Big Picture: Bilanzsumme der führenden Zentralbanken knackt die Marke von 15 Billionen US-Dollar

Alleine seit Jahresanfang haben die Zentralbanken der westlichen Welt ihre Bilanzen um irrwitzige 1,5 Billionen US-Dollar erweitert..

Big Picture: Aufkaufprogramme der Zentralbanken erreicht neues Rekordhoch

Noch nie zuvor haben die führenden Zentralbanken höhere Summen an Finanzanlagen aufgekauft wie in 2017 YTD:

Quelle: zerohedge.com, BofA

Quelle: zerohedge.com, Deutsche Bank

Gold: Zentralbanken bleiben auf der Käuferseite aktiv

In den letzten Jahren haben die führenden Notenbanken immense Summen an physischem Gold erworben:

Quelle: usfunds.com

Gold: Visualisierung der besonderen Rarität und Wertbeständigkeit

Informativer Artikel - featured auf Zerohedge:

Visualizing Gold's Value And Rarity

Since Ancient times, Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, gold has served a very unique function in society.

Gold is extremely rare, impossible to create out of “thin air”, easily identifiable, malleable, and it does not tarnish. By nature of these properties, gold has been highly valued throughout history for every tiny ounce of weight. That’s why it’s been used by people for centuries as a monetary metal, a symbol of wealth, and a store of value..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-17/visualizing-golds-value-and-rarity

Quelle: visualcapitalist.com

Quelle: visualcapitalist.com

Big Picture: Goldpreis vs. kumulierte Bilanzsummen der wichtigsten Zentralbanken

Die aggregierte Bilanzsumme der FED, EZB, SNB, PBoC und BoJ markiert in 2016 ein neues Rekordhoch und steht jetzt bei über 17 Billionen USD:

Quelle: In Gold We Trust, incrementum.li

Big Picture, USA: Nettovermögen der Haushalte vs. nominales BIP (1992-2016)

Ein weiteres, großes Warnsignal..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Geldpolitik: Keine Zinserhöhung in den USA, FED über Kurs der amerikanischen Geldpolitik zerstritten

Wie erwartet lässt die FED die Zinsen unverändert. Die Mitglieder des FOMC-Führungsgremiums sind sich zunehmend uneinig über die Entwicklung der geldpolitischen Maßnahmen..

Divided Fed Holds Fire, Signals 2016 Rate Increase Still Likely

September 21, 2016 — 8:00 PM CESTUpdated on September 21, 2016 — 8:48 PM CEST

A divided Federal Reserve left its policy interest rate unchanged to await more evidence of progress toward its goals, while projecting that an increase is still likely by year-end.

“Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in its statement Wednesday after a two-day meeting in Washington. “The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives..”

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged-signals-2016-hike-still-likely

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Big Picture: Bilanzsummen der wichtigsten Notenbanken steigen auf neues Rekordhoch

Die gigantische Aufblähung der Bilanzsummen der Notenbanken geht in die nächste Runde. Die aggregierte Summe der Bilanzen nähert sich bereits der Marke von unfassbaren 20 Billionen US-Dollar bzw. 40% des GDPs der involvierten Nationen..

Quelle: Citi Research, Haver

Gold-Markt: Rekordhohe Investment-Nachfrage im 1. Halbjahr 2016

Hierzu die jüngsten Analysen vom World Gold Council (WGC):

Near record high in H1 demand driven by western investors

Published 11 August, 2016 - Download (pdf, 301.58 KB)

Global gold demand reached 2,335 tonnes (t) in the first half of 2016 with investment reaching record H1 levels, 16% higher than the previous record in H1 2009, according to the World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report..

Link: http://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/near-record-high-h1-demand-driven-western-investors

Quelle: gold.org

Liquiditätsflut der Notenbanken hält an: Bilanz-Entwicklung der FED, EZB, BoJ, BoE, SNB und PBoC seit 2003

Die Liquiditätsschwemme der weltweiten Zentralbanken während der letzten 13 Jahre bleibt historisch. So geht größte Finanzexperiment der Menschheitsgeschichte in die nächste Runde..

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Schweizer Nationalbank (SNB) kauft massiv amerikanische Aktien zu

Die massiven Verzerrungen der globalen Kapitalmärkte durch die gigantischen Interventionen und Aktivitäten der Zentralbanken gehen in die nächste Runde..

Quelle: SNB, zerohedge.com

Big Picture: Bilanzsumme der EZB erreicht neues Rekordhoch

Die expansive Geldpolitik in der Eurozone erreicht einen neuen Rekordwert..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com

MUST READ: In Gold We Trust 2016 by Incrementum

Der jährliche MUST READ Gold-Report - credit to Ronnie Stöferle @ Incrementum:

In Gold We Trust 2016

Gold is back! With the strongest quarterly performance in 30 years, the precious metal in Q1 2016 emerged from the bear market that had been in force since 2013. A decisive factor in this comeback is growing uncertainty over the recovery of the post-Lehman economy. After years of administering high doses of monetary painkillers, will the Fed succeed in discontinuing the practice? Or is the entire therapy about to be fundamentally challenged?

