Posts mit dem Label Zyklus werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Posts mit dem Label Zyklus werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen

Mittwoch, 15. März 2017

Interview mit Hedgefonds-Manager Warren Irwin über sein Investitionsverfahren, NexGen Energy und den neuen Bullenmarkt

Informatives Interview mit einem der erfolgreichsten Fondsmanager der Welt:




Quote:

BarclayHedge Ranks Rosseau's Special Situation Hedge Fund as the Top Performing Hedge Fund in the World for 2016

TORONTO, March 14, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --

The G10-Rosseau Special Situations Fund (US) LP, managed by Rosseau Asset Management Ltd. of Toronto, earned the top position in 2016 among the 4,099 hedge funds tracked by BarclayHedge with a 156.32% annual return. Rosseau funds also took the second and sixth spots with returns of 155.94% and 128.89%, respectively.

Warren Irwin, President and Chief Investment Officer, is pleased to have Rosseau'sachievements recognized by an established industry leader like BarclayHedge. "The strong rebound in the resource sector was very refreshing after years of challenging markets. We spent the downturn focused on finding the best special situations available and were rewarded handsomely for our efforts in 2016." Rosseau's flagship fund, Rosseau LP, was established over 18 years ago and has an average annual compound rate of return since inception of 16.61% to February 28, 2017..

Donnerstag, 22. September 2016

Australien: Entwicklung der Explorationsaufwendungen (2000-2016)

Auf diesem spannenden Langfrist-Chart kann man sehr gut die extreme, zyklische Art der Rohstoffindustrie ablesen. Bemerkenswert ist auf jeden Fall, dass die Explorationsaufwendungen in Down Under im 1. Quartal 2016 auf den tiefsten Stand seit 10 Jahren gefallen waren..

Quelle: ABS, Matau Advisory

Sonntag, 21. August 2016

Agrarrohstoffe: S&P GSCI Weizen-Index mit Preiskampf am 10-Jahrestief

Nach einem jahrelangen Ausverkauf könnte sich der Abwärtssog bei den Soft Commodities inkl. Weizen nun abschwächen. Schließlich sind die Weizenpreise sogar zuletzt auf ein neues 10-Jahrestief gefallen und notieren im Langfristchart auf einem zyklischen Tiefpunkt. Nach wie vor belastet ein globales Überangebot den Weizenpreis. Daneben stehen auch die Lagerbestände auf einem Rekordhoch..

Quelle: zerohedge.com



Sonntag, 14. August 2016

Rohstoff-Markt: Ist Indien der Auslöser eines neuen Super-Zyklus'?

Hierzu ein informativer Artikel von Mining.com:

CHARTS: Maybe India can ignite new commodity supercycle

According to the World Bank, together the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) consume 40% of global energy and food commodities and over half of the world's metals. China alone accounted for virtually all the increase in metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc) consumption of the BRICs since 1994.

India's consumption of metals almost doubled over the past 20 years. But it's only taken the sub-continent's global share from 1.9% to 3.4% according to the report. By contrast, China's share of worldwide metals consumption went from 6.4% in 1990 to 43.9% last year..

Sonntag, 7. August 2016

Leit-Index S&P 500: Positive Entwicklung in Wahljahren

Bis dato scheinen sich auch in diesem Wahljahr die positiven Einflüsse auf den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt zu bewahrheiten. Doch viele Marktteilnehmer erinnern sich gewiss noch an den Herbst 2008.. 

Hierzu eine spannende Übersicht - credit to Pension Partners:



Dienstag, 12. April 2016

Kupfer: Der besondere Boom-Bust-Zyklus

Hierzu ein informativer Beitrag von Reuters:

Investment in copper, a boom and bust cycle of a different kind: Andy Home

By Andy Home

LONDON (Reuters) - (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) Do you remember JPMorgan's Physical Copper Trust..?




