Emerging Markets: Türkische Lira und Argentinischer Peso im freien Fall

Seit Jahresanfang belaufen sich die Verluste bei der Türkischen Lira und dem Argentinischen Peso gegenüber dem US-Dollar bereits auf über 20%. Generell stehen einige EM-Währungen erheblich unter Druck:

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Eisenerz: Stabile Nachfrage-Steigerung erwartet

Hierzu die aktuelle Prognose von Minengigant Rio Tinto (RIO):

Quelle: riotinto.com

A November To Remember

Der November 2016 wird an den Kapitalmärkten sicher in die Geschichtsbücher eingehen:

November To Remember - Unprecedented Month In Markets Ends Weak

• Russell 2000 +11% - best since October 2011
• Dow +5.5% - best since March 2016
• US Financial Stocks +14% - best since April 2009
• Goldman Sachs +23% - best since December 2000
• US Energy Stocks +9% - best since October 2015
• FANG Stocks -6.2% - worst since March 2014
• "Most Shorted" Stocks +11% - best since September 2010
• US Treasury Bonds (TLT) -8% - worst since January 2009
• Treasury 'VIX' +18% - worst since January 2015
• Emerging Market Bonds -4.7% - worst since May 2013
• Risk-Parity Funds -3.1% - worst since December 2015
• USD Index +3.8% - best since September 2014
• Mexican Peso -8.6% - worst since May 2012
• Japanese Yen -8.9% - worst since August 1995
• Chinese Yuan -2% - worst since December 2015
• Emerging Market FX -4.5% - worst since May 2012
• Gold -8% - worst since June 2013
• Silver -8% - worst since May 2016
• Copper +19% - best since March 2009
• BIS "Fear' Index (Global Basis Swap) -3bps - worst since Feb 2016

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/november-remember-unprecedented-month-markets-ends-weak

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Höchster Anstieg seit 2009: Entwicklung der globalen Firmen-Insolvenzen (2004-2016)

Das Jahr 2016 ist erst zu 3/4 vorbei, doch die weltweiten Firmenpleiten summieren sich YTD bereits auf den höchsten Stand seit 2009. Ein weiteres Warnsignal..

Quelle: S&P Financial Services LLC

Emerging Markets vs. S&P 500: Gap nähert sich Rekordständen

Während die amerikanischen Aktien-Indizes in den letzten Jahren von Rekordhoch zu Rekordhoch jagen, zeigen die Aktienkurse in den Emerging Markets seit langer Zeit nach unten. Die Kurslücke der EM-Aktien zum amerikanischen Leitindex S&P 500 steht knapp unter dem Rekordhoch..

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Performance-Übersicht der wichtigsten Anlageklasse im Juli 2016

Neben Silber (Top-Performer YTD) erlebten im Juli 2016 vor allem europäische Aktien eine Gewinn-Rally. Währenddessen verbuchten Energierohstoffe und Soft Commodities deutliche Verluste.

Hierzu eine informative Performance-Übersicht - credit to DB & ZH:

Quelle: Deutsche Bank, zerohedge.com

Wachstum der Welt-Wirtschaft: Einfluss der Emerging Markets wächst ungebrochen weiter

Eindrucksvoller Chart, der die wachsende Dominanz der EM beim globalen GDP aufzeigt..

Quelle: reuters.com

Big Picture: 50% des Wachstums der Welt-Wirtschaft entfallen auf die USA und China

Ohne die Emerging Markets würde das Wachstum der Welt-Wirtschaft nahezu stagnieren..

Quelle: Deutsche Bank

Parallelen zu den USA: BIP-Wachstum in China kann nicht mit Schulden-Anstieg mithalten

Der gewaltige Schulden-Anstieg in China spricht Bände. Seit einigen Jahren entwickelt sich das Kredit-Wachstum auch wesentlich schneller als die BIP-Wachstumsraten, was gewiss ein Warnsignal ist. Die Parallelen zu den hoch verschuldeten USA nehmen beträchtlich zu..

