BrExit: Soros, Rothschild und Osborne warnen vor drastischen Folgen

Die Medien-Kampagnen rund um den kontroversen BrExit laufen kurz vor der Entscheidung natürlich wie erwartet besonders heiß. Lesenswerter Bericht auf Zerohedge:

The Big Guns Are Out: Soros, Rothschild Warn Of Brexit Doom; Osborne Threatens With "Suspending" Market

Just yesterday, we recounted the story of "Black Wednesday" when on September 16, 1992, the UK was forced out of the EU’s exchange-rate mechanism, or ERM, when the BOE tapped out and allowed the British pound to float freely, leading to 15% losses in the sterling. As we noted, this was George Soros' infamous trade which "broke the Bank of England" and made the Hungarian richer by over $1.5 bilion.

24 years later Soros is back, and this time he is warning against the kind of devaluation that made him a billionaire and which he believes will be unleashed by Brexit, when in a Guardian Op-Ed he wrote that U.K. voters are “grossly underestimating” the true costs of a vote to leave the EU, saying that there would be an "immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs."

He predicts that the pound would decline "precipitously", seeing a gargantuan drop of at least 15% and possibly >20% to below $1.15. Considering it has now become trendy for analysts to come up with ever "doomier" forecasts of just how low cable would plunge in case of Brexit, we are surprised Soros stopped there.

Here Soros makes the distinction how the collapse in cable would be different from the one that made him richer by saying thatthis devaluation wouldn’t be “healthy” like the one in 1992 because BOE wouldn’t cut rates, U.K. has large current account deficit and devaluation unlikely to improve manufacturing exports this time. Just don't tell that to the BOJ, which would gladly leave the EU - twice if it had to - if it meant a 20% devaluation.

“Brexit would make some people very rich - but most voters considerably poorer”; “there are speculative forces in the, markets much bigger and more powerful" than the speculators that profited from the 1967 devaluation at Britain’s expense. "A vote to leave could see the week end with a Black Friday, and serious consequences for ordinary people.."

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-20/big-guns-are-out-soros-rothschild-warn-brexit-doom-osborne-threatens-suspending-mark

Quelle: Sputnik

Rohstoff-TV, Interview: Aktuelle Makro-Perspektiven auf Gold

Mein aktuelles Interview mit Jochen Staiger @ Rohstoff-TV über brisante Makro-Perspektiven auf Gold, die Finanzmärkte, den möglichen BrExit und Co...

Link: http://rohstoff-tv.net/c/mid,33298,Marktanalyse_und_Research/?v=296339

Quelle: Rohstoff-TV

Hedgefonds-Legende und Milliardär Stanley Druckenmiller platziert massive Wette auf Gold

Das wahre "smart money" positioniert sich weiter antizyklisch im hoch kontroversen Gold-Sektor:

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Loads Up On Gold, Makes It His Largest Position For First Time Ever

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2015 17:40 -0400

• Monetary Policy
 
• None

Over the past several years, one of the biggest critics of the Fed's ruinous monetary policy has been billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who in 2010 announced he would be shutting down his legendary Duquesne Capital Management, and convert it to a family office. Yet, despite his constant drumbeat of warnings that the period of ZIRP/QE/NIPR will end in tears, he had yet to put money where his mouth was (aside for a brief period in mid-2012 when we bought a lot of GLD calls, only to unwind the almost instantly).

This ended on June 30, when following Friday's filing by the Duquesne Family Office, we learned that as of the end of Q2, the largest position for Stanley Druckenmiller was none other than gold, following the purchase of 2.9 million shares of the GLD ETF shares. In other words, as of this moment, gold amount to over 20% of Druckenmiller's total holdings.

In a world in which starved for ideas alpha-chasers do anything and everything that billionaires report they did a month and a half ago, we wonder if this marks the end of the relentless liquidation in the GLD, which recently hit a multi-year low, as a result driving the price of paper gold to multi-year lows even as physical demand has approached record levels.

So with Druckenmiller now back and strapped in for the ride, we wonder which other prominent investor will promptly follow..?

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-16/billionaire-stanley-drucknemiller-loads-gold-makes-it-his-largest-position-first-tim

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Stanley-Druckenmiller-Ira-Sohn.jpg

Rohstoff- und Investoren-Legende Soros erhöht seine Wette auf einen Aktiencrash

Netter Bet vom legendären Haudegen George Soros:

"..Soros has once again increased his total SPY Put to a new record high of $2.2 billion, or nearly double the previous all time high, and a whopping 17% of his total AUM..."

Quelle: zerohedge.com, JPM

Quote:

Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, And Now Zell: The Billionaires Are All Quietly Preparing For The Plunge

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2014 17:03 -0400

• Carl Icahn
 
• Equity Markets
 
• fixed
 
• George Soros
 
• Janet Yellen
 
• Reality
 
• Recession
 
• Sam Zell
 
• SPY
 
• Volatility

"The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time," explains billionaire investor Sam Zell to CNBC this morning, adding that, "every company that's missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there's a demand issue; and when you got a demand issue it's hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high." Zell said he is being very cautious adding to stocks and cutting some positions because "I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking." Zell also discussed his view on Obama's Fed encouraging disparity and on tax inversions, but concludes, rather ominously, "this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn't such a terrible thing." Zell's calls should not be shocking following George Soros. Stan Druckenmiller, and Carl Icahn's warnings that there is trouble ahead..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/icahn-soros-druckenmiller-and-now-zell-billionaires-are-all-quietly-preparing-market