Donnerstag, 29. Januar 2015

Investment-Firma Baker Steel Resources sieht Ende des Bärenmarktes im Rohstoff- und Minen-Sektor kommen

Baker Steel Resources, geführt von ehemaligen Top-Managern bei BlackRock, plant weitere 100 Mio. Pfund in den Rohstoff- und Minen-Sektor zu investieren:

Baker Steel Resources calls bottom of the commodities market

Investment firm announces £100m fundraising to target assets at bottom of the cycle 100j

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Mining companies are tackling a slump in commodities prices, which could provide rich pickings for targeted investors
Mining companies are tackling a slump in commodities prices, which could provide rich pickings for targeted investors Photo: ALAMY
Commodities investor Baker Steel Resources is raising £100m for acquisitions as it calls the bottom of the resources market..

Zweitgrößter Minen-Konzern Rio Tinto bleibt an der Exploration-Front aktiv, Kupfer in 2015 im Fokus

Branchengigant Rio Tinto (NYE:RIO) hält an seinen Explorationsplänen trotz Baisse fest:
"..Spending on exploration in areas without existing operations for all Rio’s commodities will be slightly less than $200 million, little changed from 2014, said Stephen McIntosh, the head of exploration at the London-based company. 
The story of Rio Tinto exploration is really our focus on the long term,” McIntosh said today in an interview in Vancouver. “For the exploration industry, the current tough times just show us that the economic cycle is alive and well.."

Der global diversifizierte Minen-Konzern legte letzte Woche ordentliche Produktionszahlen vor.
Quelle: riotinto.com


Quelle: riotinto.com

Sonntag, 23. November 2014

Exklusiv-Interview mit dem Chef von Goldcorp: Chancen in der Krisenphase für finanzstarke Unternehmen

Lesenswert:
Sprott's Thoughts
Henry Bonner

Exclusive Interview with CEO of World's Largest Gold Miner -- Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp

By Henry Bonner (hbonner@sprottglobal.com)

Chuck Jeannes is the CEO of Goldcorp Inc., the largest gold mining company in the world by its market cap of almost $17 billion.

Goldcorp operates mines all over North and South America. This year, Goldcorp took part in a takeover battle for Osisko Mining. After Goldcorp made an initial hostile bid, Osisko did what most companies do in that situation – it shopped around for another bidder. In the end, Osisko succeeded in soliciting a substantially higher bid, which it finally accepted, from Yamana and Agnico Eagle.
Mr. Jeannes explained the reasoning behind its Osisko takeover attempt, among other subjects. In the end, ‘that opportunity for value creation evaporated so we walked away,’ he explained. But takeover battles have not been all bad for him – that’s actually how he first encountered Ian Telfer, the man who would later put him at the helm of Goldcorp.

Goldcorp is the third-largest holding of Sprott’s new ETF, the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:SGDM). As of November 20, the ETF had a 12.91% weighting in Goldcorp Inc., which is subject to change. For more information and disclosures, please visit www.SprottETFs.com. Our affiliate, Sprott Asset Management LP, is the sub-advisor to the Sprott Gold Miners ETF.

How does a major mining company like Goldcorp use a bear market in precious metals to grow its business?

Well, many of the mining businesses that have been successful over the last 10 to 15 years had their start in the last bear market. The current market feels a lot like 1999-2000 and that was a time when the companies that had the ability to do so had fantastic opportunities to go out an acquire assets at deflated prices and build new companies.

If you look back at the success of Goldcorp, for example, it started with Ian Telfer doing exactly that with Wheaton River. At that point in time, I was part of Glamis Gold and we were doing the same thing -- acquiring assets in a bear market at low prices. The result is what you see today -- Goldcorp, which has become the largest gold mining firm in the world by market capitalization, after we put Glamis and Goldcorp together. Sorry, that’s a long answer to a simple question, but I see this market as one of opportunity for a company like ours that has the balance sheet to do something.

Ian Telfer, a well-known figure in the mining sector who is credited with building up several multi-billion-dollar mining firms1, is the person who nominated you for the CEO position at Goldcorp. How did you first meet Ian and how did your business relationship with him come about?

