Big Picture Liquidität: Konsolidierte Bilanzsummen der Notenbanken fallen

Die ultra-expansive Geldpolitik der Notenbanken neigt sich in 2018 vorerst zu Ende. Es laufen bereits die Wetten, wie lange der Markt ohne große Liquiditätsspritzen "überleben" kann..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Big Picture: Bilanzsumme der führenden Zentralbanken knackt die Marke von 15 Billionen US-Dollar

Alleine seit Jahresanfang haben die Zentralbanken der westlichen Welt ihre Bilanzen um irrwitzige 1,5 Billionen US-Dollar erweitert..

Folgen der Aufkaufprogramme der Notenbanken (QE): Asset-Price Inflation auf Rekordhoch

Während die Inflation in der realen Wirtschaft weitgehend auf der Strecke bleibt, werden die Aktienkurse, klassischen Vermögensanlageklassen, Finanzaktiva etc. durch die gigantischen QE-Programme (global auf ATH) weltweit kontinuierlich befeuert:

Quelle: Haver, Datastream

Big Picture: Bilanzsummen der wichtigsten Notenbanken steigen auf neues Rekordhoch

Die gigantische Aufblähung der Bilanzsummen der Notenbanken geht in die nächste Runde. Die aggregierte Summe der Bilanzen nähert sich bereits der Marke von unfassbaren 20 Billionen US-Dollar bzw. 40% des GDPs der involvierten Nationen..

Quelle: Citi Research, Haver

Leitmarkt erreicht neuen Meilenstein: Amerikanische Aktien-Indizes markieren neue Rekordstände

Die Mega-Hausse am amerikanischen Aktienmarkt geht weiter. Der Dow Jones, S&P 500 und der Nasdaq Composite schließen diese Woche auf neuen Rekordständen. Die Luft wird zunehmend dünn - nicht nur im Hinblick auf die fundamentalen Bewertungen und Gewinnerwartungen. Ansonsten nährt die Hausse bekanntlich die Hausse. Daneben befeuern die Zentralbanken (Globales Rekord-QE) und das historische Niedrigzinsumfeld die Kapitalmärkte weiterhin mit Unmengen an Liquidität..

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Quelle: stockcharts.com

Big Picture: QE-Wahn läuft weiter, expansive Geldpolitik auf Allzeithoch

Zwar hat die FED die QE-Maßnahmen eingestellt, doch die expansive Geldpolitik in der westlichen Welt bewegt sich auf einem Rekordhoch. Dies ist natürlich auf die extrem expansive Geldmarktpolitik in der EU und in Japan zurückzuführen..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Big Picture: Globale Anleihe-Renditen fallen auf neues Rekordtief

Der epische Fall der Anleihen-Renditen weltweit geht in die nächste Runde..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

US-Dollar vs. Yen: Japanische Währung steigt auf neues Jahreshoch

Der USD steht zum Yen in den letzten Tagen erheblich unter Druck, was zu zahlreichen Auflösungen von Carry Trades führt..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Global monetary policy: More Cheap Money, More QE, More Central Bank Stimulus, More Liquidity, More Drugs

Global monetary policy is completely out of control.

To the point..

Quelle: Private Twitter Stream

FED, Rate Hike Odds: QE4 Only A Matter Of Time? (II)

No comment necessary - credit to @Not_Jim_Cramer:

FED, Monetary Policy: QE4 Only A Matter Of Time? (I)

Drei Charts zum Nachdenken - credit to FRED and ZH:

Quelle: https://research.stlouisfed.org

Quelle: https://research.stlouisfed.org

Quelle: https://research.stlouisfed.org

Big Picture, Aktien-Markt, Notenbank-Blase: Was passiert ohne die FED-Drogen? QE4 nur eine Frage der Zeit?

Impressive Chart und ein sehr wichtiger Reminder für alle Börsianer - credit to JPM and ZH:

Quelle: https://www.jpmorgan.com

USA: Assets der Zentralbank FED betragen nun 25% des GDPs

Out of control - crazy..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quote:

What Happened The Last Time The Fed's Balance Sheet Hit 25% Of GDP

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/what-happened-last-time-feds-balance-sheet-hit-25-gdp

Wahres "Hard Asset": Gold in Rubel, Euro, Yen und kanadischem Dollar geht durch die Decke

Ein aktueller Beitrag hierzu von Zerohedge:

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Euro Edition

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/23/2015 08:09 -0500

• Central Banks
 
• European Central Bank
 
• Eurozone
 
• Flight to Safety

Submitted by John Rubino via Dollar Collapse blog,

Yesterday the European Central Bank acknowledged that the currency it manages is being sucked into a deflationary vortex. It responded in the usual way with, in effect, a massive devaluation. Eurozone citizens have also responded predictably, by converting their unbacked, make-believe, soon-to-be-worth-a-lot-less paper money into something tangible. They’re bidding gold up dramatically.

