U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data
While many "conventional" indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed's target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.
This can be seen on both the linked chart, and the one zoomed in below, which shows the uncanny correlation between loan growth and economic recession.
And while we have repeatedly documented the sharp decline in US Commercial and Industrial loan growth over the past few months (most recently in "We Now Know "Who Hit The Brakes" As Loan Creation Crashes To Six Year Low") as US loans have failed to post any material increase in over 30 consecutive weeks, suddenly the US finds itself on the verge of an ominous inflection point.
After growing at a 7% Y/Y pace at the start of the year, which declined to 3% at the end of March and 2.6% at the end of April, the latest bank loan update from the Fed showed that the annual rate of increase in C&A loans is now down to just 1.6%, - the lowest since 2011 - after slowing to 2.3% and 1.8% in the previous two weeks.
Should the current rate of loan growth deceleration persist - and there is nothing to suggest otherwise - the US will post its first negative loan growth, or rather loan contraction since the financial crisis, in roughly 4 to 6 weeks..