Generating growth and inflation remains the imperative of monetary policy. The systematic credit expansion required for this just doesn’t want to get going. Even the ECB, which initially acted with restraint after the financial crisis, is nowadays stuck in a perennial loop of monetary improvisation and stimulus. General uncertainty has now increased even further after the surprise outcome of the Brexit referendum.

After years of pursuing low interest rate policies, central banks have maneuvered themselves into a lose-lose situation: Both continuing and ending the low interest rate regime harbors considerable risks. In an attempt to finally achieve the desired boost to growth, a monetary Rubicon has been crossed in several currency areas with the imposition of negative interest rates. Gold is increasingly attractive in this environment. It used to be said that gold doesn’t pay interest, now it can be said that it doesn’t cost interest.  

As a last resort, even the radical measure of helicopter money is considered these days. As the flood of liquidity has hitherto primarily triggered asset price inflation, newly created money is now supposed to be injected into the economy by circumventing the banking system in order to boost aggregate demand. It seems realistic to expect that such a windfall would indeed ignite the much-coveted price inflation. Whether it will be possible to put the genie back into the bottle once it has escaped is a different question.  

An exit from the Fed’s monetary emergency programs has been announced for years in the US. This, together with the perception that the economy was recovering, led to a strengthening US dollar in recent years. Commodities and gold weakened as a result. So far, the actual extent of the normalization of monetary policy consists of the discontinuation of QE 3 and a single rate hike by 25 bps.  

The US economic expansion appears to have run its course already. Should the rate hike cycle that has been initiated fail, a significant loss of confidence in the central bank’s policies and with it the USD appears likely. This would go hand in hand with rising commodity prices and a return of inflation and would represent a “perfect storm” for gold.  

We believe the time for investing in inflation-sensitive assets has come. Apart from gold, silver and mining stocks offer very interesting opportunities. After several years of drastic adjustments, it is likely that mining shares will once again exhibit strong gold price leverage. 

We believe that the events of the past year are validating our views and are maintaining our gold price target of USD 2,300 by June 2018.

Incrementum Liechtenstein AG | Email: contact@incrementum.li

Download extended version of “In Gold We Trust 2016” (pdf)
Download compact version of “In Gold We Trust 2016” (pdf)

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Gold, Zentralbanken: Venezuela bleibt der größte Verkäufer

In den letzten Quartalen verkaufte der Krisenstaat Venezuela beträchtliche Mengen an physischem Gold:

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Positiv für Gold: Realzinssatz verweilt im negativen Bereich

Informativer Chart, der die negative Korrelation zwischen den realen Zinsen und dem Goldpreis auf einen Blick aufzeigt. Aufgrund der zunehmenden "Null- und Negativzinsen" in der Westlichen Welt, bleibt der reale Zinssatz im negativen Bereich..

Quelle: BlackRock

Der Aufstieg der Deflation

Vor allem in der Westlichen Welt ist der deflationäre Trend seit einigen Jahren auf dem Vormarsch..

Quelle: reuters.com

Entwicklungen der globalen Devisen-Reserven

Die globalen Devisen-Reserven fallen seit 2014 zurück. Sehr interessant sind vor allem die Entwicklungen in den Emerging Markets inkl. China. Der Blick auf den informativen Langfrist-Chart:

Quelle: J.P. Morgan, IMF

Gold: Käufe der Notenbanken steigen in 2015 auf Jahrzehnthoch

Die Goldkäufe der Zentralbanken erreichen in 2015 einen neuen Verlaufshochstand. Der Blick auf den eindrucksvollen Langfrist-Chart:

Quelle: WGC, Tocqueville

Gold- und Silberpreis: Manipulationen der Deutschen Bank nur die Spitze des Eisbergs?

Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht von Zerohedge:

Is Deutsche Bank’s Gold Manipulation The Main Scam Or Just A Side-Show?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/18/2016 08:50 -0400

• Barclays
 
• Central Banks
 
• Deutsche Bank
 
• Gold Bugs
 
• Merrill
 
• Precious Metals
 
• Term Sheet

Submitted by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

For years now, the easiest way to finesse a debate over whether precious metals markets are manipulated has been to say, “well, if they’re not manipulated they’re the only market that isn’t.”

That was unsatisfying, though, because as the big banks got caught scamming their customers on interest rates, mortgage bonds, forex and commodities trades, those markets (presumably) began to operate more-or-less honestly. Gold and silver, meanwhile, kept right on acting strangely, for instance plunging in the middle of the night on no news but massive futures volume, to the detriment of honest investors and traders who naively bet their capital on fundamentals. The (already huge) amount of money thus stolen from gold bugs kept rising.

So it is with relief that fans of honest markets have greeted the news that at least one kind of precious metals manipulation has been exposed..

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/deutsche-bank-settles-silver-price-fixing-claims-lawyers-say

Quelle: stockcharts.com

FED-Bilanzsumme vs. Geldumlaufgeschwindigkeit

Die Geldumlaufgeschwindigkeit in den USA befindet sich weiterhin auf dem Sinkflug..

Quelle: reuters.com