set to become more flexible, retain message that there will be slow path to normalization

Donnerstag, 19. Juni 2014

Gold und Silber ziehen nach FOMC-Meeting deutlich an

Was das Wörtchen 'Inflation' so anrichten kann. Gold und Silber scheinen sich dieses Mal gegen den Trend behaupten zu können, nachdem das Interesse der Bankster an einem fallenden Goldpreis in den FOMC-Wochen natürlich besonders hoch ist. Gold zeigt so einmal mehr dieses Jahr, dass es äußerst gerne gegen den Mainstream läuft.

Weiter scheint die abermalige "Muppet Show" der FED gestern inkl. den so vielen, luftigen Aussagen der Präsidentin Yellen einige Marktteilnehmer überzeugt zu haben, Gold wieder zu spielen. 

Parallel ergeben sich im Papiergold-Markt passenderweise wieder sehr brisante Konstellationen, nachdem die Short-Positionen des Smart Moneys (primär Hedgefonds) Anfang Juni erst auf enorme Stände angewachsen sind. Und genau die kommen jetzt unter Druck. Auf das alles habe ich Sie in den letzten Wochen oft hingewiesen. Diese Mischung ergibt natürlich einen explosiven Cocktail..


Quelle: kitco.com


Quelle: kitco.com


Quelle: boerse-go.de



Quote:

How Gold Performs During FOMC Weeks (Spoiler Alert: Not Good)

Tyler Durden's picture

What is more confidence-inspiring in the Fed's ability to manage the world and the continued dominance of the US Dollar as global reserve currency than a falling gold price... and when better to show that than FOMC meeting weeks... welcome to the centrally-planned world where the announcement of ongoing trillions in fiat dilution constantly crushes the price of undilutable money..


Mittwoch, 18. Juni 2014

FOMC Meeting 18. Juni 2014: Yellen Statements

Die folgenden Statements von Yellen bei der traditionellen Präsentation der FOMC-Ergebnisse aka Muppet Show kann man unkommentiert stehen lassen. Das Kartenhaus der FED wird im großen Bild immer fragiler und wackliger:

Quelle: boerse-go.de


Update:

Das folgende Statement schießt natürlich wieder den Vogel komplett ab, göttlich! Niemand kann der guten Yellen vorwerfen, sie habe keinen Humor:
"..Yellen: Es ist von zentraler Bedeutung, dass der Bankensektor stärker (als vor der Finanzkrise) reguliert werden muss.."