Quele: WSJ

Big Picture: Stärkster Anstieg der globalen Insolvenzen seit der Finanzkrise

Vor allem in den USA ziehen die Firmen-Insolvenzen seit Jahresstart signifikant an..

Quelle: S&P

IMF kürzt erneut Wachstumsprognosen für Weltwirtschaft

Hier die aktuelle Übersicht:

Quelle: IMF

Quelle: zerohedge.com, IMF

Rückblick 1. Quartal 2016: Gold und Silber mit starker Outperformance

Vor allem die Edelmetalle konnten im 1. Quartal 2016 überzeugen:

Quelle: bloomberg.com, Goldman Sachs

Emerging Markets: Historisch hohe Kapital-Abflüsse in 2015

Bemerkenswerter Chart - credit to FT:

Quelle: FT

Emerging Markets: Kapital-Abflüsse betragen 250 Mrd. USD seit 2013

Nach einem gigantischen Hype erfolgt bei den Kapital-Anlagen in den Emerging Markets ein signifikanter Einbruch..

Quelle: reuters.com

Gold vs. Equities: Ratios vor Bodenbildung?

Es mehren sich in den letzten Wochen die Anzeichen, dass Gold im Vergleich zu Standard-Aktien ("Gold to Equities Ratio") einen nachhaltigen Boden ausbildet. Jordan von TheDailyGold hat hierzu ein paar informative Charts erstellt - hier geht es zu seinem aktuellen Update:

Quelle: thedailygold.com

Weltwirtschaft: Globales Handelsvolumen zum ersten Mal seit 2009 rückläufig

Ein weiteres, wichtiges Barometer der Weltwirtschaft (vgl. Baltic Dry Index) zeigt zunehmend Schwäche. Der informative Blick auf den Langfrist-Chart des Welt-Handelsvolumens:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quote:

Welthandel, Frachtschiffahrt: Baltic Dry Index fällt auf neues Allzeittief - Krise in China bleibt im Fokus

Nach einer stärkeren Erholung zur Jahresmitte bricht der Baltic Dry Index in den letzten Wochen auf ein neues Rekordtief ein..

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2015/11/welthandel-frachtschiffahrt-baltic-dry.html

Morgan Stanley, mining stocks: "Emerging markets, miners a screaming buy"

Und auf einmal geht Morgan Stanley in den "Bullen-Modus" über - gewiss kein Zufall.

Der Hauptgrund für die heutige Kurs-Explosion bei den Blue Chips der Rohstoff- und Minenbranche:

Emerging markets, miners a screaming buy, says Morgan Stanley

Published: Oct 7, 2015 8:35 a.m. ET

Strategists lift mining sector to overweight from underweight

A one-two punch of global-growth jitters and a slump in commodity prices are freaking out investors. In that atmosphere investors have become skittish about buying battered stocks now.

Morgan Stanley, however, argues that the time to buy those assets is now.

In a Wednesday note, the investment firm makes the case that the stars are aligning to make emerging-markets and miner stocks a good fourth-quarter bet.

“While many investors remain wary of markets just here, we think we’re setting up for a strong 4Q rally, even if the next few weeks remain volatile.”Morgan Stanley

“We recommend investors raise their exposure to EM/commodities given the combination of very low sentiment, attractive relative valuations and a likely inflection in macro sentiment,” analysts led by Graham Secker, the bank’s chief European equity strategist, said in the report.

“While many investors remain wary of markets just here, we think we’re setting up for a strong 4Q rally, even if the next few weeks remain volatile.”

Morgan Stanley says the real boost should come from China. That is the same China that unsettled investors, sparking a global rout in markets this summer. The bank says improved news flow out of China on both economic growth and policy-making should lift sentiment across emerging markets.

Fears of a so-called hard landing in China, as Beijing attempts to manage a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, hit emerging-markets stocks and their currencies.