Interview mit Soros-Ziehsohn Stanley Druckenmiller

Worth reading :

Stanley Druckenmiller On China's Future And Investing In The New Normal

Stan Druckenmiller is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Duquesne Family Office. He founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981, which he ran until he closed the firm in 2010. Previously, he was a Managing Director at Soros Fund Management, where he served as Lead Portfolio Manager of the Quantum Fund and Chief Investment Officer of Soros..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stanley-druckenmiller-chinas-future-and-investing-new-normal

Interview mit dem CIO von BlackRock's Natural Resources Team

Lesenswertes Interview mit dem renommuierten BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Evy Hambro:

It’s an ever-changing landscape - That makes it interesting

The chief investment officer of BlackRock’s natural resources equity team talks to Matthew Jeynes about having ‘City DNA’ in his blood

With his family’s extensive history, it was always going to be inevitable that Evy Hambro would make a name for himself in the City. But how he came to head up BlackRock’s huge natural resources team and become one of the most recognisable faces in the investment industry comes mainly down to two men – George Soros and Jimmy Goldsmith..

Link: http://www.ftadviser.com/2013/06/10/investments/commodities/it-s-an-ever-changing-landscape-that-makes-it-interesting-gXfeodV1AP4jXeCAZ51WjM/article.html

Hedgefonds: Wetten auf steigenden Goldpreis fallen auf 5-Jahrestief

Könnte sich ebenfalls als klassischer Kontraindikator herausstellen, vom Contrarian Standpunkt sowieso (siehe u.a. Gold: Short-Quote an der COMEX steigt auf neues ATH und auch den 2. Bericht unten). Weiter sollte nicht vergessen werden, dass die Hedgefonds fast ausschließlich am Derivate- und ETF/ETP-Papiermarkt agieren:

Gold Bets Cut to Five-Year Low as Prices Whipsawed: Commodities

Hedge funds are the least bullish on gold in more than five years as speculation about the pace of money printing by central banks whipsawed prices, driving volatility to a 17-month high. 

Money managers cut their net-long position by 9 percent to 35,686 futures and options as of May 21, the lowest since July 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of short contracts rose 6.7 percent to a record 79,416. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities slid 2.1 percent, as investors became more bearish on coffee and wheat..

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-26/gold-bets-reach-five-year-low-with-prices-whipsawed-commodities.html

Gold Bug Hedge Funds Collectively Report Over $183mm In New Call Option Positions On Miners

While mainstream news sources continue the war against gold and gold-related investments, three of the world’s top performing hedge fund managers have been busy at work building speculative gold positions during the first quarter..

Link: http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-bug-hedge-funds-collectively-report-over-183mm-in-new-call-option-positions-on-miners/ 

Quelle: bigcharts.com

Soros erneut Contrarian: Kauf von Long-Positionen im GDX & GDXJ

Das Pokerspiel geht beim legendären Starinvestor und Hedgefonds-König George Soros in eine neue Runde. Nachdem sich Soros offiziell (!) in den letzten zwei Jahren überwiegend vom Gold abwendete, stockt er seine Investitionen in den letzten Wochen und Monaten wieder signifikant auf.

Anders als bei seinen letzten großen Engagements im Edelmetallsektor fährt der Altmeister aber nicht seine Bestände bei Gold-ETPs (primär SPDR/GLD) hoch, sondern setzt verstärkt auf Goldminen-Aktien. Das ist auf vielen Ebenen nun eine spannende Aktion.

Wie ein SEC-Report diese Woche verlauten ließ, hat Soros Fund Management LLC imposante 1,1 Millionen Anteile am GDX Gold Miners Index (HUI ETF) zuletzt erworben. Soros zahlte im Schnitt knapp 38 USD pro Anteil und die gesamte Long-Position im GDX hat jetzt einen Wert von rund 100 Mio. USD. 

Noch sehr viel interessanter ist (atm) jedoch Soros' 2. Long-Call bei den Goldminen. Die Holdings im GDXJ Junior Miners Index fährt Soros auf 1,2 Mio. Anteile zwar runter, jedoch nur um neue 1,51 Mio. Call-Optionen auf den schwer angeschlagenen Juniorindex zu erwerben. Das entspricht einem ausgewiesenen Holding-Wert von ca. 25,2 Mio. USD und die Calls wurden bei einem GDXJ-Stand von unter 20 USD eingesammelt.

Der legendäre Investor nimmt bei den jüngsten Investitionen nun (wieder einmal) klar die Rolle des antizyklischen Investors und des Contrarians ein. Goldminen gehörten in den letzten Jahren zu den schlechtesten Performern weltweit und mussten erst im April einen weiteren Crash verkraften. Die Aktien der Goldproduzenten stehen im Verhältnis zum Goldpreis - aufgrund einer Explosion von verschiedenen Belastungsfaktoren inkl. eskalierenden Kosten - auf einem Allzeittief (vgl. HUI/XAU:Gold Ratio). Der Junior-Goldsektor steht bekanntlich noch erheblich schlechter da und notiert auf einem 30-Jahrestief. 

Review: Soros bewies nicht nur während seiner langen, glorreichen Karriere mit etlichen Investitionen ein exzellentes Händchen, sondern zeigte auch im Goldsektor in den letzten 10 Jahren oft ein wahrlich goldenes Timing (vgl. auch Soros' reale Ambitionen abseits der Hypes in den kommerziellen Medien).