Well, it’s kind of interesting. Of course, you meet a lot of people at conferences and so on, and I think I maybe had shaken hands with him a few times before. We really got to know each other when Glamis Gold made a hostile bid to take over Goldcorp in late 2004. Goldcorp turned to Wheaton River for a friendly transaction as a defensive measure against our bid. Ian was the CEO of Wheaton River and he and Rob McEwen at Goldcorp were fighting off the bid from Glamis Gold. Of course, during the period of a hostile bid, there isn’t much socializing among the antagonists! But at the end I will always remember how gracious Ian was. They won the day and Wheaton River and Goldcorp merged. I then went to the shareholders’ meeting to be the official Glamis representative. Ian was, as I said, very gracious as a winner and reminded me that it was a small business and that we’d be crossing paths again. Indeed, a few years later, we did -- when Glamis and Goldcorp got together on a friendly basis.

Goldcorp recently faced off against Yamana Gold and Agnico Eagle to take over Osisko, a producing mining company. It looks like Yamana and Agnico Eagle have taken the prize with a larger bid. Are big miners changing their strategy to take over producing mining companies instead of raw deposits? Are they becoming purely mine operators instead of mine builders?

No, I wouldn’t say so. I think the bid for Osisko was an opportunity that we saw to create value based on a mispricing of that company and its shares late last year and early this year. With a low gold price and a lack of interest in the equity markets, we just felt that Osisko was extremely undervalued. If we could acquire that company at the right price, we liked the asset and it would fit well into our portfolio. It’s all about price, though, and after we made the bid, the gold market came back a bit and the equities all traded up. That opportunity for value creation evaporated so we walked away.

You’ve said that the mining business is a ‘people business’ – it’s not all about the rocks in the ground. How does having the right team impact the viability of a mining company over the long term?

I think it’s all about the humans that are making the decisions at these mining companies. The business is based on getting rock out of the ground, doing it at the right costs and with the right capital expenditures, but there are people making every one of those decisions, doing the initial resource modeling, the feasibility studies, and then actually building and operating the mines.

The better the people, the better the success you’re going to have. I absolutely believe that success in this business, or any business, is about having the best-quality people. You can look in our industry – there have been some big strategic decisions made over the last decade. Some of those have turned out really well, and some not so well. Those decisions were all made by people. So, I think you have to look first to the quality of the people in a company as the critical item for your investment criteria.

In your experience of operating and building mines, what have been some of the positive surprises, and what have been some of the negative surprises or unforeseen risks that have materialized?

On the positive side, it’s usually always the geology. If you look at our Eleonore project in Quebec as an example, we based that decision to build the mine on the belief that we had 4 or 5 million ounces of gold in potential resources that would eventually become proven reserves, and this would justify building the mine. As we started building it, we increased that to 7 million ounces and I’m confident that it will move up well above 10 million ounces over time. When you get to know a deposit, you find that you often had more ounces than you initially expected. That’s consistent over the entire industry. Most mines outlive their initial feasibility-study mine life because additional resources are found along the way. That’s one of the reasons, I think, that people make a mistake by valuing mining companies just based on current proven and probable reserves. Historically, those reserves tend to grow over time.

As to negatives, it would be ‘country risk.’ That’s something that is part of our business and we just have to deal with. For instance, along with Barrick as the operator, we built the Pueblo Viejo mine in Dominican Republic and just after we finished constructing it, the government came back for another piece of the pie. That is something that you have no power to stop, but when it happens it can be fairly detrimental. That mine is operating fairly well and spinning off a lot of cash. They still did take an extra piece of it..

Donnerstag, 18. September 2014

Kohle: Temporäre Sektor-Baisse und Klimawandel werden Dominanz und Attraktivität als Energieträger nicht beeinträchtigen

Zerohedge greift die These oben in einem aktuellen Beitrag passend auf - lesenswert:


Why King Coal Will Keep Its Crown

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/17/2014 11:24 -0400 - Submitted by Andrew Topf via OilPrice.com

For climate change activists and those hoping for an energy future dominated by renewables or even less-polluting natural gas, the death of coal cannot come quickly enough. But with coal still the dominant form of cheap electricity throughout the world, it is unlikely the bogeyman of climate change will disappear anytime soon.

