Quelle: bloomberg.com
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Posts mit dem Label Warning werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Freitag, 9. September 2016
Außenhandel: Deutsche Exporte brechen signifikant ein
Auf Jahressicht (YoY%) ergibt sich sogar ein Export-Rückgang war ca. 10% - das ist der stärkste Rückgang seit 2009 (!):
Freitag, 5. August 2016
Mittwoch, 22. Juni 2016
BrExit: Soros, Rothschild und Osborne warnen vor drastischen Folgen
Die Medien-Kampagnen rund um den kontroversen BrExit laufen kurz vor der Entscheidung natürlich wie erwartet besonders heiß. Lesenswerter Bericht auf Zerohedge:
The Big Guns Are Out: Soros, Rothschild Warn Of Brexit Doom; Osborne Threatens With "Suspending" Market
Just yesterday, we recounted the story of "Black Wednesday" when on September 16, 1992, the UK was forced out of the EU’s exchange-rate mechanism, or ERM, when the BOE tapped out and allowed the British pound to float freely, leading to 15% losses in the sterling. As we noted, this was George Soros' infamous trade which "broke the Bank of England" and made the Hungarian richer by over $1.5 bilion.
24 years later Soros is back, and this time he is warning against the kind of devaluation that made him a billionaire and which he believes will be unleashed by Brexit, when in a Guardian Op-Ed he wrote that U.K. voters are “grossly underestimating” the true costs of a vote to leave the EU, saying that there would be an "immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs."
He predicts that the pound would decline "precipitously", seeing a gargantuan drop of at least 15% and possibly >20% to below $1.15. Considering it has now become trendy for analysts to come up with ever "doomier" forecasts of just how low cable would plunge in case of Brexit, we are surprised Soros stopped there.
Here Soros makes the distinction how the collapse in cable would be different from the one that made him richer by saying thatthis devaluation wouldn’t be “healthy” like the one in 1992 because BOE wouldn’t cut rates, U.K. has large current account deficit and devaluation unlikely to improve manufacturing exports this time. Just don't tell that to the BOJ, which would gladly leave the EU - twice if it had to - if it meant a 20% devaluation.
“Brexit would make some people very rich - but most voters considerably poorer”; “there are speculative forces in the, markets much bigger and more powerful" than the speculators that profited from the 1967 devaluation at Britain’s expense. "A vote to leave could see the week end with a Black Friday, and serious consequences for ordinary people.."
The Big Guns Are Out: Soros, Rothschild Warn Of Brexit Doom; Osborne Threatens With "Suspending" Market
Just yesterday, we recounted the story of "Black Wednesday" when on September 16, 1992, the UK was forced out of the EU’s exchange-rate mechanism, or ERM, when the BOE tapped out and allowed the British pound to float freely, leading to 15% losses in the sterling. As we noted, this was George Soros' infamous trade which "broke the Bank of England" and made the Hungarian richer by over $1.5 bilion.
24 years later Soros is back, and this time he is warning against the kind of devaluation that made him a billionaire and which he believes will be unleashed by Brexit, when in a Guardian Op-Ed he wrote that U.K. voters are “grossly underestimating” the true costs of a vote to leave the EU, saying that there would be an "immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs."
He predicts that the pound would decline "precipitously", seeing a gargantuan drop of at least 15% and possibly >20% to below $1.15. Considering it has now become trendy for analysts to come up with ever "doomier" forecasts of just how low cable would plunge in case of Brexit, we are surprised Soros stopped there.
Here Soros makes the distinction how the collapse in cable would be different from the one that made him richer by saying thatthis devaluation wouldn’t be “healthy” like the one in 1992 because BOE wouldn’t cut rates, U.K. has large current account deficit and devaluation unlikely to improve manufacturing exports this time. Just don't tell that to the BOJ, which would gladly leave the EU - twice if it had to - if it meant a 20% devaluation.
“Brexit would make some people very rich - but most voters considerably poorer”; “there are speculative forces in the, markets much bigger and more powerful" than the speculators that profited from the 1967 devaluation at Britain’s expense. "A vote to leave could see the week end with a Black Friday, and serious consequences for ordinary people.."
Quelle: Sputnik
Montag, 23. Mai 2016
Japan: Exporte und Importe brechen signifikant ein
Weitere negative News und Vorzeichen kommen die Tage aus Japan. Die Importe und Exporte befinden sich nun bereits seit einigen Monaten auf Talfahrt und eine Besserung ist bis dato nicht in Sicht..