So after falling hard in 2013 and treading water for most of 2014, the euro price of gold has gone parabolic in the space of a couple of months. This sudden rather than gradual awakening is the standard pattern for a currency crisis, mainly because it takes a long time for most people to figure out their government is clueless and/or lying. But once they do figure it out, they act quickly..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-23/what-gold-does-currency-crisis-euro-edition

Quelle: goldprice.org

Quelle: goldprice.org

Quelle: goldprice.org

Nach QE-Ankündung der EZB: Euro mit dem größten Tagesverlust seit 2011

Und die krasse Talfahrt geht weiter..

Quelle: zerohedge.com, bloomberg.com

Goldman nach SNB-Entscheidung: "Major QE-Programm durch EZB in Vorbereitung"

Wild times ahead!

Crude, Gold Jump After Goldman Says SNB Action Hints At "Massive ECB QE"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2015 09:12 -0500

• Crude
 
• Crude Oil
 
• Goldman Sachs
 
• goldman sachs

 

"This is a massive message from SNB to the market : ECB is going to do QE, and it’s going to be big..." notes Goldman Sachs and it appears Gold and Crude Oil are starting to get on that bandwagon.

Gold back above $1255..

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-15/crude-gold-jump-after-goldman-says-snb-action-hints-massive-ecb-qe

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Chinesische Goldnachfrage: Goldbörse in Shanghai übertrumpft Handelsplatz in Hongkong um Längen

Aktueller Bericht von Mineweb:

Making sense of Chinese gold demand

How much has Chinese gold demand fallen this year – 50% or perhaps only 10%? We unravel the conflicting data, which will ultimately be key to where the gold price is headed.

RELATED STORIES

• Greenspan's 'Golden Rule: Why China is buying'
• China should aim for 8,500t gold reserve - China Gold president
• China gold demand surging again
• HK-China gold exports weak again, but does it matter?
• Why does the WGC hugely understate Chinese gold demand?

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 13 Oct 2014 

LONDON (MINEWEB) - 

There is no doubt at all that Chinese demand for physical gold is having, and will continue to have, a huge impact on global gold flows and on the supply/demand balance, but making sense of the various figures quoted by the media is difficult and often counter-intuitive. 

For the serious follower of gold, perhaps there are two statistical analysts whose handles on Chinese data should be an absolute must to follow as they look far deeper into the statistics that are available to view – the Hong Kong net gold import figures into mainland China and the withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) – the true indicator of Chinese physical gold demand. SGE figures are published weekly in Chinese so tend to be ignored by most of the global media while Hong Kong gold import/export figures are released monthly (in English) and are seized upon, misleadingly of late, by the press as a proxy for what is actually going on in terms of total Chinese gold demand.

Two of the best statistical analysts for understanding what is really going on in Chinese gold demand are Netherlands-based Koos Jansen, who has his own website ingoldwetrust.ch, but nowadays writes mostly for Singapore gold dealer bullionstar.com, and Australia’s chart king, Nick Laird, who again publishes his data on his own site sharelynx.com, and many significant gold-related ones on goldbroker.com. Do take a look at these sites for an understanding of what is actually happening now in terms of Chinese gold demand, as ever since the second quarter of the current year Hong Kong import/export statistics have become further removed from being a true indicator of Chinese demand and imports. This is because the Middle Kingdom has hugely eased the path for gold to be imported into China through other ports of entry which are now handling the major part of the country’s gold coming in from abroad.

This becomes hugely apparent if one views Nick Laird’s latest chart showing Hong Kong net gold exports to China, SGE withdrawals and the ratio between the two. As can be seen from the chart (shown below) from the period between mid 2011 up to April of the current year there was a strong correlation between the two main sets of statistics, but for the past four months the two sets of figures have drifted hugely apart as the new gold import routes have opened up. As the chart showing the correlation between the two shows, Hong Kong net gold export figures into the Chinese mainland are currently running at only around 15% of SGE withdrawals and falling – yet still some of the mainstream media has taken these falling Hong Kong figures as a direct indicator (and a very misleading one at that) of an enormous drop in Chinese gold demand.