Emerging-market equity funds have seen 14 consecutive weeks of outflows, with the current outflows representing the largest since 2008, according to Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley argues that 10 weeks of outflows typically is a good contrarian buy signal and that “any sign of stabilization of EM data would be the catalyst to encourage investors to start to rotate away from their current positioning.”

To reflect the newfound bullish stance on emerging markets, Morgan Stanley made a round of recommendation changes.

First, they upgraded the mining sector to overweight from underweight, based on expectations for stronger demand in the short term and extremely low valuations. On a company specific basis, Morgan Stanley lifted Rio Tinto RIO, +7.48%RIO, +7.34% RIO, +3.29% and BHP Billiton BLT, +4.58% BHP, +3.20% BHP, +1.59% to overweight from equal weight and raised Anglo American AAL, +9.98% to equal weight from underweight.

Secondly, the strategists said they are increasing the weighting toward companies exposed to emerging markets at the expense of European stock exposure. Within their basket of overweight-rated stocks with China-exposure, they pointed to Burberry BRBY, +1.39% BURBY, +2.29% LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis VuittonMC, +1.10% BMW BMW, +4.08% and Swedish ball-bearing maker SKFSKFB, +0.19% to name a few.

And third, Morgan Stanley recommended an overweight position in the U.K.’s FTSE 100 UKX, -0.01% while going underweight the more domestic-driven FTSE 250 IndexMCX, -0.59% This is partly because of the FTSE 100’s heavy weighting in mining shares, as well as the benchmark’s underperformance over the past 12 months..

Quelle: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/emerging-markets-miners-a-screaming-buy-says-morgan-stanley-2015-10-07

Uran-Major Cameco erzielt Deal mit Energie-Behörde in Indien

Cameco (NYE:CCJ) erreicht ansehnlichen Firmen-Meilenstein:

Cameco Announces Contract With India To Provide Uranium For Electricity Generation

SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN--(Marketwired - April 15, 2015) -

ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN CDN $ (UNLESS NOTED)

Cameco (TSX:CCO) (NYSE:CCJ) announced today that Cameco Inc. has signed a supply agreement with the Department of Atomic Energy of India to provide 7.1 million pounds of uranium concentrate under a long-term contract through 2020.

The contract is Cameco Inc.'s first with India which is the world's second fastest growing market for nuclear fuel. India operates 21 nuclear reactors providing 6,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity meeting about 3% of the country's electricity needs. Another six reactors totalling 4,300 megawatts are under construction and scheduled to come online by 2017. By 2032, India expects to have 45,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity.

"This contract opens the door to a dynamic and expanding uranium market," said Tim Gitzel, Cameco's president and CEO. "Much of the long-term growth we see coming in our industry will happen in India and this emerging market is key to our strategy."

Export of Canadian uranium to India for the generation of electricity is authorized by the Canada-India Nuclear Co-operation Agreement which came into force in September 2013.

"We thank Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall whose strong support laid the groundwork for this agreement," said Gitzel. "We expect it will lead to growing trade in nuclear products and services between our nations for the generation of clean nuclear electricity."

Link: http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/cameco-announces-contract-with-india-to-provide-uranium-for-electricity-generation-tsx-cco-2010106.htm

Quelle: bigcharts.com

Nordgold: Wachstumsstarker Goldproduzent mit Fokus auf Emerging Markets

Der Aktienkurs des relativ unbekannten, russischen Goldproduzenten Nordgold (LSE:NORD) steht wie die meisten Kurse der Goldkonzerne aktuell stark unter Druck, obwohl die Gesellschaft starke Fundamentaldaten und Fortschritte vorweisen kann.

Nordgold nimmt die Meilenstein-Marke von einer Millionen Goldunzen in der Jahresproduktion bereits ins Visier und treibt erfolgreich ein diversifiziertes Projektportfolio voran. Unter anderem entwickelt Nordgold mit dem kanadischen Juniorminer Columbus Gold (TSX-V:CGT) ein Multi-Millionen Goldunzen schweres Goldprojekt in Französisch Guyana, welches das nächste große Wachstumsprojekt des ambitionierten Goldförderers werden kann.