That's because the price of coal, compared to other fuels, is just too good to refuse. Just look at China, where the country's double-digit economic growth has largely been fueled by coal, which fulfills 60 percent of its energy mix.

According to a chart showing the levelized cost of energy -- the price at which electricity must be generated from a source to break even -- coal is the second-cheapest form of energy behind hydropower, at $40 per megawatt hour..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-17/why-king-coal-will-keep-its-crown



Quelle: zerohedge.com, Fraunhofer ISE




Quote:

Kohle wird dominanter Energieträger in China bleiben

Kohle war, ist und bleibt der wichtigste Fossilbrennstoff im Reich der Mitte. Zwar werden die jährlichen, prozentualen Wachstumsraten bis 2030 nach den letzten IEA-Prognosen nur noch moderat steigen, jedoch wird die absolute Nachfragemenge gigantische Regionen erreichen..

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2013/04/kohle-wird-dominanter-energietrager-in.html



Quote: #2:

Chinesische Kohle-Konzerne: Weiter tief in der Baisse gefangen 

Die meisten chinesischen Kohle-Produzenten zahlen bei der Förderung schon eine lange Zeit drauf. Die Bewertungen der führenden Kohle-Konzerne sind in den letzten Tagen auf ein neues Tief gesunken. Eine massive Konsolidierung steht an. Parallel steigt der Druck von der Verschuldungs-Seite enorm an..

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2014/02/chinesische-kohle-konzerne-weiter-tief.html



Quote #3:

Antizyklische Investment-Chancen: Kohle-Sektor auf Mehrjahres-Tiefständen

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2014/09/antizyklische-investment-chancen-kohle.html

Montag, 8. September 2014

Junior-Mining, Rohstoffsektor: Neue Interviews mit Branchen-Experte Brent Cook

Aktuelles Update von Brent Cook's Exploration Insights:


Exploration Insights

September 7, 2014 Brent Cook interviews
Exploration Insights
by Brent Cook
The first week of September Brent was a guest on BNN's Commodity report, watch here.
On Thursday, Brent was co-host on Jay Taylor's internet radio show, Turning Hard Times into Good Times, where they discussed some of the issues surrounding the science of global warming with Harvard Professor Naomi Oreskes. To listen to the mp3 recording, click Here..



Quelle: Brent Cook – Photo: Orefront

Sonntag, 7. September 2014

Antizyklische Investment-Chancen: Kohle-Sektor auf Mehrjahres-Tiefständen

Dazu ein aktueller Beitrag von Sprott:

Sprott's Thoughts
Henry Bonner

‘Met Coal’ Could Be Reaching a Cyclical Low

A particular type of coal – called metallurgical coal or coking coal – is used in the process of manufacturing of steel. After reaching a six-year low in its price and recent industry cutbacks to production, metallurgical coal is showing classic signs of a resource that is ready for a cyclical uptrend.
Steve Yuzpe, CEO of Sprott Resource Corp., specializes in finding long-term value plays in the private equity sector. He says metallurgical coal is an out-of-favor sector, and by his estimation, it is cheap and the price is probably due to improve.

In 2011, unusually heavy rainfall and flooding in Australia disrupted the production of metallurgical coal, causing the price to surge. The industry responded to higher prices by boosting their output of metallurgical coal, adding substantial production capacity. A lot of that new capacity depended on high prices to be economic, as they were brought online when metallurgical coal was over $300/tonne.
Long-term observers of resource markets will guess what happened next. The production increase led to an oversupply of metallurgical coal, causing the price to plummet. From 2011 to 2014, the price of metallurgical coal fell by over 60% to $120/tonne today.

At the current low price, more than half of the supply of metallurgical coal is being produced at a loss on operating costs, without accounting for exploration and development costs that must be recouped.  

Metallurgical Coal Export Cost Curve
Mackenzie Met Coal Costs 
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Quintana Capital

The industry has responded by announcing cuts to production, as lots of the new capacity has become uneconomic. The industry has announced cutbacks of over 20 million tonnes of production, representing approximately 6.5% of global exports.