If one looks at SGE withdrawals on a month by month basis, it is also true that these do show a mid-year decline in Chinese demand – but not by nearly as much as a reliance on the Hong Kong figures would suggest – with a climb back to around 2013 demand levels in August, and from data picked up by Koos Jansen (and no doubt by Nick Laird too) this demand has been accelerating. For example the latest available weekly withdrawal figure from the SGE was a very large 44 tonnes, following on from an even larger 50 tonnes the previous week. These figures were immediately ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday so will probably have been distorted higher but taken with the prior weekly figures the indication is that total Chinese SGE withdrawals during September will have been around 190 tonnes plus. This, of course, equates to an annual rate of over 2 200 tonnes. This annual level will not be achieved in 2014 due to the weaker mid-year demand, but is an indicator that full year Chinese demand remains at a very high level indeed and the gloomy mainstream media talk of a 40%-50% downturn this year should be taken as absolute rubbish. At current demand levels – and the final quarter of the year tends to be strong in China – we are looking at perhaps as little as a 10%-15% decline from the huge 2013 record.

Chart published courtesy of www.goldbroker.com .  All rights reserved.  Direct link to original chart

But how much should be read into these figures in terms of likely gold prices ahead? In 2013, for example, the gold price fell back sharply despite the huge demand from the East and Middle East. This was primarily because of the very large outflows from the gold ETFs which primarily took place in the main gold price-setting markets of the West. This year Eastern demand may have fallen back a little, but has picked up strongly in the past few weeks, and although we have seen some gold liquidations out of the major ETFs in the West this has been nowhere near on the scale we saw a year ago – indeed in some months the ETFs have actually seen small inflows.

With the latest Reuters reports of rising gold purchasing in China and India again – the two biggest global markets for gold - and increasing gold premiums in both countries over and above the London price - we could well be poised for a significant turning point in the gold price based on fundamentals at least. By all accounts gold mine production is peaking while demand still continues to rise and gold supply, which is calculated by precious metals analysts Metals Focus as having been in deficit last year, could be heading that way again this year too.   

There is considerable geopolitical turmoil in the world which has to boost safe haven demand, at least in some areas and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the global economy is not recovering as fast as many had hoped. The US Fed is getting nervous about the idea of allowing interest rates to rise, while the Eurozone is looking at more Quantitative Easing. 

All these factors might be seen as positive for gold, and all things being equal would probably lead to a sharp rise in the gold price in the months ahead. But then all things are not equal.  The western commodity markets are hugely distorted by the big money playing the futures market with amounts of paper gold enormously in excess of physical gold availability perhaps by as much as a factor of 100 or more. Should market participants start demanding settlement in physical gold there would be a massive increase in gold price and undoubtedly some of the big short position holders would be bankrupted. But, unfortunately for the pro-gold sector, this seems very unlikely to happen.

However there has also been a move in the East to set up new international commodity exchanges which will deal only in physical metal – notably in Shanghai with the international arm of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGEI) located in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and in Singapore with the Singapore Precious Metals Exchange (SGPMX). There are also reports that CME Group will launch a physically deliverable contract in Hong Kong later this year and in the Middle East, Dubai is said to be preparing to launch a physical contract too. The effect of these new trading options will be limited initially, but as they gain traction and physical gold continues to move from West to East, which shows no signs of coming to an end, then there could be some dramatic gold price moves ahead in the medium to long term.

Quelle: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=256223&sn=Detail

Quote:

Offizielle Bestätigung vom SGE-Chef: Chinesische Goldnachfrage lag 2013 bei 2.000 physischen Tonnen

Link: http://rohstoffaktien.blogspot.de/2014/10/offizielle-bestatigung-vom-sge-chef.html

Die gute FED, die fröhliche Papiergeldflut und das böse, böse Gold

Aktueller, lesenswerter Beitrag von ZH:

Paul Craig Roberts: "A Rigged Gold Price Distorts Perception Of Economic Reality"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/24/2014 20:43 -0400

• Bear Stearns
 
• Bond
 
• Brazil
 
• BRICs
 
• China
 
• European Central Bank
 
• Federal Reserve
 
• Futures market
 
• Gambling
 
• Housing Market
 
• India
 
• Insider Trading
• Japan
 
• Monetary Policy
 
• NYMEX
 
• Quantitative Easing
 
• Reality
 
• Reserve Currency
 
• Switzerland
 
• Yuan

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts & Dave Kranzler,

The Federal Reserve and its bullion bank agents (JP Morgan, Scotia, and HSBC) have been using naked short-selling to drive down the price of gold since September 2011. The latest containment effort began in mid-July of this year, after gold had moved higher in price from the beginning of June and was threatening to take out key technical levels, which would have triggered a flood of buying from hedge funds.