Sobald sich ein Boden in der Goldminenbranche abzeichnet und Aktien von russischen Konzernen bei den Anlegern weltweit wieder höher im Kurs stehen, hat Nordgold großes Potential eine sehr lukrative Turnaround-Story zu werden. Die aktuelle Börsen-Bewertung von lediglich rund 500 Mio. USD steht in allen Relationen zu den Fundamental-Daten auf einem extrem niedrigen Niveau.

Unsung gold miner nears million oz/year mark

Nord Gold has again seen increased Y-on-Y gold output from its operations in the FSU and West Africa.

RELATED STORIES

• Nord Gold Q1 revenue down 7% year-on-year
• Nord Gold signs $500m facility to repay existing debt
• Nord Gold hunts for bargains after gold price plummets
• Nord Gold reports 40% decline in Q3 net income
• Nord Gold Q3 revenue up 1% year-on-year

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 22 Oct 2014 

LONDON (MINEWEB) - 

Russian owned and London listed gold miner, Nord Gold, seems to have a relatively low key publicity policy compared with many of its peers keeping it under the radar as far as many investors are concerned, and also tends to be exceedingly conservative in its production guidance. 

For example, having already produced 746 900 ounces of gold this year, with a quarterly rise to 270 600 ounces in Q3, it is still guiding annual production as likely to be at the top end of the 900-950 000 ounce range. However, short of a substantial fall-off in gold output in Q4 it looks to be headed to enter the Tier 1 group of gold miners this year exceeding 1 million ounces of gold - and growing.  While this may not quite put it among the world’s top 10 gold miners in 2014, it is certainly getting close.

Admittedly, a repeat of last year’s Q4 gold output figure of 201 400 ounces would indeed have it just meet guidance as noted, but it’s not a case where the company is likely to see a fall-off in gold output for seasonal reasons in Q4. Indeed last year its Q4 production was 4% higher than its Q3 output and if this kind of performance is repeated this year it could easily see 2014 total gold output of comfortably over 1 million ounces, perhaps 60 or 70 000 ounces above its quoted guidance figure.

Nord Gold has been building output both through bringing new gold mining operations on stream, expansion of existing mines and, perhaps most importantly through strategic acquisitions. It now operates in four countries across two continents, and is making moves into a third continent with the acquisition of a stake in Columbus Gold, and therefore claims to be one of the most geographically diversified companies in the industry. 

It is a dividend-paying pure-play gold producer strategically focused on emerging markets, and has just announced strong Q3 numbers: 6% growth in revenue and 11% increase in output year on year despite the challenging gold price environment.

It now operates nine mines and has two development projects, four advanced exploration projects and a diverse portfolio of early-stage exploration projects and licenses in Russia, Kazakhstan, Burkina Faso, Guinea and French Guiana and employs about 10 000 people worldwide. It reckons to have achieved a growth profile unmatched in the industry since its formation as a gold producing subsidiary of Russian steel company Severstal back in 2007.

The company notes that in the first nine months of 2014, eight out of its nine mines achieved a year-on-year production increase mainly as a result of measures it has implemented to improve operational efficiency at the mines. Double digit growth was recorded at Bissa, Taparko, Lefa, both the Buryatzoloto underground mines (Irokinda and Zun-Holba) and Neryungri.

Despite a lower gold price, revenues in Q3 2014 were US$344.8 million, a 6% increase compared with $325.3 million in Q3 2013 and a 1% increase compared with $342.1 million in Q2 2014, due to higher gold production and sales volumes.

For the first nine months of 2014, Nord Gold revenues increased by 2% Y-o-Y to $961.8 million, despite a 10% decrease in the average realised gold price. This has also enabled it to reduce unaudited net debt at the end of the quarter to approximately $635.0 million compared with $687.0 million at the end Q2, reflecting the strong positive free cash flow generated.