Many industry participants are being wiped out. Steve says many stocks he’s been following in the sector are down over 90% since 2011. Since the 2011 peak, metallurgical coal producer Walter Energy, Inc. is down 96%2. Coal producer Arch Coal Inc. fell by around 91% in the same time period3 and another large producer, Alpha Natural Resources, Inc., fell by over 96%.

While supply cutbacks are underway, demand continues to grow steadily. Steel production, which drives the demand for metallurgical coal, has continued to rise gradually, growing by 2.4% in 2013 – in line with the average growth rate for steel production of 2.6% per year since 1980.5 Drivers for steel demand include urbanization in emerging economies, infrastructure spending and automotive demand.
Also, the demand for metallurgical coal is not jeopardized by competition in the energy sector from oil and gas, like conventional coal. Metallurgical coal is a specific type of coal that isn’t used to generate electricity.

We often point out that bull markets begin when shrinking supply encounters steady or rising demand for a commodity. In a bear market, producers cut costs and lower their general and administrative costs. They defer or cancel expansion plans, and put uneconomic mines on care and maintenance. Eventually, the lower supply cannot keep up with demand, which sets off an uptrend in the commodity price and encourages new investment.

Industry Expected Metallurgical Coal Production Cuts
Met Coal Production Costs 2
Source: Teck Resources 

Steve says metallurgical coal is an attractive target for contrarian resource investors, adding that Sprott Resource Corp. recently invested significant capital in Corsa Coal Corp. – a metallurgical coal producer in the United States. Steve believes Corsa Coal Corp. is strongly positioned in the current market environment with significant upside should metallurgical coal prices recover.

Sprott Resource Corp. is managed by one of Canada’s leading teams of resource private equity specialists. They currently have investments and operations in oil and gas, energy, agriculture and agricultural nutrients. They take an active involvement in the companies where they invest. They are dedicated to generating consistently superior returns on capital for shareholders, while focusing on risk management and real wealth preservation. For questions about Sprott Resource Corp., contact Steve Yuzpe by phone at 417.977.7333 or e-mail info@sprottresource.com, or visit their website www.sprottresource.com.

Mittwoch, 16. Juli 2014

CEO.CA: Canaccord’s Joe Mazumdar über Gold Mining und lukrative Goldprojekte

Nette Informationen inkl. Grafik aus einem jüngsten Bericht von Cannacord Genuity's Joe Mazumdar, kommentiert von CEO.CA:


These Are The Gold Projects You Want To Own In This Environment: Canaccord’s Joe Mazumdar
POSTED ON July 08, 2014 BY Travis McPherson
CATEGORY Canaccord Genuity, Joe Mazumdar,
Joe Mazumdar is the Director of Research and a Senior Mining Analyst at Canaccord Genuity Inc. here in Vancouver. He has a particularly interesting perspective on the mining sector, having spent the majority of his early years at large companies including: Mount Isa Mines (Australia), Rio Tinto (Argentina), Phelps Dodge (Phoenix, USA) and Newmont (Denver, CO) where his last position was as the Director of Strategic Planning. Joe has been a sell-side analyst for over four years now (with Haywood Securities for 3 years prior to Canaccord)..
Link: http://ceo.ca/2014/07/08/the-state-of-the-markets-with-canaccords-joe-mazumdar/#

Quelle: canaccordgenuity.com, 

Montag, 23. Juni 2014

Minenbranche: Netto-Gewinne der Top 40 Minen-Firmen in 2013 auf Jahrzehntief

Passendes, prägnantes Review zur Minenbranche in 2013 mit dem Fokus auf die Finanzergebnisse und Rekord-Abschreibungen. Nicht vergessen, dass diese Zahlen durch die Mega-Baisse von 2012+2013 in den Minen- und vorallem bei den Goldminen hinreichend in den Aktienkursen und Bewertungen eingepreist sein dürften. Die Börse hat mit 2013 längst abgeschlossen..