The Fed and its agents rig the gold price in the New York Comex futures (paper gold) market. The bullion banks have the ability to print an unlimited supply of gold contracts which are sold in large volumes at times when Comex activity is light.

Generally, on the other side of the trade the buyers of contracts are large hedge funds and other speculators, who use the contracts to speculate on the direction of the gold price. The hedge funds and speculators have no interest in acquiring physical gold and settle their bets in cash, which makes it possible for the bullion banks to sell claims to gold that they cannot back with physical metal. Contracts sold without underlying gold to back them are called “uncovered contracts” or “naked shorts.” It is illegal to engage in naked shorting in the stock and bond markets, but it is permitted in the gold futures market.

The fact that the price of gold is determined in a futures market in which paper claims to gold are traded merely to speculate on price means that the Fed and its bank agents can suppress the price of gold even though demand for physical gold is rising. If there were strict requirements that gold shorts could not be naked and had to be backed by the seller’s possession of physical gold represented by the futures contract, the Federal Reserve and its agents would be unable to control the price of gold, and the gold price would be much higher than it is now.

Gold price manipulation is used when demand for delivery of gold bullion begins to put upward pressure on the price of gold and hedge funds speculate on the rising price of gold by purchasing large quantities of Comex futures contracts (paper gold). This speculation accelerates the upward move in the price of gold. The TF Metals Report provides a good description of this illegal manipulation of the gold market:

“Over a period of 10 weeks to begin the year, the Comex bullion banks were able to limit the rally to only 15% by supplying the “market” with 95,000 brand new naked short contracts. That’s 9.5MM ounces of make-believe paper gold or about 295 metric tonnes.

“Over a period of just 5 weeks in June and July, the Comex bullion banks were able to limit the rally to only 7% by supplying the “market” with 79,000 brand new naked short contracts. That’s 7.9MM ounces of make-believe paper gold or about 246 metric tonnes.” http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/429940

In previous columns, we have documented the heavy short-selling into light trading periods.
See for example: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/16/insider-trading-financial-terrorism-comex/

The bullion banks do not have nearly enough gold in their possession to make deliveries to the buyers if the buyers decide to stand for delivery per the terms of the paper gold contract. The reason this scheme works is because the majority of the buyers of the contracts are speculators, not gold purchasers, and never demand delivery of the gold. Instead, they settle the contracts in cash. They are looking for short-term trading profits, not for a gold hedge against currency inflation. If a majority of the longs (the purchasers of the contracts) required delivery of the gold, the regulators would not tolerate the extent to which gold is shorted with uncovered contracts.

In our opinion, the manipulation is illegal, because it is insider trading. The bullion banks that short the gold market are clearing members of the Comex/NYMEX/CME. In that role, the bullion banks have access to the computer system used to clear and settle trades, which means that the bullion banks have access to all the trading positions, including those of the hedge funds. When the hedge funds are in the deepest, the bullion banks dump naked shorts on the Comex, driving down the futures price, which triggers selling from stop-loss orders and margin calls that drive the price down further. Then the bullion banks buy the contracts at a lower price than they sold and pocket the difference, simultaneously serving the Fed by protecting the dollar from the Fed’s loose monetary policy by lowering the gold price and preventing the concern that a rising gold price would bring to the dollar.

Since mid-July, nearly every night in the US the price of gold remains steady or drifts higher. This is when the eastern hemisphere markets are open and the market players are busy buying physical gold for which delivery is mandatory. But as regular as clockwork, following the close of the Asian markets, the London and New York paper gold markets open, and the price of gold is immediately taken lower as paper gold contracts flood into the market setting a negative tone for the day’s trading.

Gold serves as a warning for aware people that financial and economic trouble are brewing. For instance, from the period of time just before the tech bubble collapsed (January 2000) until just before the collapse of Bear Stearns triggered the Great Financial Crisis (March 2008), gold rose in value from $250 to $1020 per ounce, or just over 400%. Moreover, in the period since the Great Financial Collapse, gold has risen 61% despite claims that the financial system was repaired. It was up as much as 225% (September 2011) before the Fed began the systematic take-down and containment of gold in order to protect the dollar from the massive creation of new dollars required by Quantitative Easing.