Link: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=257473&sn=Detail

Quelle: markets.ft.com

Quote:

Perspektiven verbessert, Übernahme-Potential wächst weiter: Projekt-Partner Nordgold steigt offiziell bei Columbus Gold ein

Nächste Meilensteinnews für Columbus Gold, dem federführenden Explorer und Developer der Multi-Millionen Goldunzen schweren Paul Isnard Discovery..

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2014/10/ubernahme-potential-wachst-weiter.html

Minenbranche: Netto-Gewinne der Top 40 Minen-Firmen in 2013 auf Jahrzehntief

Passendes, prägnantes Review zur Minenbranche in 2013 mit dem Fokus auf die Finanzergebnisse und Rekord-Abschreibungen. Nicht vergessen, dass diese Zahlen durch die Mega-Baisse von 2012+2013 in den Minen- und vorallem bei den Goldminen hinreichend in den Aktienkursen und Bewertungen eingepreist sein dürften. Die Börse hat mit 2013 längst abgeschlossen..

Top 40 miners’ profits at 10-year low – report

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Tough industry conditions over the past year have driven the profits of the top 40 global mining companies to their deepest depths in a decade, a report by professional services firm PwC has shown.

According to PwC’s eleventh yearly ‘Mine’ report, titled ‘Realigning expectations’, which analysed the world’s 40 largest miners by market capitalisation, record impairments of $57-billion were recorded in 2013 with net profits having declined by 72% to $20-billion.

“2013 was a year that forced miners to really look in the mirror and realign what it is that they [have] to do in terms of their strategy with the realities in the environment in which they operate,” PwC energy and mining assurance partner and deputy regional senior partner Dion Shango said at a press launch of the report on Thursday.

He also pointed out that the market capitalisation of the top 40 largest mining companies fell by $280-billion, or 23%, year-on-year in 2013.

Gold miners, which were particularly affected by a low price, which declined by 28% during the year, were the hardest hit, with this mining sector having lost $110-billion of its market capitalisation, representing 40% of the total 23% year-on-year decline.

However, despite these challenges, it was interesting to note that dividends paid by these companies continued to rise, said Shango.

Gross dividends paid increased by 5% in 2013, while dividend yields were up 4%. The total of $41-billion in dividends paid out was double the companies’ net profits of $20-billion, he pointed out.

PwC energy and mining assurance partner Andries Rossouw said this was as a result of mining companies making use of the cash they had on hand, as they were not investing in as many new projects, combined with shareholders putting pressure on the companies to return some of their cash.

However, given the uncertainty surrounding commodity prices, these levels of shareholder returns might not be sustainable for much longer, Shonga said, adding that this was evident in recent changes in dividend policies.

Further, the report also found that, for the first time, in 2013, the majority, or 53%, of the 40 largest mining companies came from emerging markets.

The change in the global mining landscape also saw a divergence in the collective performance between emerging market companies and their developed market counterparts. Collectively, emerging market mining companies contributed aggregate net profits of $24-billion in 2013, while their developed market counterparts suffered an aggregate net loss of $4-billion, impacted particularly by impairments, the report noted.

FUTURE

Rossouw pointed out that cost saving initiatives implemented by mining companies had not yet come to fruition, with many miners still reporting increases in operating expenses; however, early 2014 reporting indicated that these initiatives were starting to show some success, with gold companies particularly reporting substantial all-in cost reductions.

He added that, in the long term, the mining industry had the right demand-side fundamentals; however, companies would have to supply that demand at the right cost and margins to remain sustainable.

“The question is [also] whether the short-term demands that are currently out there from the shareholders, government and labour, can be managed to realign the expectations to create a long-term sustainable industry,” he said.

Shango stated that it was clear that these short-term focuses and demands had the potential to undermine the long-term sustainability of the industry.

 “As long as that continues, we will sit in this low confidence environment that continues to suppress commodity prices, which, in turn, will make it difficult for mining companies to viably get into new projects and to continue delivering returns for all stakeholders in the long term,” he said.

Quelle: http://www.miningweekly.com/article/top-40-miners-profits-at-10-year-low-report-2014-06-05