Top 40 miners’ profits at 10-year low – report
JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Tough industry conditions over the past year have driven the profits of the top 40 global mining companies to their deepest depths in a decade, a report by professional services firm PwC has shown.
According to PwC’s eleventh yearly ‘Mine’ report, titled ‘Realigning expectations’, which analysed the world’s 40 largest miners by market capitalisation, record impairments of $57-billion were recorded in 2013 with net profits having declined by 72% to $20-billion.
“2013 was a year that forced miners to really look in the mirror and realign what it is that they [have] to do in terms of their strategy with the realities in the environment in which they operate,” PwC energy and mining assurance partner and deputy regional senior partner Dion Shango said at a press launch of the report on Thursday.
He also pointed out that the market capitalisation of the top 40 largest mining companies fell by $280-billion, or 23%, year-on-year in 2013.
Gold miners, which were particularly affected by a low price, which declined by 28% during the year, were the hardest hit, with this mining sector having lost $110-billion of its market capitalisation, representing 40% of the total 23% year-on-year decline.
However, despite these challenges, it was interesting to note that dividends paid by these companies continued to rise, said Shango.
Gross dividends paid increased by 5% in 2013, while dividend yields were up 4%. The total of $41-billion in dividends paid out was double the companies’ net profits of $20-billion, he pointed out.
PwC energy and mining assurance partner Andries Rossouw said this was as a result of mining companies making use of the cash they had on hand, as they were not investing in as many new projects, combined with shareholders putting pressure on the companies to return some of their cash.
However, given the uncertainty surrounding commodity prices, these levels of shareholder returns might not be sustainable for much longer, Shonga said, adding that this was evident in recent changes in dividend policies.
Further, the report also found that, for the first time, in 2013, the majority, or 53%, of the 40 largest mining companies came from emerging markets.
The change in the global mining landscape also saw a divergence in the collective performance between emerging market companies and their developed market counterparts. Collectively, emerging market mining companies contributed aggregate net profits of $24-billion in 2013, while their developed market counterparts suffered an aggregate net loss of $4-billion, impacted particularly by impairments, the report noted.

FUTURE
Rossouw pointed out that cost saving initiatives implemented by mining companies had not yet come to fruition, with many miners still reporting increases in operating expenses; however, early 2014 reporting indicated that these initiatives were starting to show some success, with gold companies particularly reporting substantial all-in cost reductions.
He added that, in the long term, the mining industry had the right demand-side fundamentals; however, companies would have to supply that demand at the right cost and margins to remain sustainable.
“The question is [also] whether the short-term demands that are currently out there from the shareholders, government and labour, can be managed to realign the expectations to create a long-term sustainable industry,” he said.
Shango stated that it was clear that these short-term focuses and demands had the potential to undermine the long-term sustainability of the industry.
 “As long as that continues, we will sit in this low confidence environment that continues to suppress commodity prices, which, in turn, will make it difficult for mining companies to viably get into new projects and to continue delivering returns for all stakeholders in the long term,” he said.
Quelle: http://www.miningweekly.com/article/top-40-miners-profits-at-10-year-low-report-2014-06-05

Big Picture: Die große Blase in den US-Leitindizes, allen voran im DJI

Hierzu ein aktueller, lesenswerter Beitrag von Zerohedge. Die folgenden, informativen 3 Charts kann man unkommentiert stehen lassen.

Die großen Fragen bleiben: Wer kauft diesen irrwitzigen Markt noch (z.B. viele Aktienkäufe durch Aktienrückkäufe in Amerika, d.h. die US-Firmen halten selber den Markt oben + die Notenbank-Interventionen) und wann werden die ersten großen Adressen die Hebel richtig umlegen (Ein paar Instis cashen seit Q1 2014 ordentlich aus, Insider verkaufen, Retail hingegen wird in den Markt wieder reingezogen; so wie immer halt am Ende einer Hausse, nicht?!) ?

Oder hat seit den brachialen Notenbank-Interventionen am Equity Markt verbunden mit den historischen Niedrig-Zinsen ein  "New Normal" begonnen, dessen Blasenbildung alles in der Historie in den Schatten stellen wird?


Quelle: zerohedge.com



Quelle: zerohedge.com



Quelle: zerohedge.com