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Donnerstag, 31. März 2016
S&P 500 Unternehmen: Gewinn-Wachstum bricht dramatisch ein
Der Blick auf einen besonders brisanten Chart:
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Sonntag, 20. Dezember 2015
China, Schuldenkrise: Zinszahlungen durch Kreditaufnahme auf neuem Rekordniveau
Die schwerwiegende Schuldenkrise im Reich der Mitte verschärft sich weiter..
Quelle: bloomberg.com
Donnerstag, 12. November 2015
Montag, 28. September 2015
Dunkle Wolken am Horizont: Entwicklung der Bauholz-Preise in den USA signalisiert signifikanten Wirtschaftsabschwung
Sämtliche wichtige Indikatoren signalisieren in den USA seit geraumer Zeit eine zunehmende Schwäche der inländischen Wirtschaft.
Die Performance der Bauholz-Preise spricht hierbei besonders Bände. Auf Sicht von 12 Monaten sind die Holzpreise im Zuge des globalen Rohstoffpreis-Crashs um mehr als 1/3 eingebrochen.
Credit to Zerohedge.
Die Performance der Bauholz-Preise spricht hierbei besonders Bände. Auf Sicht von 12 Monaten sind die Holzpreise im Zuge des globalen Rohstoffpreis-Crashs um mehr als 1/3 eingebrochen.
Credit to Zerohedge.
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Sonntag, 16. August 2015
This Alarming Indicator Is Back At A Level Last Seen 10 Days Before The Bear Stearns Collapse
Hierzu 3 eindrucksvolle Charts - credit to Zerohedge:
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/14/2015 21:50 -0400
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Quote:
This Alarming Indicator Is Back At A Level Last Seen 10 Days Before The Bear Stearns Collapse
One of the most disturbing and recurring themes highlighted on this site over the past year has been the ever greater disconnect between the worlds of equity and fixed income, whether in terms of implied volatility, or actual underlying risk..
Dienstag, 11. August 2015
Wenn Hindenburg-Omen verhängnisvoll sind
Informativer Beitrag - credit to Zerohedge:
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/09/2015 21:20 -0400
When Hindenburg Omens Are Ominous
I’ve frequently noted that Hindenburg “Omens” in their commonly presented form (NYSE new highs and new lows both greater than 2.5% of issues traded) appear so frequently that they have very little practical use, especially when they occur as single instances. While a large number of simultaneous new highs and new lows is indicative of some amount of internal dispersion across individual stocks, this situation often occurs in markets that have been somewhat range-bound..
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Quelle: zerohedge.com
Donnerstag, 7. August 2014
Öl-, Gas- und Energiebranche: Sinkende Kapitaleffizienz und enorme Kapitalintensität
Dazu ein informativer Artikel von Dave Forest bei oilprice.com, der auf einen jüngsten Bericht der US EIA eingeht:
Is This Trend A Killer for Oil and Gas?
By Dave Forest | Wed, 06 August 2014 19:02 | 1
Very interesting research released last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Showing that the domestic E&P sector may be headed for some difficult times.
The Administration calculated the spending habits of oil and gas firms operating within the U.S. Tallying both incoming operational cash flow and outgoing capital expenditures for these companies.
The results are surprising. Revealing that today’s oil and gas sector is spending well beyond its means.
Just look at the chart below. Showing that 2013 operational cash flow for the industry ran approximately $575 billion—while spending ("uses of cash") averaged just under $700 billion. Meaning that firms spent over $100 billion more than they made from operations..
Link: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-This-Trend-A-Killer-for-Oil-and-Gas.html
Is This Trend A Killer for Oil and Gas?
By Dave Forest | Wed, 06 August 2014 19:02 | 1
Very interesting research released last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Showing that the domestic E&P sector may be headed for some difficult times.
The Administration calculated the spending habits of oil and gas firms operating within the U.S. Tallying both incoming operational cash flow and outgoing capital expenditures for these companies.
The results are surprising. Revealing that today’s oil and gas sector is spending well beyond its means.
Just look at the chart below. Showing that 2013 operational cash flow for the industry ran approximately $575 billion—while spending ("uses of cash") averaged just under $700 billion. Meaning that firms spent over $100 billion more than they made from operations..
Link: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-This-Trend-A-Killer-for-Oil-and-Gas.html
Quelle: oilprice.com, US EIA
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