The US economy and financial system are in worse condition than the Fed and Treasury claim and the financial media reports. Both public and private debt burdens are high. Corporations are borrowing from banks in order to buy back their own stocks. This leaves corporations with new debt but without income streams from new investments with which to service the debt. Retail stores are in trouble, including dollar store chains. The housing market is showing signs of renewed downturn. The September 16 release of the 2013 Income and Poverty report shows that real median household income has declined to the level in 1994 two decades ago and is actually lower than in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The combination of high debt and decline in real income means that there is no engine to drive the economy.

In the 21st century, US debt and money creation has not been matched by an increase in real goods and services. The implication of this mismatch is inflation. Without the price-rigging by the bullion banks, gold and silver would be reflecting these inflation expectations.

The dollar is also in trouble because its role as world reserve currency is threatened by the abuse of this role in order to gain financial hegemony over others and to punish with sanctions those countries that do not comply with the goals of US foreign policy. The Wolfowitz Doctrine, which is the basis of US foreign policy, says that it is imperative for Washington to prevent the rise of other countries, such as Russia and China, that can limit the exercise of US power.

Sanctions and the threat of sanctions encourage other countries to leave the dollar payments system and to abandon the petrodollar. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have formed to do precisely that. Russia and China have arranged a massive long-term energy deal that avoids use of the US dollar. Both countries are settling their trade accounts with each other in their own currencies, and this practice is spreading. China is considering a gold-backed yuan, which would make the Chinese currency highly desirable as a reserve asset. It is possible that the Fed’s attack on gold is also aimed at making Chinese and Russian gold accumulation less supportive of their currencies. A currency linked to a falling gold price is not the same as a currency linked to a rising gold price.

It is unclear whether the new Chinese gold exchange in Shanghai will displace the London and New York futures markets. Naked short-selling is not permitted in the Chinese gold exchange. The world could end up with two gold futures markets: one based on assessments of reality, and the other based on gambling and price-rigging.

The future will also determine whether the role of reserve currency has been overtaken by time. The US dollar took that role in the aftermath of World War II, a time when the US had the only industrial economy that had not been destroyed in the war. A stable means of settling international accounts was needed. Today there are many economies that have tradable currencies, and accounts can be settled between countries in their own currencies. There is no longer a need for a single reserve currency. As this realization spreads, pressure on the dollar’s value will intensify.

For a period the Federal Reserve can support the dollar’s exchange value by pressuring Japan and the European Central Bank to print their currencies with which to support the dollar with purchases in the foreign exchange market. Other countries, such as Switzerland, will print their own currencies so as not to endanger their exports by a rise in the dollar price of their exports. But eventually the large US trade deficits produced by offshoring the production of goods and services sold into US markets and the collapse of the middle class and tax base caused by jobs offshoring will destroy the value of the US dollar.

When that day arrives, US living standards, already endangered, will plummet. American power will have been destroyed by corporate greed and the Fed’s policy of sacrificing the US economy in order to save four or five mega-banks, whose former executives control the Fed, the US Treasury, and the federal financial regulatory agencies.

Quelle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-24/paul-craig-roberts-rigged-gold-price-distorts-perception-economic-reality

FOMC Meeting 18. Juni 2014: Yellen Statements

Die folgenden Statements von Yellen bei der traditionellen Präsentation der FOMC-Ergebnisse aka Muppet Show kann man unkommentiert stehen lassen. Das Kartenhaus der FED wird im großen Bild immer fragiler und wackliger:

Quelle: boerse-go.de

Update:

Das folgende Statement schießt natürlich wieder den Vogel komplett ab, göttlich! Niemand kann der guten Yellen vorwerfen, sie habe keinen Humor:

"..Yellen: Es ist von zentraler Bedeutung, dass der Bankensektor stärker (als vor der Finanzkrise) reguliert werden muss.."

Big Picture: Die extreme Korrelation der FED-Bilanz und dem S&P 500

Dazu ein aktueller Beitrag von zerohedge:

How Much More Upside Is There? 

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/06/2014 10:22 -0400 

For 5 years the correlation between the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the growth of the S&P 500 has risen dramatically. Since QE3 was unveiled, the correlation is converging on 1 which of course is just happy coincidence and nothing to do with the free and easy flow of liquidity that month after month of Fed largesse has created. The problem is we now know that the hurdles to a Fed un-Taper are very high and so we can extrapolate the end-point for the Fed's balance sheet and where stocks would trade at that point. The S&P 500's recent exuberance has priced in the total expansion of the Fed's balance sheet to the end of the taper, so how much more upside is there..?  

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-06/how-much-more-upside-there 

Quelle: zerohedge.com 

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Quelle: zerohedge.com